[emotion]

Federer and Murray are closing in fast...

Points right now from live-tennis site (I pray it hasn't already subtracted IW points or all this was a waste of time):
2 Nadal 10435
3 Federer 8710
4 Murray 7450

Points being defended:
Nadal 1200
Federer 720
Murray 90

So a Federer win IW (+640), Murray SF (+315) , Nadal 2r (-510) would be:
Nadal 9925 Federer 9350 Murray 7765

Let's say in Miami, Murray (+955) wins over Federer (+240), with Nadal losing QF (-420). Then we have:
Federer 9590 Nadal 9505 Murray 8720

There are more dramatic ways to work with this, and I think Murray could get to #2 himself, by winning both (+1910) with Nadal losing 2r in both (-1110) making it 9360-9325 but it's unlikely. However, there seems to me a very good chance of leaving this events in pretty much a 3 way tie for #2. I also think Nadal needs more than a razor's edge to keep #2 for long, also, because of how horrible Federer was last year to open the clay season. And, of course, whoever gets to #2 now is probably going to be briefly #1 as even if Djokovic continues to lead the race, he has almost no points from post-USO tennis.

 

[emotion]

Personally, I think Nadal hangs onto it a while longer, though it could be taken a few weeks later

 

[Mystique]

Right now Nadal is number 2 deservedly. Made the last 4 Slam finals, lost to only one guy.
However, it will be amazing if Fed can get to nr 2 before FO. Then, he just may get lucky with the draw.
But Roger will have to play really good - win one, maybe 2 - at the upcoming Masters where the surface is slow as ass. And hope Nadal underperforms and Murray doesnt go on a tear.
Hard ask, but one can hope as a fan.

 

[abraxas21]

you really think nadull will lose in R2 in miami and IW?

People quickly forget that if it weren't only for just one player (djokovic obvs.) nadull would surely have won 4 of the last 4 GS

 

[SerialKillerToBe]

Did we really need another topic about this? I made one yesterday and now we have like 3.

 

[samanosuke]

there is no battle for #2. Fed was doing well in last half of year just because majority of matches played indoors and on maybe fastest HC currently . He won't do anything big till the grass court season

 

[samanosuke]

Fed on #2 would mean the last chance for Nadal winning a slam has gone though

 

[Alex999]

I don't think Fed will overtake Nadal. It's not impossible of course, but I doubt it...

 

[nsidhan]

No way Rafa is losing 2R at IW. I do see DelPo getting to #4 as a possibility.

 

[Filo V.]

Nadal will be at least #2 for the foreseeable future.

 

[sexybeast]

Let us make this less extreme, Nadal loses in Indian Wells and Miami QF to Del Potro/Berdych/Tsonga. Federer wins final against Murray in final.

In Miami Federer gets to SF, Murray beats by Djokovic in final and Nadal loses in QF as mentioned, standing is:

Nadal 9595 Federer 9350 Murray 8960


Then Djokovic beats Nadal later on in Monte Carlo final and Nadal falls to nr3 as he gets to defend Barcelona and Rome/Madrid final.

 

[reery]

How is Federer going to win IW/Miami when he has not won there since 2006? Federer might win a masters series in the upcoming weeks at Madrid. He's done better at Madrid than at IW/Miami since 2009. IW/Miami are very slow HCs. Djokovic/Murray are the favorites to win IW/Miami.

 

[NJ88]

Murray has so little points to defend in the next couple of tournaments he's bound to make some headway on catching both Federer and Nadal. He played so badly last year that winning one of the the Masters events will bring him a lot closer.

I think there will be a proper battle on for the number two spot in a few months or something. Nadal has a lot of points to defend still, with Fed having less and Murray even less.

 

[sexybeast]

How is Federer going to win IW/Miami when he has not won there since 2006? Federer might win a masters series in the upcoming weeks at Madrid. He's done better at Madrid than at IW/Miami since 2009. IW/Miami are very slow HCs. Djokovic/Murray are the favorites to win IW/Miami.

Ljubicic won there 2 years ago at Feds age, if Ljubatruba can do it I guess Roger can do it too, no?

 

[reery]

Ljubicic won there 2 years ago at Feds age, if Ljubatruba can do it I guess Roger can do it too, no?

I know. But 2010 was a weird year, hence why Nadal won 3 slams.

 

[emotion]

you really think nadull will lose in R2 in miami and IW?

People quickly forget that if it weren't only for just one player (djokovic obvs.) nadull would surely have won 4 of the last 4 GS

no, i dont. i used that to show even murray could get there. i do see some potential for very early IW loss though, it's been a while since he plays. i personally think nadal will still have it by the skin of his teeth after these 2, though he may well lose it at MC

 

[Mountaindewslave]

no, i dont. i used that to show even murray could get there. i do see some potential for very early IW loss though, it's been a while since he plays. i personally think nadal will still have it by the skin of his teeth after these 2, though he may well lose it at MC

this is extremely far fetched, what was the last time Nadal lost in 2nd round of anything, like last year in Canada when he likely didn't care to win and was beat only by a free swinging wild Dodig?

IW and Miami or both very well suited to Nadal's game, it is not very likely he loses the #2 rank so soon. it could happen by Roland Garros if Nadal gets injured thoughhhhh or if his clay game is off

 

[emotion]

all depends on the draw. Karlovic or Davydenko and it could happen. Montanes and it won't.

 

[Federer4Everer]

Tight and getting tighter. Especially if Murray wins Miami tonight? And if Fed jumps into M-C at the last minute? And many of the upcoming clay events dropping last year's points one week before this year's points get posted?

 

[emotion]

And if Nadal DOES withdraw from MC, Federer would only need a QF :bounce:

And Murray wins today, and he's right back in it