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Discussion Starter #1
If I calculate this right and taking into account the state of the race before Dubai started:

Federer 6630
Nadal 6005
Djokovic 5085

Between Dubai and the end of RG here are the points that they have to defend

Federer 2005
Nadal 3350(!!)
Djokovic 1900

Which would leave them each with these points as a baseline

Federer 4625
Nadal 2655
Djokovic 3185

There's a total of 4100 points up for grabs between Dubai and RG (or 4000 if someone prefers to play Estoril over Barcelona). How's this for some fantasy scenarios.

If Djokovic wins every tournament between Dubai and the end of RG then there's no way anyone can stop him from taking over as no 1 :D (I don't think so.)

If Nadal wins every tournament between Dubai and end of RG. He still might not be number 1 if Federer picks up RU finishes at all the Master events and RG.

For Federer not to be number 1 after RG he'd have to do pretty abysmally. I think if he stays around the 6200 mark then Nadal is going to have to improve his season this year compared to last year which isn't impossible but pretty unlikely or Novak is going to have to win the FO as well as 3 or 4 of 5 Masters Series events as well as go deep in the other events he doesn't win to get to number 1.

Bottom line I don't see Federer not being number 1 till we get into the meat of his season last year which was between Wimbledon and the US Open. It's no impossible for one of the others to get there just pretty unlikely. Nadal though has to watch out for Djokovic. The difference between their two seasons last year up till RG was 1450 points. It's not inconceivable to see Djokovic pick up half that and Nadal lose half that.
 

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It depends on whether Federer picks it up. I can see Nadal stopping Djoko from getting 2nd by beating him in their match-ups on the dirt.
 

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Who cares if he will have number 1, when he will only win one slam this year? He will still get beaten by every young gun in sight at at least 3/4 slams. God help him if he meets Murray at wimbledon, then he won't be winning any.
 

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Eventually he's gonna lose his #1 (wow, I'm so deep :devil: ) - but I must admit I didn't expect it to be seriously threatened so soon. Also, I admit I hope Fed steps it up again and restores order in the Universe. :angel:
 

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I predict that after RG Novak will be No. 1, Roger No. 2, and Nadal No. 3.

In the immortal words of Dijana/Mountain Hag: "You can write that down."
 

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I predict that after RG Novak will be No. 1, Roger No. 2, and Nadal No. 3.

In the immortal words of Dijana/Mountain Hag: "You can write that down."
Wonderful for Djokovic to have a mother who is able to forsee the future. What a gifted family. :p
 

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There's a total of 4100 points up for grabs between Dubai and RG (or 4000 if someone prefers to play Estoril over Barcelona). How's this for some fantasy scenarios.
Actually, this is a bit misleading... 4100 points for one player, but even if a player doesn't win a single tourney, he could still amass almost 3000 points as the RUP at every tourney. So in a way there are a lot more than 4100 points for grabs, between the three - just no more than 4100 a piece.


That also means you are wrong that if Nole wins EVERY tourney, he's #1 no matter what. Actually, if he wins every tourney, but beating Fed in finals each time (how likely is that, however :) ) - he's still #2.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Actually, this is a bit misleading... 4100 points for one player, but even if a player doesn't win a single tourney, he could still amass almost 3000 points as the RUP at every tourney. So in a way there are a lot more than 4100 points for grabs, between the three - just no more than 4100 a piece.


That also means you are wrong that if Nole wins EVERY tourney, he's #1 no matter what. Actually, if he wins every tourney, but beating Fed in finals each time (how likely is that, however :) ) - he's still #2.
How do u get 3k points if he's RU in every tournament? Dubai is out. RU in 5 MS = 1750. RU RG = 700. So 2450 in total. I certainly don't see Federer playing either Estoril/Barcelona!
 

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How do u get 3k points if he's RU in every tournament? Dubai is out. RU in 5 MS = 1750. RU RG = 700. So 2450 in total. I certainly don't see Federer playing either Estoril/Barcelona!
Ups, my bad. Yes, he's out of Dubai already, silly me, I forgot. :devil:


But then again, how can you not see Federer playing Estoril when it's in his schedule already?
 

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But then again, how can you not see Federer playing Estoril when it's in his schedule already?
And even more, if the ranking situation is like described at that time, be sure Feds will indeed turn up in Estoril!
 

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If I calculate this right and taking into account the state of the race before Dubai started:

Federer 6630
Nadal 6005
Djokovic 5085
Did I miss something?

 

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Djokovic would have much better chances to pass Nadal if he did little better in Masters Cup. I am still wondering how he managed to lose all 3 matches so easily, not winning a single set... If he done better he would be so close to Federer and Nadal. He is still not that close, especially because he is defending so many points in next two masters series tournaments. He will need to win both to get closer to Nadal and Federer.
 

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Everything will depend on Roger's results at Indian Wells and Miami. He has a golden opportunity to pull himself up by the bootstraps there and widen his lead a bit. Nadal, meanwhile, is about to be under pressure big time in Indian Wells with a lot to lose and nothing really to gain.

But as far as clay is concerned I see Nadal comfortably dominating every event he enters. I just don't see how anyone can challenge him. The only question mark may be Rome which plays faster than the other events. There is also quite a few points to defend at Hamburg and we all remember how much Rafa tired himself out playing there last year.

Roger needs solid performances in Indian Wells and Miami, otherwise he's losing #1. I wouldn't be too shocked if he had a major letdown on clay this spring. I don't see him making the RG final. He needs to get his wins on hardcourts.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
Ups, my bad. Yes, he's out of Dubai already, silly me, I forgot. :devil:


But then again, how can you not see Federer playing Estoril when it's in his schedule already?
if he does well in IW and goes deep in Miami I can see him not playing Estoril at all.
 

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if he does well in IW and goes deep in Miami I can see him not playing Estoril at all.
Hang on a second. Of course it is possible that he skips Estoril. But originally you didn't say 'I can see him not playing' - you said 'I CAN'T see him playing'. That's completely different.

If you said the former, I wouldn't say anything. But it's rather odd to say you can't see someone playing an event which is in his schedule actually, is it not?


(Std. disclaimer: Sorry for being such a pain in the arse etc.)
 

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Can't see Djoko becoming No. 1 before US Open, and even then its highly improbable. But the dirt season begins shortly, so Nadal has some chances (tho has loads of points to defend)if Fed makes some more bloopers as he did in Dubai (what is again highly improbable, this was wake up call, I think). We'll see.
 
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