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Discussion Starter #1
Mark my words!

Given that MTF is all about outrageous predictions (that either do or do not come true), this is mine.

Reasoning, this is how the curve has gone for South Korea and for China. Why would Italy, and the rest of the world be different. We are discovering new methods for treating coronavirus that will become more effective as this knowledge becomes more widespread.

Rather than all the doom and gloomers, I'm happy to be a ray of sunshine. I was curious whether the ATP would try to keep calm and carry on, but with cancelling all events through to June, it seems that they have made their assessment. This might be really unfortunate for them, if I'm correct here, because they would have lost a month where they could have played had they kept their nerve.

So, don't expect either Wimbledon or the Olympics to be cancelled. You heard it here first. As for the RG 'rescheduling', I have no idea how that will work out.
 

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The OP could be correct, but I say the OP is wrong. Pandemics can have a second wave. Once you think you are on top and life goes back to normal, it's likely to start up again. The Chinese have been battling this thing for 3 months and they are still battling it. Europe and the US have only started to take tough measures, so expect the next 3 months to be dominated by this virus. Life is not just going to go back to normal. It's gonna be a while before things go back to normal.
 

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If China still has to fight the virus despite using the most draconian measures the West cannot hope to emulate, I'm not quite as optimistic for the rest of the affected countries.

But the key will be the ability of the health care systems to handle the load of sick corona patients along with whatever else we are used to deal with. If that aspect improves, everything else will improve.
 

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Chief, a few days ago you predicted that it won't hit 10k deaths at all while I said it's only a matter of days. Now it's almost at 9k and will hit 10k tomorrow or on Friday (in Italy alone it's almost 500 deaths per day). You clearly aren't good at analysing data.

As for the peak, I partially agree this time. it should happen in a few weeks (in April most likely), in Italy maybe within 1 or 2 weeks, but how high it'll be, that's the question (one week longer exponential rise may result in a few times more cases). Besides, decline could be more gentle and authorities will probably apply strict measures well after the peak anyway (jeopardizing Wimby start). Italy is clearly a different case than China and can't be directly compared to it - daily death rate is already 3x higher despite being much smaller country (unless China falsified data). Different countries deal with the pandemy with varying efficiency. BTW I don't think it's the end of pandemy in China, more like dormancy - there could be another outbreak (probably in the autumn), especially after they loosen up a bit.
 

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Maybe we all should start smoking weed and then publishing fantasy threads like OP. Lockdown will be more fun this way.
 

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We are discovering new methods for treating coronavirus that will become more effective as this knowledge becomes more widespread.
Not true in a medical sense. We are discovering new ways of preventing and managing and diagnosing, but no treatments/therapies.
 

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Chief, a few days ago you predicted that it won't hit 10k deaths at all while I said it's only a matter of days. Now it's almost at 9k and will hit 10k tomorrow or on Friday (in Italy alone it's almost 500 deaths per day). You clearly aren't good at analysing data.

As for the peak, I partially agree. it should happen in a few weeks (in April most likely), in Italy maybe within 1 or 2 weeks, but how high it'll be, that's the question. Italy is clearly a different case than China and can't be directly compared to it - daily death rate is already 3x higher despite being much smaller country (unless China falsified data). Different countries deal with the pandemy with varying efficiency. BTW I don't think it's the end of pandemy in China, more like dormancy - there could be another outbreak (probably in the autumn), especially after they loosen up a bit.
The difference between Italy and the rest of the world lies in its peculiar way of counting the victims.
In Italy only two people without pre-existing conditions have died because of coronavirus.
Every single person who has died because i.e. heart diease (or whatever) AND coronavirus is counted as dead because of coronavirus.
I'm pretty sure no other country is doing the same. That's why death rate is about 8℅ (!) in Italy and 3℅ anywhere else.
 

