[Ace Pounder]

(I am not a moderator, but I am anticipating. So here...)

It's becoming a tradition on MTF, so let's keep "merging" all the Qualifying results in a single thread. GM won't be a mess this way.


Here is the Draw.
And here is the OOP.

 

[AndreiPavel]

Zeballos - Copil hope Marius win this

 

[Caro159]

Which courts will be streamed?

 

[GugaBackhand]

Matches I'd like to watch on R1

Melzer x Jarry
Ymer x Paire
Przysiezny x Zopp
Odesnik x Harrison
Donaldson x Banes
Nishioka x Lama

And I'd like to see Jasika x Zverev on R2

 

[CooCooCachoo]

Some interesting match-ups:

Jenkins vs. Ram
Ymer vs. Paire
Huta Galung vs. Harris
Mahut vs. Hernych
Alex Kuznetsov vs. Dancevic
Odesnik vs. Harrison, two major brats :lol:
Dustov vs. Broady
Zeballos vs. Copil
Smith vs. Zverev
Gombos vs. McGee
Mitchell vs. Marchenko

Smyczek vs. Authom seems a lock for Q3. Could be a really interesting match.

Rhyne Williams sure got a great draw here, with Kudryavtsev and Sugita as the seeds in his section.

 

[CooCooCachoo]

My predicted qualifiers:

Jarmere Jenkins USA
Steve Darcis BEL [17]
Pierre-Hugues Herbert FRA [3]
Maxime Authom BEL
Matthias Bachinger GER [24]
Jan Hernych CZE
Aljaz Bedene SLO [7]
Ryan Harrison USA
Thiemo de Bakker NED [21]
Michael Berrer GER [10]
John-Patrick Smith AUS
James McGee IRL
Rhyne Williams USA
Lukasz Kubot POL
Yoshihito Nishioka JPN
Adrian Menendez-Maceiras ESP [16]

 

[ReturnAce]

Odds are out

http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/australia/atp-australian-open/

 

[Crustaceok]

Awful draw for the chilean players

 

[Rustie]

Decent draw for Broady, he's got an opportunity here.

A Brit, false Brit and Irishman in the same section too.

 

[cinnabar]

Gombos - McGee

This sucks

 

[CooCooCachoo]

Decent draw for Broady, he's got an opportunity here.

A Brit, false Brit and Irishman in the same section too.

How is Dustov a decent draw?

 

[emotion]

My picks:
Dzumhur
Darcis
Paire
Smyczek
Bachinger
Pavlasek
Bedene
Harrison
Dustov
Bemelmans
A. Zverev
Gombos (weak section)
Kudryavtsev
Nedovyesov
Basilashvili
Lokoli

 

[Gliese581]

predicted qualifiers:

jarmere jenkins(i would pick damir but he seems to be allergic to getting into the top 100. been so close for a long time but every time he has a chance he flops)
steve darcis
pierre-hugues herbert(how far has benoit fallen though, to have to be playing qualies. dark horse langer..just because)
kimmer coppejans
andreas beck (more a hope here. it'll probably be bachinger)
frank dancevic(really lucked out with this draw)
aljaz bedene
ryan harrison
thiemo de bakker
michael berrer? ( i literally have no freakin idea. anyone could get through here)
john patrick smith
norbert gombos
jozef kovalik
lukasz kubot
evgeny donskoy
laurent lokoli

a lot of these sections are extremely difficult to predict.

 

[Wojcirej]

Not so bad draw for Przysiężny, but Zopp in first round can be tricky opponent. But I think it's on Michał's racquet.
Łukasz with Brisbane performance is NID in MD. So... make so noise, Łukasz! :armed:
Also rooting for:
Melzer (Jurgen of course)
Darcis
Herbert
Paire
Mahut
Jasika
McGee

 

[Sombrerero loco]

cant wait

(i d prefer to have separated threads for every match though)

 

[GasquetGulbis]

cant wait

(i d prefer to have separated threads for every match though)

Some people just want to watch the world burn.

 

[ClutchOn&Win]

Andrew Harris to beat Huta-Galung

I don';t know what Huta-Galung is doing with his career atm, but he really isn't on the earth's radar when it comes to tennis. Living on planet koo-koo land and I feel this is the perfect draw for the youngster to set him on his way for a valiant attempt at qualifying for the main draw. Andrew unlike Huta-Galung is a very, very good match-player, smart shot selection, moves well and packs a nice punch.

Momentum is high coming into this one for Andrew, with his results in the Australian challenger that's just gone by. He's match-tight, Huta's barely played much tennis thus far this season and was pathetic against De-bakker. Home boy wants it more and will draw short balls from Huta's backhand and get on the front-foot in points.

Miloslav Mečíř JR to beat Dzumhur

Match-up favouring the Czech here. Dzumhur second serve sits up far, far too much for Mecir. He usually just kicks it into the backhand wing, that for which is Mecir's stronger side. Nice leaning forward backhand, will make a far share of up-the-line return of serve winners, or just shots that will have Dzhumer on the backfoot in the point immediately, leaving Mecir in the easy control of the point. Dzhumur will be playing the role of counter-puncher in his own service games and Mecirs' service games. Dzhumur's backhand is virtually non-existent and a nothing slice, a containing shot. It won't be containing Mecir though. Comprehensive win for the more experienced Czech.

