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Assuming he wins the final which for all practical purposes is a certainity, Nole will be 5th in the race; less than 150 points away from Del Potro and around 250 points away from Zverev. Federer will be around 700 points away. Assuming he is anywhere like close to back to 70% of his peak, he should overtake Del POtro and Zverev comfortably. Federer might likely play a reduced schedule, so chances are he will overtake Federer even without being at his best.

That leaves us with NAdal who will be a good 2400 points away and who should be the favourite for YE#1. But that lead isn't insurmountable if Nole wins the USO as well or has a good indoor season and Rafa doesnt win the USO.

IMO, it currently looks like a two horse race between Rafa and Nole for YE#1
 

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Minor chance. Quite far behind Rafa. Would need a Murray '16 type run and/or some luck (an upset for Rafa, e.g. in USO). First and foremost obviously needs to win tomorrow. Fed with likely a lighter schedule is within striking distance, but catching Rafa will be tough.
 

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He does have a chance, yes. There are still a lot points to be gained and lots of scenarios that could play out that can place him on top by the end of the year. If he wins Wimbledon, he has a pretty good shot - maybe 20%.
 

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Unlikely, mostly given Nadal's current form. With 3 Masters, YEC and USO still on the plate, I don't see Nadal not earning at leat 2500 points at those. Which would mean that Nole would need around to 5000. Which means USO, YEC and at least one Masters event. That's a long shot.
 

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There's definitely a chance, albeit small....considering that Novak is still finding his old self (even though he has been brilliant this tournament). Both Nadal and Federer skipped various parts of the season which gives Djokovic an opening. But first he has to win Wimbledon to even be be part of the conversation.
 

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We didn't think it was possible for Nole to lose the #1 spot after FO 2016, things can turn around on a dime and Novak is one of those players who can just about win everything.

I hope the rest of the year has more surprises and new champions emerge.
 
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