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Italy death toll has officially surpassed China.
+400 people die everyday in Italy because of coronavirus.
As of today there are 3.400 casualties compared to China 3.200.
 

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Discussion Starter #43
Welp. Guess I was wrong. I was expecting Italy's numbers to be in line with the Chinese numbers with deaths/infections. I was also expecting it to level off some with the deaths, surprised to see it still above 4 percent.

Hate being wrong. Not sure where the world numbers will end up, will have to check out all the curves again. World number is hard because you've got multiple curves.
 

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10,000 deaths from 245,000 infections globally gives up 4% death rate holding steady, that's pretty damn scary
 

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The difference between Italy and the rest of the world lies in its peculiar way of counting the victims.
In Italy only two people without pre-existing conditions have died because of coronavirus.
Every single person who has died because i.e. heart diease (or whatever) AND coronavirus is counted as dead because of coronavirus.
I'm pretty sure no other country is doing the same. That's why death rate is about 8℅ (!) in Italy and 3℅ anywhere else.
that's just plain wrong. almost every other country is counting in the same way. pretty much all of those who die have underlying conditions like high blood pressure, etc. it's normal because it affects old people mostly. it would be stupid to not count the deaths as being attributable to coronavirus just because there are other conditions. The virus is what sends them over the edge in most cases. People don't normally die in these numbers just with those conditions alone.
 

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Discussion Starter #46
People don't normally die in these numbers just with those conditions alone.
Uh, yeah. They do. Morbidity for these conditions is very high, and far outpaces the coronavirus. Which leads itself to an interesting question. Are these deaths being overstated when they have been attributed to coronavirus?
 

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The difference between Italy and the rest of the world lies in its peculiar way of counting the victims.
In Italy only two people without pre-existing conditions have died because of coronavirus.
Every single person who has died because i.e. heart diease (or whatever) AND coronavirus is counted as dead because of coronavirus.
I'm pretty sure no other country is doing the same. That's why death rate is about 8℅ (!) in Italy and 3℅ anywhere else.
that's just plain wrong. almost every other country is counting in the same way. pretty much all of those who die have underlying conditions like high blood pressure, etc. it's normal because it affects old people mostly. it would be stupid to not count the deaths as being attributable to coronavirus just because there are other conditions. The virus is what sends them over the edge in most cases. People don't normally die in these numbers just with those conditions alone.
Yeah, AFAIK that's not the case. On the Worldometer website e.g. many of the reported deaths, whether in Italy or elsewhere, include a mention about an underlying condition. Majority of the deaths are like that.

Would love to see a source that sheds light on this, but couldn't find anything through a quick search.
 

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10,000 deaths from 245,000 infections globally gives up 4% death rate holding steady, that's pretty damn scary
Official death rate will probably rise even higher (maybe closer to 5%) because cases growth is very fast now and deaths follow cases with some delay (a week or so).
However, nobody knows how many people with the virus don't know that they are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (few or no symptoms at all). It's impossible to check it but I think this number could be at least a few times larger than number of confirmed cases (which would significantly lower actual mortality rate).
 

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However, nobody knows how many people with the virus don't know that they are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (few or no symptoms at all). It's impossible to check it but I think this number could be at least a few times larger than number of confirmed cases (which would significantly lower actual mortality rate).
You are absolutely right that the real number of cases could be significantly larger than the confirmed ones. In fact, studies made on Iceland, where a random selection of people was checked for the Virus, suggested that the actual number of cases was a factor 100 larger than the confirmed ones. While similar studies have not yet been made in Sweden (but are in preparation), our state epidemiologist (Anders Tegnell) did not rule out that similar statistics applied here, which, if true, would correspond to well over 100 000 cases in Sweden (more than 1 % of the population).
 

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Yeah, AFAIK that's not the case. On the Worldometer website e.g. many of the reported deaths, whether in Italy or elsewhere, include a mention about an underlying condition. Majority of the deaths are like that.

Would love to see a source that sheds light on this, but couldn't find anything through a quick search.
Most countries count deaths in patients with coronavirus, regardless of other conditions. As far as I know, Germany is the only country who doesn't do this (thus artificially lowering their count and making comparisons harder).

The reason the fatality rate in Italy is so high is that the hospitals are overloaded, there are not respirators for everyone and they're sending home all patients over 75 because their chance of recovery even with respirators is smaller than that of younger patients. Most likely the death rate in other countries will reach similar figures in a few days/weeks once their number of cases grow enough.
 

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You are absolutely right that the real number of cases could be significantly larger than the confirmed ones. In fact, studies made on Iceland, where a random selection of people was checked for the Virus, suggested that the actual number of cases was a factor 100 larger than the confirmed ones. While similar studies have not yet been made in Sweden (but are in preparation), our state epidemiologist (Anders Tegnell) did not rule out that similar statistics applied here, which, if true, would correspond to well over 100 000 cases in Sweden (more than 1 % of the population).
Well, if the factor is x100 indeed than the virus is less dangerous to the global population than it's thought and the pandemic "saturation" will happen with a smaller number of official cases.
 

