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Lopez to beat Mathieu @ £3.8

Lopez was finalist here last year and seems to enjoy the fast conditions that the Gstaad altitude provides. Mathieu is probably in the form of his life but he has had some pretty attrocious defeats in Gstaad down the years, including against Vemic last year when he was cruising and somehow contrived to lose it.
Mathieu is hardly reliable so Lopez worth a try here.

Vliegen to beat Gasquet

Odds haven't really sorted themselves out for this match yet but Vliegen holds a superior H2H record against Gasquet....including a win at Roland Garos and Gasquet looked quite out of sorts against Hidalgo..maybe feeling the affects of his Wimbledon run? It must be hard to bring yourself up to playing in damp conditions in a place out of nowhere when you were just playing the worlds best player on a packed Wimbledon centre court a couple of days ago. Hoping Vliegen can capitalise.
 

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Lopez to d. P-H Mathieu 3.00
Simon to d. Monaco 2.50
Verdasco to d. Soderling 2.25

Tempted on Jenkins to d. Amritraj. I think Jenkins previous match statistics means he should win against Amritraj even doe Jenkins is losing 1-0 head-to-head.
 

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1.91 looks a nice price on El Fatty Fashionista to beat the out-of-form Seppi.
1.91?! :eek: I'll be giving this some thought as well.

1 interesting point is that Mr. Seppi has a R2 curse going on. This tournament marks the 8th time this year that he is bidding to reach the QF...and he has yet to do it. :tape:
 

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1.91?! :eek: I'll be giving this some thought as well.

1 interesting point is that Mr. Seppi has a R2 curse going on. This tournament marks the 8th time this year that he is bidding to reach the QF...and he has yet to do it. :tape:

Someone just put a bit up for 2.02 on betfair....

Seppi has quite a horrible record against lefties. He has beaten Koubek here though in 3 breakers a couple of years ago.
 

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Liking the title Jaap! :yeah: I'll be doing some of that as well...although I think I'll leave Lalo's match alone. Sure, there is a chance he could beat PHM, but a match involving an incompetent player and the best choker in the world...? No thanks! :lol: GL.


A lot of nice looking dogs tomorrow. Definitely a day where I'll have to pick my top 2/3! :lol:

Koubek shouldn't be the dog against Seppi.
Starace should get more respect (plays Andreev).


Simon perhaps has more of a chance than the 2.80 price tag suggests (plays Monaco).
Verdasco over Soderling @ 2.68. Absolutely NOT A CHANCE IN HELL I play this! :haha: Soderling screwed me over one too many times earlier this year (and I fired him) and Verdasco, well... :smash: Otherwise, it is a logical bet imo...for anyone with a strong heart.


Dupuis has a shot against Mahut imo.
Udomchoke struggles with aggressive tennis (plays Zverev).
 

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Interesting day ahead, there seems a bit of value in the Spanish lefties Verdasco and Lopez.

Im looking at them aswell as:
Gasquet 1.5, riding the winning train and wants to defend points. Could rest next week and miss Stuttgart.
Monaco 1.5, a better version of Simon at his best but hard to tell whether he is in the pre FO form?
Andreev 1.45, wants to keep climbing the rankings after his long lay-off and a nice win from behind in 1st round.

Anything at 1.5 is risky and not too sure whether il play any of them yet?????
 

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Simon perhaps has more of a chance than the 2.80 price tag suggests (plays Monaco).
Monaco was just awful against Gulbis, but as so often happens the dog just can't seem to get past the finish line and cause the big upset. Gulbis's game might have been a bad match for Monaco in the first round and today might be a different story against Simon who likes to rally and counter punch (and struggle and choke for that matter).
 

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WTD 4-4 (+32.52 units)

Vliegen over Gasquet @ 3.00 (5 units)
This may seem absurd considering Gasquet's recent run at Wimbledon, however Vliegen seems to have Richard's number. He's 3-0 H2H against Gasquet including a straight sets thrashing at Roland Garros, he's also beaten Gasquet at Monte Carlo and has a win on hard at a challenger. The altitude should also help Vliegen's serve kick up high enough to take it out of Gasquet's comfort zone on the first and second serve.

