Mens Tennis Forums banner

1 - 20 of 27 Posts

·
Moderator
Joined
·
23,064 Posts
Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
The recent developments this year could see this year as one of the possible tightest races for year end #1.

None of the Big Four have won a Slam yet, although Nadal reached the Final, Fed the Semis, while Djokorray in the QFs. The 2 of the Masters have been won by Djokovic, but exited relatively early in Monte Carlo where a non-Big Four won it. Nadal is struggling right now in terms of confidence and possibly physicality, as while he did win a 500 this year hasn't been consistent on other tournaments. Federer while going deep is still not exactly getting the W's and had some odd losses. Wawrinka while in his best form is not really that consistent as shown with his 2 R4 exits in the March Masters.

As of now Nadal-Federer-Djokovic are practically tied for 2nd place in the Race (with a points difference of around 150+ points) while Wawrinka's unproven whole-season consistency is in 1st (with around less than 500 points above Fed). With uncertainty if Nadal might win RG, Djokovic being injured on the wrist and preparing for marriage and a baby, Federer preparing also for his baby that he might be absent for some time, and Stan not being proven to be that consistent yet, could this be the most tight race as of late?
 

·
~♥ Magnus Norman ♥~
Joined
·
3,328 Posts
It would be awesome if it was decided at the WTFs.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
9,577 Posts
It is and always has been dependent on how motivated Djokovic is.
 

·
Moderator
Joined
·
23,064 Posts
Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
One thing too: if Berdych wins Oeiras, that means he would have 250 points on his belt (solo for that week among the Top 10 in the Race I think) and gets closer to #4 in the Race Nadal.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
20,578 Posts
did you just wish death on the entire top 10? :eek:
 

·
Moderator
Joined
·
23,064 Posts
Discussion Starter #6
did you just wish death on the entire top 10? :eek:
:lol: Air quotes... :p You know that the ATP players are the "Gladiators of today", hehe.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
915 Posts
I seriously hope the YE#1 gets decided at the WTF if that will even be possible, would make things more interesting for a change! :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,535 Posts

·
~♥ Magnus Norman ♥~
Joined
·
3,328 Posts

·
Moderator
Joined
·
23,064 Posts
Discussion Starter #11
I agree actually it depends on Djokovic's consistency -- Nadal's lows have been very low, while his high are. Djokovic on the other hand doesn't seem to go away in the 1st or 2nd Rounds (unless you are Dimitrov last year, haha).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,025 Posts
If Rafa can have another run like he did last year then he will have a great shot. He just needs to win RG to get the ball rolling. Nole is a monster in the 2nd half of the season but family distractions will see him lose a lot of traction. Stan is just not reliable/ consistent enough to be a serious threat. I'm praying Murray will have found his form by Wimbledon. Defending his title will have a huge impact on how this race pans out. It's possible we could have 4 different GS champs this year. That would be awesome.
 

·
Your visions will happen
Joined
·
47,139 Posts
Nadal really needs to do well in Madrid/Rome/RG, cause if he doesn't it will be very difficult.

Fed and Djokovic both have pregnant wives/fiancees and Nole is injured, Fed may not even play RG.

Honestly, Wawrinka is the only one who is actually in form
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
57,600 Posts
If Nadal, Wawrinka, Federer and Djokovic are close after clay season, have to think it won't be Nadal but it will still be fairly tight 4 ways.

Even if Nadal has a pretty good outdoor hard season, he's always been poor indoors and lately been even worse on grass. It is crucial to him to win at least two of the three big clay events left, or all three even. Djokovic has to be the favorite at this point due to his success across surfaces in the past few years, and the best positioned to finish #1. But Federer is actually not in a bad position either, if he can stay within 1500 or so points of Djokovic at the end of clay season he's got a shot with his beloved grass coming up followed by faster/indoor hard courts, where he will like his chances in Cincy and the WTF in particular. Wawrinka is the real wild card, and if he were fourth of the four all within 700 points of each other, it would be mildly interesting but not a real threat. But instead he is first, and currently on his best surface. If he can win one or more of Rome, Madrid, and Roland Garros you have to think he has a shot. That said, he's weak on grass and he's been brilliant at times but inconsistent on outdoor hard over the past year.

Then there is "other" and with as wide open as the clay season seems this year, Berdych or Ferrer could win the French and suddenly be in contention. Seems unlikely though.

Djokovic 45%
Nadal 20%
Federer 20%
Wawrinka 10%
Other 5%
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,517 Posts
Djokovic and Federer is playing really at one level now.I do not think Wawrinka plays better than them. He tried to prove he can beat top guys OK but all his loses are vs lesser players and he will need to play vs them in order to get to QF,SF.There are many hot players.
 

·
Moderator
Joined
·
23,064 Posts
Discussion Starter #17
Hmmm...Djokovic is now out of some important Madrid points, and if something weird happens in the draw (reminiscent of last year with Federer and Djokovic's early exits) we might not see a certain domination this season.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,930 Posts
I think we have only three contenders at this point: Djokovic, Nadal, Wawrinka

Djokovic (45%): Only the wrist will derail him at this point. Even hindered, he was playing so well in the early rounds of MC..The tour's most consistent player across all surfaces..Will probably still clean up the Fall indoors for a third year in a row..

Nadal (30%): Dodgy form, but he seems to have recovered physically..Needs Rome+ RG + deep run in W (SF/F), otherwise he is unlikely to replicate his 2013 summer HC..Other than that, #1 does not seem in his plans as he said himself..

Wawrinka (20%): If he wins RG, all bets are off..Inconsistency is his achilles' heel..But he could ride a potential AO/RG double to #1 if somehow Nole-Rafa slump or are out with injuries..

Other (5%): Basically, Federer..But i am not sure his mind, much less form, is into it..
 

·
Your visions will happen
Joined
·
47,139 Posts
Nadal really needs to max out in Rome and RG, which is doable.

Wimbledon is a big question mark. If he can defend Rome/RG, and can keep #1 ranking, even if by like 25 points coming into Wimbledon, he can make up big at SW19. Djokovic is defending F, and Nadal only R128. Wimbledon will be crucial for both, really every match is crucial.

But if Nadal can keep #1 after Wimbledon and vulture some summer weeks at #1, even if he loses #1 at some point in the USO summer swing, if he is close after the USO, Djokovic is defending everything post USO, and it may come down to WTF final match, where I think the ATP just needs to institute a best of 5 for the final match. For fuck's sake.
 
1 - 20 of 27 Posts
Top