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Is this the most likely scenario? Novak to rule until 2017 and the next generation of players such as Zverev and Kokkinakis to take over in 2018?
 

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One of 1995+ guns should make a slam final 2018. and that's it.

Top 8 by the end of 2018.

No1e, OBE, Nishi, Raonic, Dimitrov, Cilic, Federer + one of Kyrgios, Coric, Nadal, Berdych, Thiem, Stan.

2019. one of Zverev, Kokk, Chung, Rublev, Kozlov might make top 10 too, and couple of others top 20.
 

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There's also Cilic, Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov. We're likely to see a transitional period with many different Slam winners. I'm banking on Aliassime to start dominating by 2019/2020.
 

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Yes, by 2018 Djoker will age out and Karlovic should step it up another rung and replace him
 

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For me it's hard to imagine tennis without the big 3 after so many years at the top. There could be a period with many different slam winners but we can't predict when the next dominator (or dominators) will appear. It could be in 3 years or in 10 years.
 

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I would like to know according to which formula are you calculating such things as decline or breakthrough of a players that precisely.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Father Time
Today's players are more proffesional, take far better care of their body and diet than previous generations. This should consequently increase their tennis life.

I would like to know according to which formula are you calculating such things as decline or breakthrough of a players that precisely.
Is your eyesight good? Read again more carefully my opening post and you'll see that I put the question mark.
 

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Father Time
That is a false assumption.
Djokovic will have an improved Agassi like career in his 30s. He will win at least 3-4 slams after turning 30.

And how much will he win in the next 2 years until he turns 30?
That is the big question.
 

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For me it's hard to imagine tennis without the big 3 after so many years at the top. There could be a period with many different slam winners but we can't predict when the next dominator (or dominators) will appear. It could be in 3 years or in 10 years.
WELL! If by dominator, you mean a player capable of going double figures in slam count. It could be a decade or more.

Remember there was 13 years between the END of BORG and the START of SAMPRAS. In between we had 5 TIER 2 greats. McEnroe, LENDL, Wilander, BECKER, Edberg. There may be a period like that again. As we have had three absolute phenomenons playing around the same time. With Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.

The thing is, I don't think Djokovic will be done by the end of 2017. He is so fit and driven. I believe he could still win slams in 2018. From 2019 into the 2020s that's when there will be a REAL changing of the guard.
 

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Remember there was 13 years between the END of BORG and the START of SAMPRAS. In between we had 5 TIER 2 greats. McEnroe, LENDL, Wilander, BECKER, Edberg. There may be a period like that again. As we have had three absolute phenomenons playing around the same time. With Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.

The thing is, I don't think Djokovic will be done by the end of 2017. He is so fit and driven. I believe he could still win slams in 2018. From 2019 into the 2020s that's when there will be a REAL changing of the guard.
That's what I have been feeling so far as well. Of course, Novak may decline earlier, though rather due to factors which are yet unknown to the public and his fans.
 

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djokovic will probably dominate for another 4 years with murray pinching a slam here and there.
Take a year off that and you've got it right. Djokovic will be a force until Wimbledon 2018. Then he will start to fade to a degree than he struggles to even make Slam finals.

What the GREAT MYSTERY IS RIGHT NOW. WHO!!!!! Will be the first player after the big 3 to win 8 plus slams. Do we see them on the tour yet? Or will an unknown phenomenon emerge from some training academy. And sweep all before us. That's the exciting part. Because I gotta tell you I don't see anything out there RIGHT NOW. That has me thinking yup this ones gonna be GREAT!
 

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That's what I have been feeling so far as well. Of course, Novak may decline earlier, though rather due to factors which are yet unknown to the public and his fans.
True only times gonna tell. How badly does Novak want that FO? I think he will get one in the next two years. Wawrinka has to start declining soon. Or he is another freak. If he keeps winning slams into his thirties.
 

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Who can honestly say? So far the signs look good. Novak is still very fit, doesn't get injured much and is proving that he can dominate. In his press conference after the Wimbledon final Novak said that he "doesn't feel old" and "still feels good" which is great to hear. I think he could dominate for a very long time if he keeps up his motivation and fitness. But we've seen how hard it is to predict something in tennis even one year into the future, never mind 3 or 4 years ahead.
 
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