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Just what is the cause?

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Definitely not a troll thread. Just what is the cause of Federer's infamously bad conversion rate on break points? It can't be due to decline as he's always had this problem.

To name a few hilarious examples:
1)Federer last year was 2/19 on BP's against Tsonga in Monte Carlo 2014, where before the 3rd set (2/6 conversion rate in the 3rd) he was 0/13 on BP's :help:
2)Not convinced? Federer was 1/17 in BP's against Nadal in the FO 2007 Final. :help: :help: :explode:
3)Surely you're convinced by now? Fed last week lost two 0-40 games he had against Cuevas in the Istanbul Final
4)Another one I forgot is vs Robredo at US Open 2013 Federer was 2/16 on BP's.
5)There are too many to name, but I'll give a couple more. In the French Open final against Nadal in 2006 he was 3/10 on BP's. And he missed a crucial 0-40 lead against Nadal in the FO 2011 final

What are your opinions on the cause of this phenomenon?
 

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If it`s serious and not troll thread I`ll answer you.

Break-points for Fed happen when his opponent can serve wide serve to him. It`s one of his liabilities. I do believe that if the game was started from play in another part of court with future stable exchanges Fed`s numbers would be better.

Second, Fed doesn`t like to risk on bp usually from the 1st shot. He can go for his shots, but before it you can see 2-3 neutral exchange like he is in doubt. It allows his opponent to dictate the game. You can see it with your eyes opened how more free Federer plays the point before bp from the 1st shot.

And by the way, as important as br conversation stat is I always wanted to see the stat for games taken where a player had bp. In the end of the day if you use your chance in the game (from 1 or 10 attempt - it doesn`t matter much to me) the work is done. :shrug:
 

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Definitely not a troll thread. Just what is the cause of Federer's infamously bad conversion rate on break points? It can't be due to decline as he's always had this problem.

To name a few hilarious examples:
1)Federer last year was 2/19 on BP's against Tsonga in Monte Carlo 2014, where before the 3rd set (2/6 conversion rate in the 3rd) he was 0/13 on BP's :help:

What are your opinions on the cause of this phenomenon?


Actually from memory I think you'll find that Federer converted his first break point on either the 15th or 16th attempt.I remember watching it and thinking just pick a corner and go for a winner for crying out loud.Mind you,Tsonga was clutch on alot of them.


I'd like to further emphasise you aforementioned point and that is Fed is absolutely almost peerless at getting broken on serve the game AFTER HE FAILED TO CONVERT ON HIS BREAK POINTS... Time after time after time I've said 'Yep,0-40 wasted,now watch him get broken... and he did exactly that.I think it does rattle him and it affects his psyche in the subsequent games when he sprays stupid errors.
 

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It's psychology. BP's are key points of the match and Federer can't cope with nerves.
 

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Federer is not a choker ffs. Clowns are exaggerating like usual. He can be clutch as shit, especially on serve, but also on return games. Has been shown against Djokovic among others.

Well this topic, some of it has to do with his difficulty returning serves out wide on the ad side. Other times he just seems to lose focus a bit when he doesn't need to win the point to stay in the game - he's much more concentrated when he is DOWN break point.
 

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I'd like to further emphasise you aforementioned point and that is Fed is absolutely almost peerless at getting broken on serve the game AFTER HE FAILED TO CONVERT ON HIS BREAK POINTS... Time after time after time I've said 'Yep,0-40 wasted,now watch him get broken... and he did exactly that.I think it does rattle him and it affects his psyche in the subsequent games when he sprays stupid errors.
Not really. Remember he actually won most of the matches where he wasted all those BPs, couldn't have done that if he got broken afterwards and then continued wasting BPs afterwards. He's clearly above average for the tour in holding serve after wasting BPs. But I suppose you're only comparing to Djokovic and Nadal, in which case his stats in this respect are indeed inferior.
 

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It's psychology. BP's are key points of the match and Federer can't cope with nerves.
The interesting thing is that he's won 80 from 120 long TBs, that is TBs where the loser got at least 6 points, so we know it was 6-6 at one stage.

You'd think the TB points after 6-6 would also be key points in a match.

And don't blame it on the opposition, it's the same opponents he's wasting BPs against.
 

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The interesting thing is that he's won 80 from 120 long TBs, that is TBs where the loser got at least 6 points, so we know it was 6-6 at one stage.

You'd think the TB points after 6-6 would also be key points in a match.

And don't blame it on the opposition, it's the same opponents he's wasting BPs against.
Tiebreak is another story. Usually best tiebreakers are players with great serve. They can do just one minibreak, serve well and take the tiebreak. Not without purpose tiebreaks named lottery. But when we talk about breakpoints we mean only return level, right? And for sure Federer confidence is much better on serve than return.
 

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does anyone have the stats from the US Open Rpbredo match...His conversion rate was the reason he lost...And Robredo was not a GOAT on every point.

He seems more clutch in a TB that on BP
 

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does anyone have the stats from the US Open Rpbredo match...His conversion rate was the reason he lost...And Robredo was not a GOAT on every point.

He seems more clutch in a TB that on BP
2 out of 16

Some of the misses we hilarious. Backhands dumped intro the lower parts of the net...just pure clowning.
 

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Rather than a couple of individual anecdotes about matches where he missed a lot of BPs, I would wonder whether Federer is really missing any more BP opportunities than he should by looking at the stats.

I'm not sure where to get overall return points won percentage, but from the ATP site here's Federer's career percentage of points won returning first and second serve, and BPs converted.