Jan Mertl to beat Guilherme Clezar

Mertl's been in a good rhythm with his game recently and with his game in that decent sort of check, he should really be seeing this through in comfortable fashion. Clezar's got game, but how well he transcends that to the hardcourts is questionable for me, he will struggle to hide that backhand and run around it for the duration of the match. Mertl cheap points with the serve and potent off both wings. May take 3, since Clezar may start swinging in set 2, but ultimately Mertl to get the job done. He's got some feel goodness coming into this one.

 

[cinnabar]

what courts are being streamed?

 

[InfoKenway]

what courts are being streamed?

Rod Laver Arena, Hisense Arena, Margaret Court Arena, as well as Show Court 2 and Show Court 3, plus Court 6 and Court 8

 

[Chris Kuerten]

First round match-ups to watch:

(2) Jurgen Melzer – Nicolas Jarry

Melzer has gone off the deep end since Wimbledon, going on a bad streak which saw his ranking plummet from inside the top 50 to outside the top 100. In his first match this year, against Martin Klizan in Brisbane, he did well to go up a set and a break, but after that he lost the plot and eventually got breadsticked in the third set. Nicolas Jarry has very limited experience on hardcourt, but the 19 year old is a very promising player who should be able to adapt. He already showed that in the qualifying draw of Sydney this weekend, when he took Viktor Troicki to 6-4 in the third set. Don’t get me wrong, Melzer should still be marked a solid favorite, but Jarry may well push him more than most people are expecting.

(18) Benoit Paire – Elias Ymer

Paire has been struggling with a knee injury for a while now, making his second comeback within a year at the Hopman Cup last week. He did reasonably well, not winning a singles match but keeping it respectable in all three of his losses against Andy Murray, Jerzy Janowicz and Marinko Matosevic. 18 year old Ymer is rising rapidly: only a year ago he was ranked #768 and he is now heading towards the top 200 at #212, after beating Igor Sijsling in the first round of Chennai last week. Paire is the favorite, but it won’t be easy.

(12) Norbert Gombos – James McGee

Can James McGee do it again? After his dream run at the US Open last year, where he qualified for a slam for the first time at the age of 27, he surely wants to repeat that qualifying run here. It’s not inconceivable. Gombos has always been the least comfortable on outdoor hardcourt and last week he lost to world #261 Matt Reid in the second qualifying round of Brisbane.

(20) Alexander Zverev – John-Patrick Smith

Zverev hasn’t looked comfortable ever since he made that dream run at Hamburg last year, reaching the semi-final out of nowhere. Since then he posted a 0-3 record in ATP main draws and 8-10 in qualifying and challengers. Smith has always performed above average in Australia and has a good chance of beating Zverev in front of a supportive home crowd.

First quarter

Top seed Damir Dzumhur has a tricky opening round against Miloslav Mecir, but if he manages to survive that encounter another big hurdle potentially awaits him in #23 seed Rajeev Ram, who went through the qualifying draw in 2013 and beat Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the first round before losing to Marin Cilic in the second. Ram has shown he knows his way around the Australian hardcourts, but nevertheless I still give Dzumhur the slight edge to get through this section.

In the second section the favorite has to be #17 seed Steve Darcis. He won the Noumea Challenger last week, beating world #44 Adrian Mannarino 6-3 7-5 in the semi-final, and he is quite clearly at a much higher level than his ranking suggests, which is so low due to an injury spell. #2 seed Jurgen Melzer might still be a tough nut to crack, but Darcis is a crafty player who can handle Melzer’s power. Although the matches were played all the way back in 2008 and 2011, Darcis leads the head to head against Melzer 2-0, which should be an indication of what is coming.

The third section is very interesting, with a couple of names who could advance. As mentioned, #18 seed Benoit Paire should be able to beat Elias Ymer, but in the final qualifying round a couple of very dangerous players might await. Most likely this will be #3 seed Pierre Hugues-Herbert, but youngsters Hyeon Chung and Ramkumar Ramanathan are in there with an outsider’s chance as well.

In the final section I will predict what may come as a surprise to most. #4 seed Tim Smyczek leads this section, but he has never convinced outside of America and I think #29 seed Luca Vanni will get the better of him. Vanni qualified into Chennai last week and went down to Ricardas Berankis in the first round after a long fight, 1-6 6-2 5-7.

To qualify from this quarter: (1) Dzumhur, (17) Darcis, (18) Paire and (29) Vanni.

