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Lol.

So there is actually no single bookie offering all those odds?

Thats just my point. I agree with scouting for better odds, but those were merely the best ones around the web.

Do you not see that once they're combined at a different bookie, they will balance out more again?
But if youre not having any value then theres zero point making that accumulator. Bookies arent stupid. If a 1,70 price is available then it means the 1,53 surely do not hold value. If there is no value then you cannot profit in long run.


First site I looked at had
353295
Thats quite big difference to his 5,60
 

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Mmoh leads the head to head 1-0 beating Millman in the final of a challenger whilst still a teenager so I wouldn't be in a rush to back Millman especially considering he's never played this tournament before whereas Mmoh breezed through qualifying.

I'd be more tempted by Mmoh tbh.
Well not sure but probably that was when Millman just comeback from a big injury or even before that, he become a much better player after that comeback, plus Mmoh didn't show much improvement in years really (surely injuries effected him badly as well) , Millman is a much more complete player compared to Mmoh, as well as a good matchup I think
 

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Well not sure but probably that was when Millman just comeback from a big injury or even before that, he become a much better player after that comeback, plus Mmoh didn't show much improvement in years really (surely injuries effected him badly as well) , Millman is a much more complete player compared to Mmoh, as well as a good matchup I think
Don't get me wrong, my instinct is with Millman but there's too much doubt for me to personally back it.

Good luck
 

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Just saw Sousa is @3.3 to beat Pospisil and @1.95 with a +3.5 game handicap so what am I missing?

Sousa ranked a lot higher.
Both a similar age.
Sousa a more successful career and plays better opponents more often.
Pospisil came through qualifying but against an unranked opponent and then a 16 year old ranked in the 500s.
Sousa leads the head to head 4-1 including a couple of hard court meetings.
Pospisil won their last match in straight sets at Shanghai in October.

Is there any reason not to back Sousa at those odds?
Hmm, Pospisil has better weapons on hard court, carried a good form from last year and continues. Sousa on the other hand was totally out of form. I backed Pospisil there, even would go handicap or 2-0 without much doubt actually. Personally I would say Ceck is more likely to win against Albot with nearly same odds to this match. Good luck btw
 

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Pospisil to beat Joao Sousa
Edmund to beat Davidovich Fokina
Purcell to beat Collarini
Lorenzi to beat Menendez
Bedene - Paul over 21.5 games
Bublik - Evans over 21.5 games
Mott to beat Pedro Sousa
Margaroli/Vavassori to beat Mukund/Sun
Zapata Miralles to beat Tabilo
Hoang to beat Janvier
Peers/Venus to beat Sharan/Sitak
Vesely to beat Karatsev
All 12 matches @120.21 and other small combinations of these matches.
Wow are you gonna play this coupon, actually looks fine to me most of these (no idea on Dubs, + Edmund and Hoang doesn't feel safe (+maybe Mott just at @1.5) but rest seems safe to me) Good luck
 

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Hmm, Pospisil has better weapons on hard court, carried a good form from last year and continues. Sousa on the other hand was totally out of form. I backed Pospisil there, even would go handicap or 2-0 without much doubt actually. Personally I would say Ceck is more likely to win against Albot with nearly same odds to this match. Good luck btw
What's most important to you (or anyone else in the thread) in terms of who'll win a match?

Form?
Surface?
H2H?
Tournament record?
H2H against similar opponents?
Other?
 

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What's most important to you (or anyone else in the thread) in terms of who'll win a match?

Form?
Surface?
H2H?
Tournament record?
H2H against similar opponents?
Other?
1-Matchup (It includes surface in times as well). I think it is the most important thing in tennis, a player can be useless against one and much better against one nearly in the same rankings. Sometimes a player just have significant advantages against another under some circumstances and it matters the most in their matches so h2h can be useful here, but when conditions change previous matches mean nothing I believe (but sometimes there are mental pressures or so, like in big rivalries or big Matches so h2h means a little bit more in those times I think) .

2-Form. How does a player play recently is quite an important thing as well for me. It can be risky to judge purely on form but players develop or got worse in some time in all aspects of the game and they have poor or Red Hot periods sometimes depending on the changes so a form is usually likely to go that way. But keep in mind every kind of form gets cut one day, trusting only form is a bit risky to me but still an important aspect.

I personally think H2H against likewise players and surface gives most details about a matchup, but there is times form seems more important as well. Putting all in a perspective is the hard side though, it differs in every match.
 

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1-Matchup (It includes surface in times as well). I think it is the most important thing in tennis, a player can be useless against one and much better against one nearly in the same rankings. Sometimes a player just have significant advantages against another under some circumstances and it matters the most in their matches so h2h can be useful here, but when conditions change previous matches mean nothing I believe (but sometimes there are mental pressures or so, like in big rivalries or big Matches so h2h means a little bit more in those times I think) .

2-Form. How does a player play recently is quite an important thing as well for me. It can be risky to judge purely on form but players develop or got worse in some time in all aspects of the game and they have poor or Red Hot periods sometimes depending on the changes so a form is usually likely to go that way. But keep in mind every kind of form gets cut one day, trusting only form is a bit risky to me but still an important aspect.

I personally think H2H against likewise players and surface gives most details about a matchup, but there is times form seems more important as well. Putting all in a perspective is the hard side though, it differs in every match.
Good points there. I would say H2H (taking into account surfaces) and form are probably the main two things I'd take into account as well as their general record on the surface. There are many matches though where all logic goes out the window.

That's the trouble with betting on tennis. Unlike team sports, if one man is off his game for whatever reason then you're completely screwed.

My accumulator for this evening:

Sousa Win
Lorenzi Win
Seppi/Mannarino Under 22.5 games
Kavcic Win

Pays about 9/1 but really interested to see how Sousa/Pospisil goes.
 

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But if youre not having any value then theres zero point making that accumulator. Bookies arent stupid. If a 1,70 price is available then it means the 1,53 surely do not hold value. If there is no value then you cannot profit in long run.


First site I looked at had View attachment 353295 Thats quite big difference to his 5,60
Nice odds.

Any tax deduction? Usually the better odds sites strip 5% for taxes.

Mine doesn't have any taxes
 

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Guys, Sousa had a ankle injury few days ago in training. He even delayed his trip to Auckland for one day because he was afraid that the ankle could swell...
Did see that on twitter but I think he's been around long enough to withdraw rather than play through the injury a week before AO and even if not there's a chance of retirement and the bet becoming void.
 

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Please delete all my Sousa comments. 🤦‍♂️

Don't understand how he managed four wins over Pospisil in the past based on what's happening out there at the minute.
 

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Had a 10-match accumulator (each one having the player to win a set), only Bedene f'd it...Gonna go with Taberner to beat Hanfmann today, just for the sake of Hanfmann being shit on hard courts.
 

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For tomorrow i see some good Value:

Isner @ 1.80 vs. Sandgren, or 1,30 to win a set.
Paire @ 1.66 against Monteiro
Carreno Busta @ 1.95 vs. Chardy
Auger-Alliassime @ 1.66 against Duckworth, I know Felix is in a slump, but Duckworth should be doable for him.

What do you think?
 

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Discussion Starter #1,617
Wouldnt touch Isner.

I have Sandgren @ 2.4 there. But that's just me.
 
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