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ИДЕМО НОЛЕ
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Djokovic is 300ish points more than Nadal and some 2500 over Federer and Thiem.

If Federer with 2000ish points and Thiem with 1000ish points to defend in February/March + Sunshine Double, do not seem to be a Threat...... then both Nadal and him have won less than 200 points in the same period.

It is a lot of points to improve with Dubai/Acapulco IW and Miami so more or less 2500 possible points to be played and earned.

Nadal regaining #1 is still very possible in this period
 

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Looking at the Top 4's points and schedule until Miami:

PlayerCurrent ptsPts behind #1ScheduleDefending ptsMin ptsMax pts
Djokovic9720-Dubai (500), IW, Miami135958512085
Nadal9395325Acapulco (500), IW, Miami405899011490
Federer71302590Dubai (500), IW, Miami210050307530
Thiem70452675Buenos Aires (250), Rio (500), IW, Miami101060358605

Needless to say, Nadal is a big threat while Fed and Thiem can't mathematically pass Djokovic by the end of Miami. Fed is defending a ton of points and could be passed by Thiem and Medvedev, who also defends very little

If Djokovic can keep pace with Nadal, he's in good shape to pass Sampras in the all-time weeks at #1 list before the clay season starts (currently 10 weeks behind)
 

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NAPRED NOLE
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Djokovic only won one tournament from here until Wimbledon last year. That means he’s got a lot of points to gain, I like his chances of staying first at least until the start of Wimbledon.
 

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Your visions will happen
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Rafa and Nole both can gain points every tournament now till Rome. I won't be surprised if it flips back and forth and every week we have a calculation thread and each match will mean so much
 

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Good for Djoko that he has so few points to defend in the coming months. With IW+Miami around the corner normally I would be sure about his #1 position until Wimby but his great Masters1000 performances aren't a given anymore (he concentrates his energy for slams). There may be a few #1 changes in the coming months (between Djoko and Nadal) but hopefully Novak will keep it most of the time.
 

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WOAT Predictor
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Nole has not been overly concerned about Masters in recent times, or other MMs, so it will depend on what version shows up.
Nadal can gain more points as well in the clay masters, so will have to wait and see.
 

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I think 2020 is going to be a bit different for Novak. The Olympics are up + Novak is actively chasing that #1 record, so getting points will be a priority (Miami & IW).

Rafa can still the #1 spot back in Acapulco if he wins and Novak flops in Dubai.
 
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