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This isn't about changing one match and rest everything happens as it did. But rather which one match in the Big 3 rivalry do you think would have altered the future quite significantly?

I think it's RG 2012 final. Can you imagine if Nadal loses that? It would be by far the most mentally damaging loss of his career and who knows what would have happened in the future after that.
 

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Matches that could seriously alter the future of the big 3:
Wimbledon 2008 - if Fed had won it from 2 sets down he might not have had that mental block vs Nadal.
AO 2009 - might have changed Nadal development on HC, who knows how that would have effected them later on. Might have really helped roger.
USO 2010 SF - If Fed had won, novak might not have the belief he can beat Fedal going forward.
Wimbledon 2014 - Djokovic coming into that final was 1-5 in his last 6 GS finals, if he had lost from MP up in the 4th set, he might not have had the mental edge over Federer going forward.
AO 2017
Wimbledon 2018

These are that stand out the most to me. There are some matches, that perhaps losing them have helped the player in the long run.
 
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My vote goes to a non-Major match, although some if not most of the matches of such significant potential have already been mentioned.
Madrid 2009 SF Djokovic loss to Nadal. Even after that win Nadal went away for the rest of the season. A win for Djokovic could have been a huge boost at that point in time.
 

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USO2010. Djokovic had started to show some form ahead of the 2011 true arrival. Imagine if he won that final.

W18 SF. If Nadal won this who knows what would have happened to Djokovic, plus it would have been another W for Nadal.

2011 RG SF/F - If Djokovic beats Rogie, I think he wins the final. If Rogie were to have beaten Nadal in the final it would have been huge. It was his best chance IMO.

RG13 Obviously.
 

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I'll pick ten.

WB 08' - Nadal got a place among the greatest legends.
USO 10' - Djokdal substitutes Fedal.
RG 11' (both matches)
USO 13' - Nadal claimed ATGreatess in hard again and fought his demons against Djok.
WB 14' - The pass of the torch. Djokovic was destined for WB GOAT.
AO 17' - What a classic. Federer made peace with himself.
WB 18' - Djok rose from ashes.
RG 20' - Against many odds. Nadal kept believing during 2021 because of it.
RG 21' - DCGS for Djok.
 

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USO2010. Djokovic had started to show some form ahead of the 2011 true arrival. Imagine if he won that final.

W18 SF. If Nadal won this who knows what would have happened to Djokovic, plus it would have been another W for Nadal.

2011 RG SF/F - If Djokovic beats Rogie, I think he wins the final. If Rogie were to have beaten Nadal in the final it would have been huge. It was his best chance IMO.

RG13 Obviously.
Very wise to pick the combo of RG 2011. It's crazy how much things could have changed from 2010-2012 (Pre-prime Djok, prime Nadal, post-prime Fed).
 

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My two cents. And I have only considered those matches which were close

RG 2012 F - If Rafa would have lost that, it would have been a deadly loss of confidence and aura, which might have significantly altered the GS race, in Novak's favour.
Wimby 2018 SF - A loss to Novak would not hurt him much, as he was in a comeback mode, but would have bolstered Rafa's credentials on grass.
USO 2019 F - A loss for Rafa from 2 sets up would have been a heartbreaking one for him and dented his confidence on Hard courts. Likewise, would have announced with a bang the arrival of new Young champion (Medvedev) on the tour.
USO 2020 F - Arguably the most heartbreaking loss for a young generation star! Zverev might have reached greater heights, if he could have closed out the final. A loss for Thiem would not have mattered much career wise, as subsequently, Dominic just withered away due to multiple injuries
AO 2017 - A win for Rafa, would have firmly placed him in an unassailable lead in GS race, as he would have fed on an awesome aura of a winner. It would in most probable case, would have been a triple GS titles for him, and also with all the confidence, placed him in pole position to reach another Wimby final against Federer.

Lastly, many might not agree with this, but I believe that Federer beating Novak in RG 2011, was actually a disadvantage to Rafa, unlike what most of the MTFians believe. It is a known fact, that Rafa plays at a different confidence level at Philippe Chatrier and could have actually won against Novak in the finals and broken the mental block against him in 2011 itself. It would have assisted him at playing at a higher confidence level at next 3 GS title matches
 

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For me as a Federer fan, three matches stand out in this context: 2008 Wimbledon final, 2009 Australian Open final, 2011 US Open semi-final. That Wimbledon final was obviously a turning point, especially coming after the French Open hammering; Roger's tears said it all after the AO defeat; and I don't think I need to explain the significance of 40-15.

