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Discussion Starter #141
Even when you use the right facts, you draw wrong conclusions.
There's been other posters here who have confirmed my statement that flu vaccines won't achieve herd immunity.

Flu shots don't know who's old and who's health care worker.
Nope, but the cost/benefit ratio is higher for those with more exposure to the flu, and who have greater effects if they get sick with it.

20% protection rate is simply not true. You pulled that out of you ass, or link please! If that was the case, then it would have been the money burned.
It can be as little as 10 percent depending on the flu season. Flu is just not a great vaccine candidate. I'm not sure why your girlfriend isn't teaching you the correct stuff about herd immunity.

Herd immunity is achieved both by effectiveness and by % of population reached.
Herd immunity requires around 75 percent of the population to be inoculated. Some diseases like Measles require more, around 87 percent to effectively shield everyone.
 

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Discussion Starter #142
We are now 4 days past the crest for Italy. 5210 cases today for Italy. At this rate it will take about 2 weeks to eliminate from Italy entirely.
 

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We are now 4 days past the crest for Italy. 5210 cases today for Italy. At this rate it will take about 2 weeks to eliminate from Italy entirely.
Hilariously optimistic

Though it would be great, it is highly unlikely. Italy may be at a plateau right now, but Spain is still rising
 

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Discussion Starter #144
Yes, but Spain is no longer accelerating. That's the first step. Growth there is steady. Then it should slow down.
 

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For once, I hope a prediction thread in MTF comes true. This outbreak is too much for everyone and I sincerely feel for people around the world. I consider myself lucky that even though many of our plans have been postponed or cancelled, my family could probably survive in many years despite the lockdown and apparent economic recession. However, not all people are blessed with savings that can last for many years. Some live paycheck to paycheck, while others are struggling daily even before the pandemic. I am at the fear that if this uncertainty continues for several months, the world will succumb to chaos.
 

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Well I think lots of you and BTW Chairman Gaudenzi very optimistic.

As we have a gutless governement in France, Scientists are opening their mouths more and more and what they said is basically they expect France will enter peak mid April and this peak will last 3 or 4 weeks (so more or less mid May).

Italy and Spain which people think were 1 week ahead, have probably reached a peak, but only in some part of their territory, as an Italian Scientist said only in 57 out of 107 Italian "Regions" and 10 out of 12 "Counties" of Lombardy

Considering lots of countries are today in the same position France was in the beginning of March (in Africa and America Eastern Europe or Middle East Asia) and most Western European in position when France was a fortnite ago, I am afraid peak should end late May for the later and Mid June for the sooner....

Then can come time when we get back to normal life but as we can watch in Hubei, it takes weeks after peak.
 

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There's been other posters here who have confirmed my statement that flu vaccines won't achieve herd immunity.

Nope, but the cost/benefit ratio is higher for those with more exposure to the flu, and who have greater effects if they get sick with it.

It can be as little as 10 percent depending on the flu season. Flu is just not a great vaccine candidate. I'm not sure why your girlfriend isn't teaching you the correct stuff about herd immunity.

Herd immunity requires around 75 percent of the population to be inoculated. Some diseases like Measles require more, around 87 percent to effectively shield everyone.
Jesus f***ing Christ, do you ever read what other people write?!
Or is it the comprehension that you have the trouble with?!
Didn't I write about the cost/benefit bean counting as the main reason why flu vaccine is "ineffective"?!
Elderly people and health care workers are actually at lower epidemic risk, elderly because of their general lower social mobility, and healthcare workers because they are better equipped and trained for such risks. Elderly population is at higher mortality risk, not the contraction risk.
Again pulling numbers out of the ass without relevant links! Anyone who produced and released a vaccine that in hind sight proved to be 20 or 10% effective should be persecuted for criminal negligence, but that's entirely different matter.
I'm sure you have better sources on the subject then my wife (wife, not girlfriend, do you ever read?!) specialized epidemiologist with 30+ years of experience.
I've seen your other overly optimistic post about Italy cresting. You my dear friend have no clue what we are dealing with here! You see only numbers. Can you believe those numbers, though?! Because, behind those numbers are still people, the ones collecting them and reporting. Well, let me tell you what I witness every day in my own home. My wife is busting her ass for days and even weeks now, reporting after collecting samples. At first, the tables of contacts for those who got hospitalized contained full names with other data. Then the tables turned to numbers only. Now there are no proper tables anymore, just ticks that they count at the end of the day. They are overwhelmed, half a dozen of them are working around the clock for almost 2 weeks now. God knows how things are in Italy. You still take those numbers for granted?!
But there will be the crest for sure, because even the exponential growth hits the ceiling of the limited set at one time. The virus simply runs out of possible contacts. That's what the epidemic curve shows, except it has to be applied to every new focus point that emerges. That's why this will last much longer than most people comprehend.
 

