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Novak should enter Dubai fast low bounce surface with Federer and Bautista whose game should suit the surface and Tsitsipas.

Rafa selected Acapulco whose surface is more IndianWells like and should face Wawrinka Dilmitrov and De Minaur. Curiously big servers like Isner Zverev Anderson selected Acapulco over Dubai too.
 

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After Dubai, Novak defends total of 135 points at both masters of Sunshine double, while Rafa defends his SF at IW (360 points). In total, for the last three tournaments before the clay season, Rafa defends 405 and Novak 135 points.

HOwever due to the fact that NOvak will kick off his clay season in Madrid, he will need to build about 1000 points cushion at Dubai, IW/Miami before he starts playing on clay since Rafa plays MC and Barca where he can gain 960 points if he wins both.
The math would be: 325 current lead plus 270 less to defend = 595. So NOvak will needs to win (960-595 =365 ) 365 points more than Rafa at Dubai/IW/Miami to stay at No1 before start of Madrid (at that point he would have 289 weeks)
 

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After Dubai, Novak defends total of 135 points at both masters of Sunshine double, while Rafa defends his SF at IW (360 points). In total, for the last three tournaments before the clay season, Rafa defends 405 and Novak 135 points.

HOwever due to the fact that NOvak will kick off his clay season in Madrid, he will need to build about 1000 points cushion at Dubai, IW/Miami before he starts playing on clay since Rafa plays MC and Barca where he can gain 960 points if he wins both.
The math would be: 325 current lead plus 270 less to defend = 595. So NOvak will needs to win (960-595 =365 ) 365 points more than Rafa at Dubai/IW/Miami to stay at No1 before start of Madrid (at that point he would have 289 weeks)
You are predicting far too far in the season for my small brain but I am afraid Nole also won 180 pts in MC 2019 that should be gone unless he asked for a WC.
 

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You are predicting far too far in the season for my small brain but I am afraid Nole also won 180 pts in MC 2019 that should be gone unless he asked for a WC.
You are absolutely correct .. forgot to include those points.
So, if Novak maintains his current schedule (skips MC), he will need to earn 365 + 180 = 545 points more than Rafa at Dubai/IW/Miami to be safe at No1 until start of Madrid
 

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Interesting/great decision for Novak to skip Monte Carlo imo, didn’t know he was thinking that. Take a small break before Madrid and go all out for 3 events.
 

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Interesting/great decision for Novak to skip Monte Carlo imo, didn’t know he was thinking that. Take a small break before Madrid and go all out for 3 events.
Personnally I found weird to skip tournament in the city where you live......

But probably he felt there are some more natural clay players, that can skip or tank Miami, and/or train and play from Marrakech..... and trying to defeat them is draining for him.

Or he thought playing the whole clay season is too draining if he wants to be competitive on grass.

Or and I bought this one better, haters are right, his defensive skills are declining or causing painfull elbow and he decided to keep on building his serve, sacrifying some Clay in the process.

I may be wrong but when analyzing the field and except Thiem, most NextGen' weakest skill is return so it is maybe an easier asset to avoid being broken than taking risks when returning and running like a rabbit for hours to try to break them.
 

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Interesting/great decision for Novak to skip Monte Carlo imo, didn’t know he was thinking that. Take a small break before Madrid and go all out for 3 events.
Personnally I found weird to skip tournament in the city where you live......

But probably he felt there are some more natural clay players, that can skip or tank Miami, and/or train and play from Marrakech..... and trying to defeat them is draining for him.

Or he thought playing the whole clay season is too draining if he wants to be competitive on grass.

Or and I bought this one better, haters are right, his defensive skills are declining or causing painfull elbow and he decided to keep on building his serve, sacrifying some Clay in the process.

I may be wrong but when analyzing the field and except Thiem, most NextGen' weakest skill is return so it is maybe an easier asset to avoid being broken than taking risks when returning and running like a rabbit for hours to try to break them.
Guess what. Novak just added MC in his schedule

 

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Mission accomplished in Dubai. Novak clinches 282 weeks at No.1

The only unknown is the point lead before start of IW
 

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Novak will enter IW with 685 points advantage (at minimum ... if Rafa beats Fritz tonight), which means that he will need SF in Indian Wells to keep the NO.1 for two more weeks

@Nepoznati Knez - My friend, you can modify the thread title now since we are past Dubai
 

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Novak will enter IW with 685 points advantage (at minimum ... if Rafa beats Fritz tonight), which means that he will need SF in Indian Wells to keep the NO.1 for two more weeks

@Nepoznati Knez - My friend, you can modify the thread title now since we are past Dubai
Brate I know you call me pessimistic but I am not that secured about that Indian Wells...

Desert wind and high bounce favours Rafa powerfull topspin ball more than Nole light accurate ball and a defensive Monfils was about to defeat Nole in faster Dubai.

Not sure Nole can prevail if facing Rafa there.

That said you are right Nole just need SF to keep his ATP#1.
 

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There's nothing Nadal can do to stop Djokovic
On the contrary, Djokovic must do his best to max out on IW/Miami hard courts. Nadal lost early in MC, Barcelona, and Madrid last year, and can make a substantial points haul in those events. Djokovic cannot afford to have the numbers be so close going into the clay, he must have a cushion after Miami
 

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On the contrary, Djokovic must do his best to max out on IW/Miami hard courts. Nadal lost early in MC, Barcelona, and Madrid last year, and can make a substantial points haul in those events. Djokovic cannot afford to have the numbers be so close going into the clay, he must have a cushion after Miami
Well I join you on most point, except :
  • I am pretty sure Rafa will not play Miami
  • even if points are bigger in the later stages and Rafa can improve in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid... then Djokovic can also improve in Monte Carlo.... Anyhow Thiem could be a real bothering goatfly both in Indian Wells and on Clay.
 

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Brate I know you call me pessimistic but I am not that secured about that Indian Wells...

Desert wind and high bounce favours Rafa powerfull topspin ball more than Nole light accurate ball and a defensive Monfils was about to defeat Nole in faster Dubai.

Not sure Nole can prevail if facing Rafa there.

That said you are right Nole just need SF to keep his ATP#1.
No worries .... Novak's level is very high at the moment.
Rafa on the other side is also red hot and usually plays OK at IW, BUT he isn't young anymore to chase Novak's shots tamos vamos under the hot California sun.
 

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At the moment it looks again like the Year End No. 1 will be Rafa or Djokovic with the advantage for Djokovic. This is intersting.
 
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