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With respect to USA, most schools and colleges have moved to online teaching and most students who are studying hundreds and thousands of miles away from home have gone home to live with their parents. Most employers are asking people to work remotely, whenever they can. Most public libraries, public museums, and other public places are closed. Most bars are closed. Most restaurants have closed their doors to in-person dining and are only open for drive-thru orders and pick-ups. Most businesses are operating for less than normal hours. The US congress has passed the law to send checks to people who lost earnings by staying home so they can meet their basic expenses. The US government is encouraging people to stay home and educating people on social-distancing.

I don't know what you are talking about.
Well I think you replied to yourself. "Most" bars and public places are closed and the US goverment is "encouraging" people to stay home. In other words, there's no quarantine and no measures have been taken yet.
It seems politicians all around the world are unable or unwilling to learn from what happened in Italy, or just can't comprehend exponential growth.
 

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Well, if the factor is x100 indeed than the virus is less dangerous to the global population than it's thought and the pandemic "saturation" will happen with a smaller number of official cases.
From what I understood, the factor 100 should be taken with a grain of salt (more statistics could be needed, and the generalization from Iceland to other countries can be questioned), but I think there is little doubt that the ratio between actual and confirmed cases is large everywhere. And, as you argue, in the big scheme of things this is good news. The potential drawback is that the elderly and other persons belonging to high-risk groups must fight even harder to protect themselves.
 

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Most countries count deaths in patients with coronavirus, regardless of other conditions. As far as I know, Germany is the only country who doesn't do this (thus artificially lowering their count and making comparisons harder).

The reason the fatality rate in Italy is so high is that the hospitals are overloaded, there are not respirators for everyone and they're sending home all patients over 75 because their chance of recovery even with respirators is smaller than that of younger patients. Most likely the death rate in other countries will reach similar figures in a few days/weeks once their number of cases grow enough.
Probably not. Italy (and especially northern Italy) has a number of factors making it an outlier. It has one of the most elderly populations in Europe and many of them live with younger relatives (thus making it easier to catch the disease). It also has very high pollution levels and a high percentage of smokers (especially among the older population). So you have an elderly population, many with existing poor lung health, which is why the death rate is way higher than anywhere else even with comparable infected (China has over twice the number of infected but less deaths).
 

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Italy death toll has officially surpassed China.
+400 people die everyday in Italy because of coronavirus.
As of today there are 3.400 casualties compared to China 3.200.
Could i ask... wtf happened in italy? Like why Italy after China and why so bad. Really confused and very sorry for them,many italian friends where i live. Great nation
 

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Probably not. Italy (and especially northern Italy) has a number of factors making it an outlier. It has one of the most elderly populations in Europe and many of them live with younger relatives (thus making it easier to catch the disease). It also has very high pollution levels and a high percentage of smokers (especially among the older population). So you have an elderly population, many with existing poor lung health, which is why the death rate is way higher than anywhere else even with comparable infected (China has over twice the number of infected but less deaths).
None of these factors are specific to Italy compared to many other European countries. In fact the same thing is going on in Spain right now, specifically in Madrid, where the death rate is currently about 9% (628 deaths out of 7165 diagnosed cases). Italy is not an outlier.
 

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Here is a useful picture from Wikipedia, I don't know where it is sourced from at their page. Situation shown as of March 18.
As it can be seen, most countries are at a growth rate between doubling every 2 to 3 days, and leveling doesn't even start before 3 weeks after a 100th case was identified (disregard some outlier countries, like S.Korea, Japan, Singapore...). At best the crest can be expected to be reached no sooner then 5th week after the 100th case. With borders virtually closed, each country will have it's own peak date.
By TedjevanEs - File:Epidemic curve update 18 march 20.jpg - Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0, File:Epidemic curve update 18 march 20.png - Wikimedia Commons
354710
 

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I've mentioned this elsewhere, but there is a story here:


Social distancing would be needed for "at least half of the year" to stop intensive care units being overwhelmed, according to official scientific advice.
It's going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to justify holding sporting events if social distancing measures are still in place. Perhaps in some of the less affected countries it will be possible to hold domestic sporting events. But I don't see how you can have international sporting events take place in this context.

And, remember, that's not "half of the year" that's "at least half of the year"; ie. half of the year is the best-case scenario.

If major sporting events are held, and players or officials contract the virus, the organisers are going to look completely ridiculous. Especially considering the pressure that will be bearing down on healthcare facilities at that time. There is no way that they can take a chance and just hold things on the off-chance that no-one gets ill.

So I would really stand by my view that if there is any elite sport in 2020 then we should be grateful. I certainly don't expect to see any tennis.
 
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