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While it has been proven that this is a fine place of experts whose astonishing talent and vision for the sport would never even allow them to make any predictions wrong and who would never misuse the words "overrated" or "underrated" in an inflatonary way, the same thing hasn't been done with the way more unreliable bookies. As a result of that I decided to come up with this experimental thread during the boring off-season to evaluate the bookies odds for the current top 10 over the course of the next year, dependant on my own motivation of course.
To determine how well the bookies rate those players, I will give every player a score based on his performance in relation to his odds starting with 0 at the beginning of the season. For a win I will substract the opponents winning percentage, for a loss I will add a players own winning percentage:
Player wins: -p (opponent)
Player loses: +p (player)
Example: Player A vs. Player B, Player A has a winning percentage of 80% and wins.
Player A will then get a -0.2 to his current score while Player B receives a +0.2.
This means that a minus score stands for underrated and a plus score for overrated.
I will take those percentages from the bookies odds displayed on flashscore.com (probably the bet365 ones, but am up for better suggestions). Just for the record, I will use the following formula to get the winning percentage out of the bookies odds. Assume that will eliminate the margin the bookies take for betting:
p (player) = 1 / [ odds (player) / odds (opponent) +1 ]
All in all, for all that are interested in this, what do you expect to happen? Feel free to leave any suggestions, maybe some ideas how to turn this into a funny game (till the next season starts ofc.) or ask me whatever you like about this.
Reminder: This is not a thread to discuss your specific bets. Want to do this, please visit the betting thread:
www.menstennisforums.com
To determine how well the bookies rate those players, I will give every player a score based on his performance in relation to his odds starting with 0 at the beginning of the season. For a win I will substract the opponents winning percentage, for a loss I will add a players own winning percentage:
Player wins: -p (opponent)
Player loses: +p (player)
Example: Player A vs. Player B, Player A has a winning percentage of 80% and wins.
Player A will then get a -0.2 to his current score while Player B receives a +0.2.
This means that a minus score stands for underrated and a plus score for overrated.
I will take those percentages from the bookies odds displayed on flashscore.com (probably the bet365 ones, but am up for better suggestions). Just for the record, I will use the following formula to get the winning percentage out of the bookies odds. Assume that will eliminate the margin the bookies take for betting:
p (player) = 1 / [ odds (player) / odds (opponent) +1 ]
All in all, for all that are interested in this, what do you expect to happen? Feel free to leave any suggestions, maybe some ideas how to turn this into a funny game (till the next season starts ofc.) or ask me whatever you like about this.
Reminder: This is not a thread to discuss your specific bets. Want to do this, please visit the betting thread:

Betting Thread
Maybe use this for some nice odds and just giving an outlet to write it down... Basha was a 2.55 against Struff, I'm glad I took that on... but I took it in a multi, so now I need Thiem to come through.