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Nobody's chances to win RG are very high as long as Rafa plays. Having said that, Nole's chances to win are still fairly high compared to the rest of the field. He is the 2nd favorite. His clay game might not be quite what it once was. But who knows what happens if he gets Rafa into a dog fight..
 

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With all due respect what potential contender you mean, Berettini or perhabs Goffin?
With all due respect, my alibi is that i responded to a thread created over a week ago as to what Novak needed to do for best chances vs Nadal including skipping it to pave easier path for others but obviously pre-dating the official draw not to mention ever anticipating Nadal to b the no.3 seed.
Now that we see the draw/seeding w/ potential contenders Thiem, Tsitsi & Zverev only meeting likely either Nadal or Novak in final, a revaluation can b made. With that said, only likely question would b who is the stronger opponent for Nadal between Novak & Berreta in SF & until we see how each fares in the first week, difficult to determine.
 

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Discussion Starter · #44 ·
Yeah after this week Belgrade we have the confirmation what was already known. No second RG sadly or even beating Rafa.

His serve is really worrysome. If he keeps serving like that and losing service games, there wont be any chance at all. Could even lose before the QF. So there is no guarantee especially after entering the RG practice and tournament that late that he is reaching the QF.

Sandgren could be an akward / uncomfortable first test on clay if the American reaches his peak game and mind.

Dont get fooled by Rome. It is his best clay court tournament. Chatrier is a different clay surface and place.
 

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Yeah after this week Belgrade we have the confirmation what was already known. No second RG sadly or even beating Rafa.

His serve is really worrysome. If he keeps serving like that and losing service games, there wont be any chance at all. Could even lose before the QF. So there is no guarantee especially after entering the RG practice and tournament that late that he is reaching the QF.

Sandgren could be an akward / uncomfortable first test on clay if the American reaches his peak game and mind.

Dont get fooled by Rome. It is his best clay court tournament. Chatrier is a different clay surface and place.
You worry too much. Djoker doesn't give a shit about Belgrade two. This is just a fitness exercise. The game, endurance and draw are all there for Djoker. Rafa is bricking it after Rome and will be ruthlessly exposed in the semis. The only think that can stop this train is too many long matches before the semis. Djoker will go into Djokoking mode to stop this happening. The button will be pressed that is now reserved only for slams and select matches (see Tsitsipas Rome semi).The player from the other side could beat Djoker in the final if Rafa takes Djoker's legs away, but I don't see him letting that happen. The Spartan will appear 2012 AO final stylee.
 

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Discussion Starter · #46 ·
You worry too much. Djoker doesn't give a shit about Belgrade two. This is just a fitness exercise. The game, endurance and draw are all there for Djoker. Rafa is bricking it after Rome and will be ruthlessly exposed in the semis. The only think that can stop this train is too many long matches before the semis. Djoker will go into Djokoking mode to stop this happening. The button will be pressed that is now reserved only for slams and select matches (see Tsitsipas Rome semi).The player from the other side could beat Djoker in the final if Rafa takes Djoker's legs away, but I don't see him letting that happen. The Spartan will appear 2012 AO final stylee.
So how do you explain why he does not serve well then and sharpen it for RG ? Because there is a major problem he cant deal with. It is up and down this season and often down. Unreliable tool in his game, but it is a huge important one for him personally to be able to survive on clay. Without it, it means Sayonara. You will see.

Yes maybe it will be enough for 95 % of the players but we are talking about the title, not about anything less and that is not likely to happen at all and I had to come to realise that it will not be this year with his level... He had enough time, but it is not enough to prevail against the main rivals on clay and we do not even know yet who else besides Nadal and maybe Tsitsipas is going to peak in RG for a potential title or final run. 2015 Wawrinka could feed certain outsiders to reach their climax.

It falls with the serve. That is a reason why it is going to be frustrating with him as we know that he has the game and potential to win it (if Nadal allows it).
 

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Nole is too good to be ruled out. He's got fairly easy road to the SF, where he can meet Rafa and it's just one match. He won't be a favourite in the semi, but it will be a 40-60 match, not 5-95. If he wins that - he can take the title. Just look at this and see if there is a single match you would rule out Djoko:

Sandgren
Cuevas
Humbert
Goffin / Musetti / de Minaur
Berrettini / Federer
Nadal
Zverev / Tsitsipas / Thiem / Medvedev

is there a single match except Nadal in which you wouldn't put Djoko as the fav ? If Thiem miracolously finds his form and motivation it will be a 50-50 at best. Tsitsi would also be close to 50-50

C'mon, Djokovic - Nadal is the real final here and he is not a favourite there, but noone sane will bet his house on Nadal winning vs Djoko. Otoh I would bet my house on Djoko reaching the semis.

He's the 2nd best favourite here.
 

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Discussion Starter · #48 ·
Nole is too good to be ruled out. He's got fairly easy road to the SF, where he can meet Rafa and it's just one match. He won't be a favourite in the semi, but it will be a 40-60 match, not 5-95. If he wins that - he can take the title. Just look at this and see if there is a single match you would rule out Djoko:

Sandgren
Cuevas
Humbert
Goffin / Musetti / de Minaur
Berrettini / Federer
Nadal
Zverev / Tsitsipas / Thiem / Medvedev

is there a single match except Nadal in which you wouldn't put Djoko as the fav ? If Thiem miracolously finds his form and motivation it will be a 50-50 at best. Tsitsi would also be close to 50-50

C'mon, Djokovic - Nadal is the real final here and he is not a favourite there, but noone sane will bet his house on Nadal winning vs Djoko. Otoh I would bet my house on Djoko reaching the semis.

