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I was skimming through bet365 as i do and one odd that looks a total mess is

Fognini at 2.0 and the Kok 1.75

Now I'm not one to bet but does anyone else feel this is super generous?
 

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Fog is a horrible player on hards.
Given Kokk's form and Fog's quality on hards this is a no-bet.

That being said, yeah it's usually pretty easy to find value bets in the tennis market. Way easier than in football for example.
 

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Thats the betting publics opinion. The books just adjust their lines in accordance. I dont touch small fry like fog and kok in Tennis.

I make my money Opposing the big boys at the right Time.

NADAL and FEDERER are my chief money spinners. Because The betting public overrate their chances even in their declined states.

Nadal in particular right now isnt going to make any finals this year in MS 1000 and Slams. Its time to bet against him after the first few rounds.

Murray just won Montreal. He wont be winning Cincy. So I will be opposing him from the QTRS. IF he gets there.

Serena delivered a nice payday SaturdY when she lost to Bencic at 6.00

This is how you make money in tennis. Top players cant win everything. They get taken by longshots from time to time. The knack is reading when this is likely to happen.
 

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Any Fog match where he is higher ranked/better overall player immediately begins as a 50/50 proposition because you don't know which Fog is going to show up. If he doesn't care and tanks, then he will lose 100% and against a guy that is playing well and prefers hardcourts like Kokk it is about 50/50. So, 50/50 in the match and 50/50 that Fog even shows up means that Kokk would be the overally favourite in the match.

I never bet on Fog or Verdasco and usually fade them for the simple fact that half the time they just don't care enough to try all out unless they are playing Nadal
 

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i would call it a mistake at first sight too, but Pinna is never wrong and they have 2.22 for Fogna, so i'd rather pound the price on Thanassi, coz there's better chances it's underestimated due to the Fog's notoriety, while it might end easily 6-3 6-2 for the Kokk.
 

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Fognini is generally under-rated by the books. Bet on him every match 2012+ at pinnacle opening prices and you'd have made 5%.


The problem though: any form of estimate you make is swamped by the unknown, ie if he gives a shit that particular day. Absent inside info on that, the market price is thus likely to be more accurate than anything you can come up with.
 

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Agree phase3....great post.

Would add that you have to be prepared to be laying and backing in play.

People backing who they like is where bookies can clean up.

Throughout entire last week thought Novak had no chance, didn't get to see the match yesterday, but before going out he was 1.26 lay.........Murray was 3.2 to win which was a gift really.

As I watch most Novak matches, this just seemed too good to be true! But hey it's payday!
Yes I was on Murray that was too good a price to ignore. It will be interesting to see how the public feels now. Should they meet in the Cincy final. Im pretty sure Novak wouldn't be so short a price this time. My first target is Nadal if he gets through the first two rounds. And Federer.

Djokovic is the mystery man here, he has never won Cincy. Is it going to happen this year? Of course the U.S open is the real target.
 

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Aside from last year, Fognini has never done anything at Cinci.

2011 - R2 - Beat Troicki, Lost Blake
2012 - R1 - Lost F Mayer
2013 - R1 - Lost Stepanek
2014 - QF - Beat ERV, Hewitt, Lu, Lost Raonic 6-0 6-1
 

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:devil:Fabio might just win this although he does have a wrist problem and Hard courts aint his fave....FORZA
 
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