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Looking at today's numbers, total and daily differential at COVID19info.live
Mainland China has stabilized its total at around 80000 after months of battling with the epidemic.
USA has a daily differential of more then 11000 in the last 24 hours.
I will make my own bold prediction here!
Based on the government approach and general public mentality - in less then a month time, let's say in 3 weeks, the US will at least double the total numbers for China!
 

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Looking at today's numbers, total and daily differential at COVID19info.live
Mainland China has stabilized its total at around 80000 after months of battling with the epidemic.
USA has a daily differential of more then 11000 in the last 24 hours.
I will make my own bold prediction here!
Based on the government approach and general public mentality - in less then a month time, let's say in 3 weeks, the US will at least double the total numbers for China!
Numbers in the US are currently still almost doubling every second day. Measures have been taken in some states and one can hope that they will help to reduce the spreading. If the current rate of increase continues, we are not just talking about doubling the Chinese number. The US would then reach on the order of 1 million cases in two weeks from now.
 

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Looking at today's numbers, total and daily differential at COVID19info.live
Mainland China has stabilized its total at around 80000 after months of battling with the epidemic.
USA has a daily differential of more then 11000 in the last 24 hours.
I will make my own bold prediction here!
Based on the government approach and general public mentality - in less then a month time, let's say in 3 weeks, the US will at least double the total numbers for China!
Do not believe ccp china lies, regime which controls all of the media will lie about true death rate so the stats from china are massively underrepresented. real death toll is over 100,000 and daily death toll is still high

To the delusional fanboys that spam this forum : the china coronavirus does not care about your favorite player, the 2020 is virtually canceled
 

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Numbers in the US are currently still almost doubling every second day. Measures have been taken in some states and one can hope that they will help to reduce the spreading. If the current rate of increase continues, we are not just talking about doubling the Chinese number. The US would then reach on the order of 1 million cases in two weeks from now.
Actually, to be more precise: with the current exponential growth rate of the past 10 days, the US would reach almost 4 million cases in two weeks. The 1 million above already implies a slight reduction of the spreading rate.
 

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Do not believe ccp china lies, regime which controls all of the media will lie about true death rate so the stats from china are massively underrepresented. real death toll is over 100,000 and daily death toll is still high

To the delusional fanboys that spam this forum : the china coronavirus does not care about your favorite player, the 2020 is virtually canceled
Lies or not, if the China's numbers are underrepresented then my prediction is based on optimistic variant. Because, China regime is not only good at controlling the media, it is even more effective at containing it's population within the quarantine boundaries. Which does not spell anything good for the USA forecast.
I was looking at flightradar24.com the other day, watching the density of live flights over the Europe and the USA. While over the Europe the number of flights was notably reduced, the airspace of the USA was happily crowded as ever. There are no signs of reduction even today.
 

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Concerns at the WHO regarding Brazil which does not respect any of the recommendations.

Note that President Bolsonaro announced that "COVID-19 was a scam created by the hysterical media", that it was only a "little flu" exploited by its political opponents.
Jeez Louise. Disturbing / highly alarming.
 

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Discussion Starter #129
Flu is not controlled that good with a vaccine because of the low level of coverage, not because of its ineffectiveness (looking at you, stupid antivaxers), since it is not mandatory in any jurisdiction that I know of.
Flu strains change every year and Flu vaccines can only target a particular strain due to the nature of the virus. It's why the Flu isn't a great target for a vaccine in the first place, unlike other diseases. Yes, it can be helpful, especially for older people and health care workers, but even if you get the flu shot, you're not protected.

It may not be 100% effective (no vaccine is), but it's enough to maintain collective immunity so that it doesn't spiral out of control.
Actually, no. It doesn't work that way for the flu shot. Things like Measles, etc do work that way if they can get inoculations up above 80 percent or so. 86, 87 is the number for measles. This is why they had vaccinations for Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Dipthteria and Pertussis, because vaccines could be effective against these diseases. Flu? Not so much.

Even if you made it mandatory, you might get 25 percent of all the flu viruses, and it would still circulate because of the issue with different flu strains every year.

You should study up on herd immunity, why not every disease is a good target for vaccination.
 

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Discussion Starter #130
India has a population over 1 billion, Brazil over 200 millions.
Yes, and? Since you're predicting the world will end, lets see your prediction. :)
 

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Flu strains change every year and Flu vaccines can only target a particular strain due to the nature of the virus. It's why the Flu isn't a great target for a vaccine in the first place, unlike other diseases. Yes, it can be helpful, especially for older people and health care workers, but even if you get the flu shot, you're not protected.

Actually, no. It doesn't work that way for the flu shot. Things like Measles, etc do work that way if they can get inoculations up above 80 percent or so. 86, 87 is the number for measles. This is why they had vaccinations for Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Dipthteria and Pertussis, because vaccines could be effective against these diseases. Flu? Not so much.

Even if you made it mandatory, you might get 25 percent of all the flu viruses, and it would still circulate because of the issue with different flu strains every year.