Second quarter

The first section is difficult to predict. The seeds are #5 Andreas Beck and #24 Matthias Bachinger, but the unseeded players might well pull off an upset. You never know what Jesse Huta Galung is going to do, while Andrew Harris surprised with a semi-final at the Happy Valley Challenger last week. You also have Matthew Ebden, who was ranked in the top 70 a year ago, but has made a spectacular dive since, now being ranked #264. But perhaps the off-season helped him and he fixed his game. Nevertheless, I will predict Bachinger to get through. He actually played Beck last week in the qualifying draw of Doha, winning 7-6(1) 6-4. He also did well in his most recent Grand Slam experience, coming through the US Open qualifying draw last year to set up a second round encounter with Andy Murray.

The second section holds a lot of older players. 32 year old #6 seed Nicolas Mahut will square off with 35 year old Jan Hernych in the first round, for example. In the second round 32 year old Andre Ghem potentially awaits. Mahut landed a comfortable section and I think he will go through. He should be able to handle #27 seed Frank Dancevic.

After reaching the final of Chennai last week, Aljaz Bedene is quite clearly the overwhelming favorite to get through the third section. If you can beat two top 15 players, the Bradley Klahn’s of this world should be doable as well.

In the final section we will see if Ryan Harrison can continue his revival, after winning the Happy Valley Challenger last week. He faces countryman Wayne Odesnik in the first round and will likely face off with #8 seed Jimmy Wang for a place in the main draw. Harrison beat Wang 6-4 6-4 in the qualifying draw of Brisbane last year, so if he indeed is back, he should be able to repeat that victory.

To qualify from this quarter: (24) Bachinger, (6) Mahut, (7) Bedene and Harrison.

Third Quarter

#9 seed Farrukh Dustov heads the first section, but I have to go with my countryman Thiemo de Bakker here. After not caring about the sport for a long time he looks to be on the right track again, pushing David Ferrer to the brink in Doha. De Bakker even started eating vegetables again, which he refused to do for years, so that tells you everything.

The man who overcame Rafael Nadal in heroic fashion last week, Michael Berrer, will try to get through the second section. He potentially faces the unpredictable Ruben Bemelmans in the second round, who could pose a threat. Robby Ginepri and #28 seed Hiroki Moriya face each other in the other half of the section, but this seems to be a cushy draw for Berrer, trying to qualify for the final Australian Open of his career.

#11 seed Horacio Zeballos leads the third section, but he is in awful form and isn’t even the favorite to get through his first round match against Marius Copil, let alone qualify. I would actually mark Copil the favorite to get through the entire section, which also features Philipp Petzschner and the earlier previewed couple of Alexander Zverev and John-Patrick Smith.

In the final section I’m going to predict another miracle run of James McGee, who after beating #12 seed Norbert Gombos will take care of a slumping #22 seed Somdev Devvarman, which is the ideal pairing of seeds for an unseeded player to make a run.

To qualify from this quarter: (21) De Bakker, (10) Berrer, Copil and McGee.

Fourth Quarter

Rhyne Williams has shown some positive signs after a disappointing 2014, qualifying into the main draw of Brisbane. He faces #13 seed Alexander Kudryavtsev in the first round, who hasn’t been in the best shape lately. An in-form Williams should be able to overcome him, followed by #19 seed Yuichi Sugita in the final qualifying round. Sugita had a bad start to the season, losing 6-4 6-2 to world #270 Guilherme Clezar in the first round of the Noumea Challenger.

The second section offers a perfect opportunity for unseeded Lukasz Kubot to get through. The Pole had a great run at Brisbane, getting through the qualifying draw and beating world #16 Kevin Anderson in the first round, before falling to Sam Groth in the second round after a third set tiebreak. The seeds in this section are Aleksandr Nedovyesov and Iliya Marchenko, both of which Kubot should be able to handle in his current form.

The third section is very interesting, with several players who could go through without any surprise. #15 seed Evgeny Donskoy faces Yuki Bhambri, who could pose a threat if Bhambri can reach the level he had prior to his injury problems. This is unlikely however, as he has been struggling ever since his comeback in July. In the second round Donskoy would probably face the talented 19 year old Yoshihito Nishioka, but given his heat-related retirement at the US Open last year I’m not sure if he is ready to face the Australian heat. Also in this section is Nikoloz Basilashvili, who reached the second round of Doha after beating world #93 Filip Krajinovic in the final qualifying round and #45 Mikhail in the first round of the main draw before falling to Ivo Karlovic.

In the final section #16 seed Adrian Menendez-Maceiras has an excellent opportunity to qualify for his second Australian Open. It’s one of the weakest sections of the draw, with #25 seed Gastao Elias being his biggest challenger. Menendez-Maceiras reached the final of the Noumea Challenger last week and should comfortably survive this section.

To qualify from this quarter: Williams, Kubot, (15) Donskoy and (16) Menendez-Maceiras.

http://tennisatlantic.com/2015/01/13/2015-australian-open-mens-qualifying-preview-and-predictions/

In summary, my predicted qualifiers:

(1) Dzumhur
(17) Darcis
(18) Paire
(29) Vanni
(24) Bachinger
(6) Mahut
(7) Bedene
Harrison
(21) De Bakker
(10) Berrer
Copil
McGee
Williams
Kubot
(15) Donskoy
(16) Menendez-Maceiras