1st serve return: 33
2nd serve return: 51
BP converted: 41

With Federer's career return stats, assuming he's performing completely average on BPs it would only take somewhere in the region of 55% first serve percentage to end up with a career BP conversion of 41%. I don't actually know the tour average first serve percentage but 54 doesn't strike me as particularly high.

So maybe the reason Federer doesn't win a lot of BPs (compared to other top players) is because he doesn't win a lot of return points :shrug:

In order to buy into Federer being systematically poorer on BPs I'd want to see that his chances of winning one are significantly worse than his chances of winning a given return point. Or at least that he is winning less BPs compared to his average return points won than most other players are.
 

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does anyone have the stats from the US Open Rpbredo match...His conversion rate was the reason he lost...And Robredo was not a GOAT on every point.

He seems more clutch in a TB that on BP
Individual matches don't tell us all that much.

Fact is that Fed has had 41-43% BP conversion rate for most of his career, ut was only in 2013 he went below 40%, to 39%. Then he held 39% last year and is not looking to improve in this one.

That's not very poor. Sure, it's some ways from Nadal (44-49%), Djokovic (42-48%) and Murray (41-46%) but there's not a lot of other guys doing consistently better.
 

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happens to everyone. in Dubai finals this year Djokovic was 0/7 and Federer was 2/2 in break point conversion(and Djokovic is usually good in saving break points), so you can find different examples ...
at the end Federer beat Ceuvas, he also beat Tsonga... now, failing to break Nadal in Paris is normal thing. every ATP player suffer from that syndrome, so you cant blame that on failing to convert 0-40.
 
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happens to everyone. in Dubai finals this year Djokovic was 0/7 and Federer was 2/2 in break point conversion(and Djokovic is usually good in saving break points), so you can find different examples ...
at the end Federer beat Ceuvas, he also beat Tsonga... now, failing to break Nadal in Paris is normal thing. every ATP player suffer from that syndrome, so you cant blame that on failing to convert 0-40.
humble and fun serbian nickname, Mr budala :)
 

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He sometimes gets a bit too tight, especially if he has missed a few BPs in the match already. He's often better when he doesn't put too much thought in the point and just lets his game flow. He plays a bit too defensive on BPs at times because he feels he should win the point. There are other playes that are like this too: Dimitrov comes to mind.

According to ATP match facts, Federer wins 40% of return points and 41% of break points. You are, however, expected to win more %BP than % of return points. You get more BP chances in the matches were you win more return points in relation to the total of return points you played in that match. So the matches were you are better on return contribute more towards your BP conversion rate. Same occurs for service points won and % BP saved, but the other way around; you face the more BPs in the matches you are less dominant on serve. Most players' %BP conversion is usually 2% or 3% above his % return points won.

Ultimately, the comparison to look at is % return pts won to %return games won. That's a better reference of how many return points won you "waste". Not the absolute difference though, because it will be much higher if you win less return points (and would theoretically be a negative value if you won more than half your return points). Federer is at 27% return games won. I believe that's about 1% lower than what would be the average value for 40% return pts won.
 

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I think that Tsonga match is a perfect illustration of Fed's issue on BPs: facing BP on the Ad side, Jo would systematically go for a kick serve out wide on the backhand. Roger could hardly return any of them. No nerves involved there, just a very poor ability to return that kind of serve. Obviously his opponents know it and take advantage.
I remember him telling something similar when asked about his poor BP conversion against Nadal: he was saying that the left-hander was at an advantage on Ad points to serve out wide.
 

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Mostly, it's the kick serve return. The Ad court is where you can do a kick serve to your opponent's BH.

On the deuce court he can chip and charge on the middle of the court giving his opponent little angle and pace to hit a passing shot. On the Deuce court, if he gets taken out of the court he gotta gamble, otherwise he loses the point anyways.

Anticipating the kick serve, cutting it and hitting it on the rise is harder for 1HBH players.
 

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I think that Tsonga match is a perfect illustration of Fed's issue on BPs: facing BP on the Ad side, Jo would systematically go for a kick serve out wide on the backhand. Roger could hardly return any of them. No nerves involved there, just a very poor ability to return that kind of serve. Obviously his opponents know it and take advantage.
I remember him telling something similar when asked about his poor BP conversion against Nadal: he was saying that the left-hander was at an advantage on Ad points to serve out wide.
Same for Dimitrov. I remember 2013 RG where Dimitrov was trashed by Djokovic after he beat him in Madrid that year but there was two games on Djokovics serve that lasted 10 minutes each. Dimitrov would get the Ad then Djokovic would kick serve it wide and take the point from there. At some point Djokovic started to hit the kick serve on his 1st serve, forcing it with a bit more angle on it. Nishikori tried the slice, the top spin, everything and he couldn't convert it.

One handers that have a lot of 'free power' on their BHs (Wawrinka, Gasquet, Almagro, etc) don't face the same problem because they can just stand back and deliver a fireball with a good arc which is harder to attack it and gives time for them to recover the court.
 

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Rather than a couple of individual anecdotes about matches where he missed a lot of BPs, I would wonder whether Federer is really missing any more BP opportunities than he should by looking at the stats.

I'm not sure where to get overall return points won percentage, but from the ATP site here's Federer's career percentage of points won returning first and second serve, and BPs converted.
Career-wise, on serve Federer's BP save rate is normal. On return it's slightly worse than expected, but not by much:

BP converted% - return points won% = 1,2 percentage points diff while the ATP top 100 average is 2,2 points diff.

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This year however Federer has been worse than usual on converting breakpoints, with 85% confidence.

He's been saving breakpoints well this year but the sample is still too small to draw conclusions about that.
 
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