Koubek over Seppi @ 2.08 (5 units)
These two have only played once before and it was at the same event two years ago with Seppi prevailing in three tiebreaks. Seppi's form has been horrendous this year including losing a set last week to Michel Kratochvil (who just recently came out of retirement after a few years) and then losing the next round to Daniel Muñoz-de la Nava. Who? Exactly. Stefan has more in his arsenal than Seppi and his compact lefty strokes are enough to get Seppi on the move and exploit his weak passes.

Starace over Andreev @ 3.00 (3 units)

Starace is a solid player on clay and there's no reason he should be this big of an underdog. Igor probably has the edge here, but I don't think Potito should be priced any lower than 2.2 or so. Potito managed to win their last meeting and that was on hard in Doha '06. Hopefully he can take out the Russian.

Söderling over Verdasco @ 1.59
(9 units)
I feel that Toad should completely overpower Verdasco with his huge serve and big flat strokes. The surface doesn't really bother me because Robin always plays well on Swedish clay, he completely trashed Ferrer here 6-3 6-1 last year. I'm pretty confident that Söderling should win this.
 

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Seppi @1.90

I wouldn't read too much into Seppi's performance in Turin, playing there the 2nd week of Wimbledon must have been a last minute decision and probably not taken with the heart. And I would read even less into Koubek's win over Youzhny, Youzhny was probably still handicapped with his back injury, and/or dreaming dreams of Wimbledon. The last three months, Koubek won exactly three matches, against Verkerk, C. Rochus and Berrer (on clay). And at any rate, Koubek seems to have some mental barriers. In the past he had a terrible habit of blowing things the very minute I was thinking he had finally learned to make consistent use of his abilities, which I don't deny btw.

Time for me to get some money back I lost on Koubek before.
 

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WTD: 2/1 (+6.01 units [+133.9% ROI]).

Koubek over Seppi @ 2.02 (1 unit) - really not sure why Seppi is quoted as the favourite here. Sure, the Italian leads 2/0 h2h, but both wins came 18 months ago when he was in career form. Currently, his form absolutely stinks, as demonstrated by a 3/13 record against top 100 players this year, and a tally of 7 ATP R2 defeats (this is his 8th attempt at passing R2). To be fair, there aren't too many positives with Koubek either - for instance, he last advanced to an ATP QF in Memphis, February. However, the Austrian proved that maybe he is waking up again with a fine R1 win over Youzhny (if Youzhny were badly injured, why would he show up?) and I think it is fair to say that if he plays as well as he is capable of, he can chalk up his first win over the Italian today. He has a big serve which can help him out with cheap points and powerful groundstrokes that can send Seppi diving from side to side. The Italian doesn't possess the world's fastest serve (despite being a tall player) and his lack of strength could be exposed with angles. This weakness may also go some way to explaining his poor tiebreak record - 2/9 in 2007; 7/12 in 2006. On the contrary, Koubek can feel quite happy with a tiebreak as he boasts a 7/3 record this year, and he notched up a 6/2 record last year. One would also expect the Italian's poor record against lefties (10/23 and 3/12 on clay) to perhaps let him down as well. All in all, there are plenty of reasons to oppose Seppi in this one!


Dupuis over Mahut @ 3.65 (0.94 units...didn't accept my full unit :mad: ) - If I were a lawyer, I'd be making out a case against the person who compiled these odds that they were being age-ist and journeyman-ist towards Dupuis. :armed: After little success earlier this year, the Frenchman boarded a plane to Uzbekistan 2 months ago and underwent a career facelift, and has since not looked back. Okay, he is 34 years old but his huge serve, powerful groundstrokes and nice touch at the net have allowed him to run rings around players young enough to just about be his sons. Mahut is the latest upstart to dare to tread into Tony's path and, if the h2h record is anything to go by, Tony will have a limited patience with him. :fiery: The older Frenchman has won 3 of their 4 meetings, with Mahut winning his sole match 6/7 7/6 7/6. All 4 meetings have been on fast courts, and so this 5th meeting is no exception. Mahut is probably a better player than he was back in the day but, given that Dupuis is quite capable of holding his serve 90%+ of the time (if he serves as well as he is capable of) the match should be very tight (and will probably feature a tiebreak). In fact, Dupuis could feel quite happy holding for tiebreaks as Mahut doesn't have a habit of winning them - 4/12 in 2006 and currently 5/8 in 2007. Both men are in-form resulting in what should be another cracking match. Therefore, I simply can't pass up these incredible odds!
 
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