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Jesus f***ing Christ, do you ever read what other people write?!
Or is it the comprehension that you have the trouble with?!
Didn't I write about the cost/benefit bean counting as the main reason why flu vaccine is "ineffective"?!
Elderly people and health care workers are actually at lower epidemic risk, elderly because of their general lower social mobility, and healthcare workers because they are better equipped and trained for such risks. Elderly population is at higher mortality risk, not the contraction risk.
Again pulling numbers out of the ass without relevant links! Anyone who produced and released a vaccine that in hind sight proved to be 20 or 10% effective should be persecuted for criminal negligence, but that's entirely different matter.
I'm sure you have better sources on the subject then my wife (wife, not girlfriend, do you ever read?!) specialized epidemiologist with 30+ years of experience.
I've seen your other overly optimistic post about Italy cresting. You my dear friend have no clue what we are dealing with here! You see only numbers. Can you believe those numbers, though?! Because, behind those numbers are still people, the ones collecting them and reporting. Well, let me tell you what I witness every day in my own home. My wife is busting her ass for days and even weeks now, reporting after collecting samples. At first, the tables of contacts for those who got hospitalized contained full names with other data. Then the tables turned to numbers only. Now there are no proper tables anymore, just ticks that they count at the end of the day. They are overwhelmed, half a dozen of them are working around the clock for almost 2 weeks now. God knows how things are in Italy. You still take those numbers for granted?!
But there will be the crest for sure, because even the exponential growth hits the ceiling of the limited set at one time. The virus simply runs out of possible contacts. That's what the epidemic curve shows, except it has to be applied to every new focus point that emerges. That's why this will last much longer than most people comprehend.
I wouldn't waste more time trying to argue with this clueless know-it-all person.


In the meantime: Alarming CDC internal report sent to the White House: The US faces unprecedented risk worldwide, and may have to face the worst epidemic in any country.

Another report from the New York (City) health service warns that the morgues will be full next week and warns of the need for logistical reinforcement to be able to manage the bodies of the deceased.

Sadly very dark times for USA coming soon.
 

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I wouldn't waste more time trying to argue with this clueless know-it-all person.


In the meantime: Alarming CDC internal report sent to the White House: The US faces unprecedented risk worldwide, and may have to face the worst epidemic in any country.

Another report from the New York (City) health service warns that the morgues will be full next week and warns of the need for logistical reinforcement to be able to manage the bodies of the deceased.

Sadly very dark times for USA coming soon.
Yeah, with him I've already broken my credo about discussions a couple of times, but sometimes I just can't let some BS pass unanswered, for other people's sake...
 

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We are now 4 days past the crest for Italy. 5210 cases today for Italy. At this rate it will take about 2 weeks to eliminate from Italy entirely.
What do you mean by 'eliminate entirely'? Currently still 57521 active known cases, with 5000+ new known cases registered daily the past few days. Add to that the unknown cases. What will the situation be like in 2 weeks (= eliminated entirely) in your view... No new known cases? No active cases? Something else? The lockdown measures coupled with the saturation of infections in certain areas had/have to start making an impact sooner or later, but 2 weeks - yet another overly optimistic take.

Current predictions so far:
  • under 10k deaths ❌ (now at 22k)
  • Olympics not cancelled ❌
As much as we'd like for the OP crest prediction to be correct, after 6 days it'll be added to that list.
 

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Do you even realize why the numbers in Italy do not escalate further? Because they fucking are in a total lockdown. What will happen if you don't do that, we can soon all witness in the US. Little spoiler alert: It will be very, very ugly.

So the math is simple. You can "control" the virus, but you have to imply drastic measurements. Social distancing is the key. Then the virus can be managed till the vaccine hopefully gets made.

And now, my beloved MTF users, please at least try and activate your brain. What does this mean for sports events with large crowds? Exactly. They are not going to happen. No chance.

So either ATP is actually considering tennis matches without a crowd, or we will not see any tennis 2020. Wimbledon already declared they will not hold the tournaments without the fans. I doubt any large tournament can afford matches without the paying attendees. So FO and USO will not happen, too. Deal with it.
 

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Do you even realize why the numbers in Italy do not escalate further? Because they fucking are in a total lockdown. What will happen if you don't do that, we can soon all witness in the US. Little spoiler alert: It will be very, very ugly.

So the math is simple. You can "control" the virus, but you have to imply drastic measurements. Social distancing is the key. Then the virus can be managed till the vaccine hopefully gets made.

And now, my beloved MTF users, please at least try and activate your brain. What does this mean for sports events with large crowds? Exactly. They are not going to happen. No chance.