You should study up on herd immunity, why not every disease is a good target for vaccination.
Oh please, just please read carefully so I don't have to repeat myself. And please quote me properly so I can get an alert and respond.
1. My wife is an epidemiologist, so I have a reliable source if I want to learn something.
2. Flu strains change seasonally and there is never just one strain in circulation, so it is the responsibility of the manufacturers to prepare an adequate mixture/composition. Sometimes they don't, sometimes they don't get it right. Maybe they take into account just one most dominant strain, sometimes the situation changes dynamically so some other strain appears after the vaccine has already been produced. It has to be prepared in time, at least couple of weeks before the start of the season so that there is enough time for antibodies to develop in the organism after the shot. Hence the lower effectiveness, but you just can't say it is overall ineffective. Even so, whatever head start in immunity it gives, it is better then nothing, it at least gives you the chance sometimes to pass with mild symptoms, sometimes to even save your life. No matter what, it is still the game of chance, but in which you should not be picky about rising your odds at least a tiny bit.
3. If flu vaccine was to be mandatory and applied the way measles vaccine is, then the heard immunity concept would apply just the same way as with measles. But it is not applied that way. Probably because of the cost/benefit calculation (public health been, sorry, bean-counters). Way less rate of mortality then measles, so it is not regarded as high risk, except in rare cases like the swine flu epidemic (A-H1N1, same as spanish fever). But unlike the measles the flu vaccine would have to be applied every year instead of once in a lifetime, so cost prohibitive on thin public health budgets. A couple of thousand deaths a year, we can live with it.
Got it now?!
I don't intend to repeat any more.
 

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And today Italy can have 7000! 6000 already...
Miniature Lichtenshtein have 50 infected.

And Liechtenstein with 51 cases has same number of cases per population as Italy with 70,000 :)
 

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In the recent times, Spanish flu was estimated to have killed at least 50 million people, in 1918, about a century ago. The Black Death Plague seemed to have killed about the same number, i.e., around 50 million people; but Black Death happened in the 14th century, so, those numbers were unconfirmed. The two deadliest viruses in the history of mankind.

This is not unprecedented.
Black Plague in 14th century was not virus but a bacteria
 

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On few posts above ..... don't take the plan numbers per country, but instead the number of cases (or active cases, or deaths) per 1 M population.

YOu can follow these numbers easily here - Coronavirus Update (Live): 435,366 Cases and 19,618 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer . Just sort the second last column and you will find the current leaders (small countries such as San Marino, Vatican, Faroe islands, Andora ... )

Current leader of countries with at least 1 million inhabitants is Switzerland with 1175 cases per milion or 0.1 % of its total population.
 

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Roger Federer
These are challenging times for everyone and nobody should be left behind. Mirka and I have personally decided to donate one million Swiss Francs for the most vulnerable families in Switzerland. Our contribution is just a start. We hope that others might join in supporting more families in need. Together we can overcome this crisis! Stay healthy!
 

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Discussion Starter #138
1. My wife is an epidemiologist, so I have a reliable source if I want to learn something.
What you've said about flu is incorrect. Hence my response to you. Yes, it is great that your wife is an epidemiologist, but my fiancée is an author. You don't learn by osmosis.

2. Flu strains change seasonally and there is never just one strain in circulation, so it is the responsibility of the manufacturers to prepare an adequate mixture/composition. Sometimes they don't, sometimes they don't get it right. Maybe they take into account just one most dominant strain, sometimes the situation changes dynamically so some other strain appears after the vaccine has already been produced. It has to be prepared in time, at least couple of weeks before the start of the season so that there is enough time for antibodys to develop in the organism after the shot. Hence the lower effectiveness,
Exactly correct. This has to do with the characteristics of the virus itself, not the number of shots.

you just can't say it is overall ineffective.
Did not say that. Said that the characteristics of influenza made vaccination less effective than it is for other diseases.

Even so, whatever head start in immunity it gives, it is better then nothing
I mentioned two groups for whom the flu shot is helpful, older people and health care workers....

3. If flu vaccine was to be mandatory and applied the way measles vaccine is
No, it would not, because of the factors listed above. 20 percent protection from flu strains is better than nothing, but insufficient to achieve herd immunity. See what I posted above. This is the crucial point that you need to understand. Herd immunity would require something around 75 percent preventation if everyone were inoculated successfully.
 

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What you've said about flu is incorrect. Hence my response to you. Yes, it is great that your wife is an epidemiologist, but my fiancée is an author. You don't learn by osmosis.
I don't learn by osmosis, I learn by asking relevant individuals proper questions.

Exactly correct. This has to do with the characteristics of the virus itself, not the number of shots.
...
Did not say that. Said that the characteristics of influenza made vaccination less effective than it is for other diseases.
...
I mentioned two groups for whom the flu shot is helpful, older people and health care workers....
...
No, it would not, because of the factors listed above. 20 percent protection from flu strains is better than nothing, but insufficient to achieve herd immunity. See what I posted above. This is the crucial point that you need to understand. Herd immunity would require something around 75 percent preventation if everyone were inoculated successfully.
Even when you use the right facts, you draw wrong conclusions.
Better preparation = better effectiveness.
Flu shots don't know who's old and who's health care worker.
20% protection rate is simply not true. You pulled that out of you ass, or link please! If that was the case, then it would have been the money burned.
Herd immunity is achieved both by effectiveness and by % of population reached.
That's it, I'm done with this.
 
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