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The difference between Italy and the rest of the world lies in its peculiar way of counting the victims.
In Italy only two people without pre-existing conditions have died because of coronavirus.
Every single person who has died because i.e. heart diease (or whatever) AND coronavirus is counted as dead because of coronavirus.
I'm pretty sure no other country is doing the same. That's why death rate is about 8℅ (!) in Italy and 3℅ anywhere else.
Well, this could explain higher mortality rate in Italy but I'm not so sure that this classification method is unique and only used in this country (the virus is most deadly to older people with pre-existing conditions anyway). However, Spain, being at an earlier pandemy stage than Italy, also beat peak China already (with 182 deaths per day). Other countries are following. It's growing fast, not only in Italy. Europe as a whole will be a massacre compared to China (this comparison makes sense when you look at populations).
 

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Mark my words!

Given that MTF is all about outrageous predictions (that either do or do not come true), this is mine.

Reasoning, this is how the curve has gone for South Korea and for China. Why would Italy, and the rest of the world be different. We are discovering new methods for treating coronavirus that will become more effective as this knowledge becomes more widespread.

Rather than all the doom and gloomers, I'm happy to be a ray of sunshine. I was curious whether the ATP would try to keep calm and carry on, but with cancelling all events through to June, it seems that they have made their assessment. This might be really unfortunate for them, if I'm correct here, because they would have lost a month where they could have played had they kept their nerve.

So, don't expect either Wimbledon or the Olympics to be cancelled. You heard it here first. As for the RG 'rescheduling', I have no idea how that will work out.

You are delusional, I'm sick of the fanboys here who let their bias for their favorite idol get in the way of facts and science. Italy suffered the worst death toll yesterday but you think this will soon be over so your chosen idol can play a tennis tournament? Do you have any empathy or grasp on reality?


chinas death rate is huge , you don't see reports because the state owned ccp media only posts good news propaganda, the real death toll in china's around 100,000 and that was with the totalitarian measures taken like welding apartment doors shut trapping being inside to die, crematoriums running 24/7 , whistleblower scientist who alerted the world of the virus was arrested for spreading negative 'wrong think' online and mysteriously died. you have to be very ignorant or naive to believe any information coming out of china.

south korea was fortunate to stop the virus getting out of control when a secretive korean christian sect brought the virus into the country but sk government are still under reporting cases because there still is flare ups of corona cases.

Wimbledon is virtually all but canceled, most of the audience are elderly million year olds who are most at risk of contracting coronavirus and it being fatal, you must be insane to think AELTC will risk scores of people attending dying if they contract it from one random person.. Forget about the Olympics too, that will will be delayed by at least a year.
 

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Rumours are that the British Military will be locking the country down on Friday. If true, there is more to all this than a virus.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Chief, a few days ago you predicted that it won't hit 10k deaths at all while I said it's only a matter of days. Now it's almost at 9k and will hit 10k tomorrow or on Friday (in Italy alone it's almost 500 deaths per day). You clearly aren't good at analysing data.
It is still below 10k deaths, and 300k infections, well below both numbers at present. We shall see what happens.

As for the peak, I partially agree this time. it should happen in a few weeks (in April most likely), in Italy maybe within 1 or 2 weeks, but how high it'll be, that's the question (one week longer exponential rise may result in a few times more cases). Besides, decline could be more gentle and authorities will probably apply strict measures well after the peak anyway (jeopardizing Wimby start). Italy is clearly a different case than China and can't be directly compared to it - daily death rate is already 3x higher despite being much smaller country (unless China falsified data). Different countries deal with the pandemy with varying efficiency. BTW I don't think it's the end of pandemy in China, more like dormancy - there could be another outbreak (probably in the autumn), especially after they loosen up a bit.
How high it gets in Italy depends on a few factors, I'd be very surprised if they surpassed China. Also, I expect the death rate to drop rather drastically with the new therapies, like the quinone drugs that have shown some success in treating Coronavirus. We shall see.

Maybe I'm wrong and we see twice that number. Still a better prediction than the apocalyptic predictions...
 
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