So either ATP is actually considering tennis matches without a crowd, or we will not see any tennis 2020. Wimbledon already declared they will not hold the tournaments without the fans. I doubt any large tournament can afford matches without the paying attendees. So FO and USO will not happen, too. Deal with it.
They haven't been that good in Italy regarding the lockdown, up until last weekend, there were many unnecessary factory still open, public transport still open (and full) in Northern Italia etc...
 

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Discussion Starter #157
Elderly people and health care workers are actually at lower epidemic risk, elderly because of their general lower social mobility, and healthcare workers because they are better equipped and trained for such risks. Elderly population is at higher mortality risk, not the contraction risk.
True, to an extent. However, if death rates for the elderly are 10x than for younger people then the cost/benefit for a flu shot changes. As for health care workers it has to do with exposure effects. Yes, they are better at protecting themselves, but they are vastly more exposed. Also they have concerns with chain transmission as they can get other people sick in their work. It's this reason why they are required (as I was), to get the full range of shots, including those for things like yellow fever that are not common.

Anyone who produced and released a vaccine that in hind sight proved to be 20 or 10% effective should be persecuted for criminal negligence
That is a quote from the centre for disease control. They explain why flu shots are less effective, due to the nature of the flu, and the fact that it evolves more quickly than other diseases. 10 percent would have to do with a bad matchup between flu strains between one year to the next. It isn't a fault of those who's jobs it is to try to estimate what strains will come, sometimes things happen in the real world that cannot be predicted.

then my wife (wife, not girlfriend, do you ever read?!) specialized epidemiologist with 30+ years of experience.
I refuse to believe that you have a wife with 30 years of experience as an epidemiologist who can't explain to you why immunization against the flu is less effective than it is for other diseases. Does she exist?

You see only numbers. Can you believe those numbers, though?! Because, behind those numbers are still people, the ones collecting them and reporting.
Facts are what we have to work with. We have to work with the numbers such as they are not whatever counterproductive panick you are attempting to provoke.

They are overwhelmed, half a dozen of them are working around the clock for almost 2 weeks now. God knows how things are in Italy. You still take those numbers for granted?!
Really. Which is why there was an article today from an epidemiologist apologizing for his profoundly incorrect assumptions regarding coronavirus and that in his belief, he felt that the US had adequate beds and resources to treat the most serious cases?

But there will be the crest for sure, because even the exponential growth hits the ceiling of the limited set at one time. The virus simply runs out of possible contacts. That's what the epidemic curve shows, except it has to be applied to every new focus point that emerges. That's why this will last much longer than most people comprehend.
As I posted earlier, "Italy is coming up against some hard limits", and the infection rates are dropping.
 

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Discussion Starter #158
In the meantime: Alarming CDC internal report sent to the White House: The US faces unprecedented risk worldwide, and may have to face the worst epidemic in any country.
Quite, utter nonsense. Currently the hardest hit country is actually Switzerland. US numbers are not comparable when you take population into account.

Another report from the New York (City) health service warns that the morgues will be full next week and warns of the need for logistical reinforcement to be able to manage the bodies of the deceased.

Sadly very dark times for USA coming soon.
We're all gonna die!!!!1 Oh noes!

Latest projections for the US have some 300k infections coupled with about 2k deaths due to Coronavirus.
 

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Discussion Starter #159
What do you mean by 'eliminate entirely'? Currently still 57521 active known cases, with 5000+ new known cases registered daily the past few days. Add to that the unknown cases. What will the situation be like in 2 weeks (= eliminated entirely) in your view... No new known cases? No active cases? Something else? The lockdown measures coupled with the saturation of infections in certain areas had/have to start making an impact sooner or later, but 2 weeks - yet another overly optimistic take
If you notice I did not say, "this is what will happen" only, "if this rate of decline is sustained, this is what the result will be".

Anyways, the decline has not been sustained, However, cases peaked March 21st, which is now 6 days ago. We'll have to see how it shakes out. If the current rate of decline over the last week continues, we'll see this dealt with in about 8 weeks.

That seems to me more reasonable and we can be more sure that the data is correct the more days that are taken into account. I want to see a bit more data before I make a prediction, but for now, that is what the numbers support. We are no longer seeing an exponential growth curve in Italy, which, like South Korea and China before it has crested. It seems reasonable to surmise that we will see this behavior in all the other countries over time.
 

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Oh dear, Pepe is really destroying that family. Give her a cake!

There were some rumors about Novak and other women years ago ...
Jelena herself said a few weeks ago that she sometimes suffers a lot from the Serbian media, often feels criticized and is sometimes even depressed...in this video she looks very unhappy and looks absent as if she is on medication ... very very sad...
 
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