 

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Wimbledon 08. If Federer comes back from 2 sets and matchpoints down against Nadal it does wonders for his mental strength and confidence and he probably goes on to beat him again at AO 09 and goes into the USO with a shot at the calender slam.
 

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Wim 19. Even the most rabid haters would have to admit Fed's the undisputed GOAT if he wins that. Fed losing that felt like he flushed his entire career down the toilet.

The best part about winning Wim 19 would've been that nothing dullovic win after that would've mattered. Even if they win 30 slams, it wouldn't have mattered. Counted sure, but not mattered.

It's the greatest injustice not only in tennis but in sports history. Truly the most revolting and vomit-inducing sports result I've ever had the misfortune of seeing. Plus croctards never miss a chance to rub it in with disgusting gifs and images is just cherry on top of the turdcake.
 

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For Federer, the following three matches stand out.

1) Rome 2006. I know this wasn’t a slam match, but imagine the confidence it would have given Federer if he had been able to defeat Nadal in a best of five match on clay.

2) Wimbledon 2008. If Federer doesn’t lose the final, he doesn’t lose the AO 09 final either. It was after the 08 Wimbledon final that Federer developed a mental block against Nadal, which lasted until 2017.

3) Wimbledon 2014. A lot of people will point to the US Open 2011 SF as the turning point in the Fedovic rivalry. I don’t because Federer beat Djokovic the following year at Wimbledon. I believe the 2014 Wimbledon final turned the rivalry in Djokovic’s favour. If I remember correctly, a lot of people were predicting Federer to win the final. Even Federer himself must have thought that he would beat Djokovic on grass, but after his failure to win the final, he developed a mental block against Djokovic.
 

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For Federer, the following three matches stand out.

1) Rome 2006. I know this wasn’t a slam match, but imagine the confidence it would have given Federer if he had been able to defeat Nadal in a best of five match on clay.

2) Wimbledon 2008. If Federer doesn’t lose the final, he doesn’t lose the AO 09 final either. It was after the 08 Wimbledon final that Federer developed a mental block against Nadal, which lasted until 2017.

3) Wimbledon 2014. A lot of people will point to the US Open 2011 SF as the turning point in the Fedovic rivalry. I don’t because Federer beat Djokovic the following year at Wimbledon. I believe the 2014 Wimbledon final turned the rivalry in Djokovic’s favour. If I remember correctly, a lot of people were predicting Federer to win the final. Even Federer himself must have thought that he would beat Djokovic on grass, but after his failure to win the final, he developed a mental block against Djokovic.
Don´t know about Wimbledon 2014...felt like Djokovic was better and should have won 3-1...only his choke in the 4th made it close.
 

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Don´t know about Wimbledon 2014...felt like Djokovic was better and should have won 3-1...only his choke in the 4th made it close.
Yes, Djokovic should have won in four sets, but I believe after that match, Federer started a similar sort of mental block against Djokovic that he had against Nadal from 2008-17.
 

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Djokovic choking when he was in contention for the Golden

Wont ever happen again and he had a clean path to it

zero reason for him choking when he had zero real threats
 

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For Federer, the following three matches stand out.

1) Rome 2006. I know this wasn’t a slam match, but imagine the confidence it would have given Federer if he had been able to defeat Nadal in a best of five match on clay.

2) Wimbledon 2008. If Federer doesn’t lose the final, he doesn’t lose the AO 09 final either. It was after the 08 Wimbledon final that Federer developed a mental block against Nadal, which lasted until 2017.

3) Wimbledon 2014. A lot of people will point to the US Open 2011 SF as the turning point in the Fedovic rivalry. I don’t because Federer beat Djokovic the following year at Wimbledon. I believe the 2014 Wimbledon final turned the rivalry in Djokovic’s favour. If I remember correctly, a lot of people were predicting Federer to win the final. Even Federer himself must have thought that he would beat Djokovic on grass, but after his failure to win the final, he developed a mental block against Djokovic.
That Rome final was certainly a key match, but while Wimbledon 2008 is also one of my choices, I think it's too simplistic to say that it affected the result of the 2009 AO final – did Federer lose because he had developed a mental block or because Nadal ran around like a rabbit? And despite Federer's Wimbledon win in 2012, that US Open SF still seems to me a more important defeat, especially coming after the previous year's loss to Djokovic, in both cases having had two match points. Moreover, those two SF losses denied us Federer-Nadal finals, and as we all know, they still have never met at the USO, and presumably never will.
 
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