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Hard to find any decent value bets for the remainder of the AO, and Vina del Mar probably doesn't fill the average punter with much excitement, for next week...so Davis Cup WG R1 (and outright) looks like the next more exciting tournament to bet on.

Indeed, as I type this, team nominations are coming in... :banana:

I do have one bet already pending for R1 action, taken 1 month ago (if Unibet offer it again, be sure to take their money...bunch of tossers): Israel over Sweden @ 3.40. Home tie for Israel (hard courts), and Soderling won't be making the trip (likely Joachim won't, either). Bjorkman has been inactive so far in 2008, and unless Swedes draft in a rookie, he'll have to play singles and doubles. Israeli's have an edge in the crucial Saturday doubles rubber (Erlich/Ram), while Sela would fancy his chances against Sweden #2 (Bjorkman lacking in match fitness; Prpic and Rehnquist [both big hitters] are fairly hit and miss, and inexperienced at Sela's higher level]). Thomas Johansson should clean up in singles, but Sela's consistency from the baseline could give him problems, while Okun/Levy are capable of challenging for a win over Sweden #2 player. In all, I'd have priced Israel up as more of a 2.30. :shrug:

As for OUTRIGHTS, I'll be waiting for another 10 days or so before I take my position(s), but, given the strength of the respective teams, and home/away tie scenarios, the two finalists seem fairly obvious to me, and have been ranked accordingly by the books. Dark horse could be Serbia, capable of scraping through to the SF, so 26.00 odds (Pinnacle) would appear to be very generous, offering the possibility of hedging at a later date (if liquidity doesn't fuck you over).
 
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Haven't seen the odds yet but Austria to beat USA should present some tremendous value. Stick the two clay court clowns in Roddick and Blake against Koubek and Melzer and we have a contest.
 
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I'm also going to take the Russians over the Serbs provided the Ukrainian doesn't front up for the Russians. Big year for Djokovic in the singles this year and Davis Cup is a distraction he can well do without.

Only concern would be the doubles because Zimonjic would clearly be the best doubles player on the court. However both Tursunov/Misha have proven themselves to be a competent pairing.
 

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melzer and koubek have never taken a set off roddick and that includes 2 matches each on clay. and when you take their choking tendencies into account I wouldn't fancy either against roddick over 5 sets in Davis Cup. I'd almost be tempted to throw Eschauer in instead of Melzer.

In saying that Austria could still be worth a bet if the price is right because Blake isn't exactly reliable and the Bryans aren't infallible. Dlouhy/Vizner are a decent team.
 

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melzer and koubek have never taken a set off roddick and that includes 2 matches each on clay. and when you take their choking tendencies into account I wouldn't fancy either against roddick over 5 sets in Davis Cup. I'd almost be tempted to throw Eschauer in instead of Melzer.

In saying that Austria could still be worth a bet if the price is right because Blake isn't exactly reliable and the Bryans aren't infallible. Dlouhy/Vizner are a decent team.
they're Czech though
 

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Czech Republic,Argentina,Germany,Spain and France should all win.Wonder what the odds will be for that combo.

Austrians are great value and I will most probably bet on them.Home crowd + clay,I think they have a great chance against American clay clowns.

Russia-Serbia is tough to predict.If Djokovic shows up,Serbia needs only 1 point from 2 Tipsarevic matches and doubles.
 

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Koubek and Melzer are two of the mentally weakest players on tour. Not exactly the type of players you want to have in a Davis Cup tie.
 

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Peru might be a bit of value against a Nadal and Ferrer-less Spain.

Lucho would obviously have to win both his singles but he matches up pretty well with Robredo. While Almagro and Verdaso are not great match-ups for him they're not exactly guys you'd want to rely on away in the Davis Cup. With home advantage there's a good chance Lucho gets the 2 points. The doubles is a bit of a lottery and Spain have probably benefited from Ferrer's withdrawal here with Lopez coming in. It could go either way.

Spain rightly favourites but Peru are worth a dabble at 6.0.
 

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Peru might be a bit of value against a Nadal and Ferrer-less Spain.

Lucho would obviously have to win both his singles but he matches up pretty well with Robredo. While Almagro and Verdaso are not great match-ups for him they're not exactly guys you'd want to rely on away in the Davis Cup. With home advantage there's a good chance Lucho gets the 2 points. The doubles is a bit of a lottery and Spain have probably benefited from Ferrer's withdrawal here with Lopez coming in. It could go either way.

Spain rightly favourites but Peru are worth a dabble at 6.0.
They were at 12 when I checked last night (unibet) and still are 9.5 over there...massive difference!!
 

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They were at 12 when I checked last night (unibet) and still are 9.5 over there...massive difference!!
cheers. I couldn't find it at any regular books and was just judging by betfair's early prices. There was hardly any liquidity so I didn't play it at that price. I see them at 9.0 now. That'll do me.
Definte bit of value there. Probably get at least a chance to trade if Lucho can get them off to a decent start.
 

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If Serbia wants to win,Djokovic needs to win in doubles and beat 2 top 8 players.With matches best of five,and with no rest,I dont think he can pull this off.

Russia 1.80,great odds,might take it after all.
 

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Some interesting matches tommorrow.

Youzhny vs Djokovic should be the match of the day - can see this going the distance and reckon Youzhny is the value. He has beaten Djoko twice before - both on indoor courts where the tie will be played tommorrow and Youz has looked in very good form this year, winning Chennai and getting to the quarters in Melbourne before being beaten by an inspired Tsonga. Usually after a player has won their first major, there is a let down when they play next and the same could happen to Djoko. Also he has apparently been suffering from illness, but I don't think we can read anything into that. Youz seems the sort of player that relishes the Davis cup atmosphere and I reckon he will win in 5 tommorrow.

The Austria vs US tie should be interesting. Roddick and Blake are poor on clay and Melzer and Koubek are mental midgets. Would probably be best to bet in play and back the Americans when they fall behind as the two Austrians will struggle to close it out if they get into a winning position. Roddick is a street fighter and has an excellent Davis Cup record and Blake seems to have overcome his mental demons, particularly in 5 set matches.

Pavel could be a decent bet vs Tsonga. As with Djokovic, I'm expecting a bit of a come down from Tsonga after his heroics at the Aus Open. Pavel is a Davis Cup warrior. He has a 32-13 record which has included impressive wins over Roddick in the US, Ancic in Croatia, Hrbaty in Slovakia, Kiefer in Germany and Kafenikov in Russia. He has carried the Romanian team on his shoulders in recent years. This is Tsonga's first appearance in Davis cup and the Davis cup experience is unique. Pavel will have home support and his experience in these sort of atmosphere's could prevail.

Shame I won't be around tommorrow to trade these bets but hope to have some live matches to bet on Sunday.
 

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Korea vs. Germany

why, Lee over Mayer @ 2.37??? is that a joke? is HT injured or what????
 
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