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Thiem and Medvedev did something great in this tournament. Each of them beat both Djokovic and Nadal this week. What's more, before the semis I kinda expected this outcome (none of Djokodal looked favoured to me), which had never happened before. Will younger guys get the upper hand over legends at slams in 2021 as well? Will one of them reach #1 soon? Discuss. Here is my take:
HC: on this surface we are closest to a tipping point, the change is happening already. Thiem reached finals of the biggest HC tournaments of 2020 (AO, USO, WTF), winning his maiden slam. He's actually expected to reach finals on regular basis. If Medvedev is on a great run (like now) he has a good chance to win a slam as well. We can't forget about other guys (Zverev and co) too. USO is wide open, at the AO even Novak can't feel safe anymore.
Clay: Nadal is still the man to beat, no doubts. The situation is not as open as on HC. It's hard to imagine Thiem not winning RG at some point though. Will it be next year? I would still favour Nadal but it can't be ruled out.
Grass: Here the situation for the mentioned guys is most complicated. They haven't achieved any significant result at Wimby so far while legends successfully dominate at this event (Djokovic 2-time defending champion, Nadal also strong in recent years, possibly resurgent Federer can also block younger guys).
#1 position: Djoko is heading towards 300 weeks at #1 but ranking situation is open in the long term. Thiem (being a contender on clay and HC) has a good chance of getting #1 at some point next year and to be the first to snap a gigantic 17 (!) years long streak of Big4. Medved is looking like a candidate for top3-top4 next year and unless he significantly improves his clay results #1 will be difficult to reach.
HC: on this surface we are closest to a tipping point, the change is happening already. Thiem reached finals of the biggest HC tournaments of 2020 (AO, USO, WTF), winning his maiden slam. He's actually expected to reach finals on regular basis. If Medvedev is on a great run (like now) he has a good chance to win a slam as well. We can't forget about other guys (Zverev and co) too. USO is wide open, at the AO even Novak can't feel safe anymore.
Clay: Nadal is still the man to beat, no doubts. The situation is not as open as on HC. It's hard to imagine Thiem not winning RG at some point though. Will it be next year? I would still favour Nadal but it can't be ruled out.
Grass: Here the situation for the mentioned guys is most complicated. They haven't achieved any significant result at Wimby so far while legends successfully dominate at this event (Djokovic 2-time defending champion, Nadal also strong in recent years, possibly resurgent Federer can also block younger guys).
#1 position: Djoko is heading towards 300 weeks at #1 but ranking situation is open in the long term. Thiem (being a contender on clay and HC) has a good chance of getting #1 at some point next year and to be the first to snap a gigantic 17 (!) years long streak of Big4. Medved is looking like a candidate for top3-top4 next year and unless he significantly improves his clay results #1 will be difficult to reach.