He's the 2nd best favourite here.
5-95 was not for Djokovic Nadal but for Lose - Tournament win. That is a difference since their potential meeting wont happen in the final.

I see danger in Humbert upwards if one of them peaks. He is everywhere favourite until the SF. Final depends on the opponent's form but Tsitsipas, Thiem and Zverev I would take over Djokovic.

I am sorry for your house FelipeL but I would bet my house on Nadal winning rather than Djokovic reaching the SF. Dont worry, I will give you my second new home because you were so friendly to give hopes.
 

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As a Novak stan, I sadly mostly agree. I don't think he can really win it all. The good thing for him is that Thiem is far declined on clay since 2 years ago, so he can hope that Nadal has a challenging road and is somewhat depleted by the semifinal. He can beat anyone in the draw besides Nadal, which is a big question mark.

Ultimately though, it's hard to imagine Novak winning Roland Garros at age 34.

He should have won at least 2 if not 3 RGs in his prime years. 2013 was his chance. He had Nadal on the edge and would have taken care of Ferrer in the finals, potentially opening up another couple title run opportunities. But at least he got 2016...
 

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Yeah after this week Belgrade we have the confirmation what was already known. No second RG sadly or even beating Rafa.

His serve is really worrysome. If he keeps serving like that and losing service games, there wont be any chance at all. Could even lose before the QF. So there is no guarantee especially after entering the RG practice and tournament that late that he is reaching the QF.

Sandgren could be an akward / uncomfortable first test on clay if the American reaches his peak game and mind.

Dont get fooled by Rome. It is his best clay court tournament. Chatrier is a different clay surface and place.
Not so much that it's 'different surface' but 'surface area' range for Nadal to b able to set up (esp. TS FH) all day on the slow bouncy surface.
 

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Jinx thread? Not long ago Novak had chances to win Rome and only won 3 fewer points than Nadal despite playing two matches a day before while Nadal had a regular schedule. To suggest that he has no chance to win RG is really ridiculous.
 

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Discussion Starter · #53 ·
Told you.

Musetti displayed and exposed Djokovic's mental and shot weakness for everyone to see.

Musetti merged into a combination of Evans, Federer and Tsitsipas with his backhand, ground game, slice tactic, defense and punishing offense forehand mixture.

That is why great defenders who do not offer much errors make Djokovic desperate. He gets stiff and shaky on serve as well.

So, he will be out by Friday at the latest. Get those 720 points, equal the H2H 29-29, trash him on hardcourt the next time and focus on grass now. Wimbledon #6 is calling but this time with many candidates and upset alerts.

They have to cancel Olympic Games and organise two Wimbledon's this year for last year's absence. Djokovic lost a potential slam.
 
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Told you.

Musetti displayed and exposed Djokovic's mental and shot weakness for everyone to see.

Musetti merged into a combination of Evans, Federer and Tsitsipas with his backhand, ground game, slice tactic, defense and punishing offense forehand mixture.

That is why great defenders who do not offer much errors make Djokovic desperate. He gets stiff and shaky on serve as well.

So, he will be out by Friday at the latest. Get those 720 points, equal the H2H 29-29, trash him on hardcourt the next time and focus on grass now. Wimbledon #6 is calling but this time with many candidates and upset alerts.

They have to cancel Olympic Games and organise two Wimbledon's this year for last year's absence. Djokovic lost a potential slam.
He barely won Wimbledon 2018 (breakpoints Nadal deep in 5th set) and 2019 (match points Federer). I think the bookies odds for him winning Wimbledon 2020 would have been under 50%. The real bad loss was US Open 2020. He needs to stay cool and calm when things go south, exactly like he did after 0-2 down versus Musetti. That was a great mental turnaround.

As for the FO, it sucks that things are fully on schedule for him to take another beating against Nadal. My sliver of hope has evaporated after seeing Nadal bulldozer everyone in his path. There really is no chance if Nadal is not injured. But one can hope these losses will keep his fire burning and he can hit back off clay.
 

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Don't be so desperate. If he's to win he'll win. If not - not.

And BTW I guess your claims are mostly annoying to your fellow Novak fans.
 

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He barely won Wimbledon 2018 (breakpoints Nadal deep in 5th set) and 2019 (match points Federer). I think the bookies odds for him winning Wimbledon 2020 would have been under 50%. The real bad loss was US Open 2020. He needs to stay cool and calm when things go south, exactly like he did after 0-2 down versus Musetti. That was a great mental turnaround.

As for the FO, it sucks that things are fully on schedule for him to take another beating against Nadal. My sliver of hope has evaporated after seeing Nadal bulldozer everyone in his path. There really is no chance if Nadal is not injured. But one can hope these losses will keep his fire burning and he can hit back off clay.
Partly agree on FO but he will b far better prepared than during the odd scheduling of 2020 & expecting him to take it to 5 sets if he makes quick work of Berreta. Then hopefully a Tsitsi will make the final & it more competitive, if not win.
I disagree on your WB19 take & some reasons r that i firmly believe a normally tuned in Novak was very distracted by the anti Serb pro Fed hecklers & it lead to him not reading Fed's tricky serving as well & allowing Fed to dictate more than he usually has from their previous Grass encounters. Had WB been played in 2020 w/ far less or no crowds minus Fed there, just who was going to stop the defending champ?
WB18 is easy explanation since he was still adjusting to recent surgery & had very little confidence off BH wing, esp. BHDL.
 
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