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LIVE DRAW

SERBIA
Lower Ranked Best Second

RUSSIA
Group E (CROATIA)

AUSTRALIA
UNITED KINGDOM

Higher Ranked Best Second
Group B (SPAIN)
 

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Discussion Starter #2
BELGIUM 2/1 6/3 12/10
CANADA 2/1 5/4 12/8
ITALY 2/1 5/4 11/9

Before Last Tie
JAPAN 2/0 5/1 10/3
AUSTRIA 1/1 3/3 8/7
SOUTH AFRICA 1/1 3/3 7/7
FRANCE 1/1 3/3 7/8

Scenarii from less probable to most probable

1) Japon wins a rubber vs Spain and qualify
2) South Africa or France wins all the rubbers vs. each other and qualify
3) Austria defeats Poland 3/0
4) None of the other happens BELGIUM (vs. SPAIN) and CANADA (vs. SERBIA) are in QF.
 

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unless something really weird happens or they throw a match spain should beat japan 3-0, thereby eliminating japan

rance to beat south africa 2-1 and austria to beat poland 3-0

meaning austria and belgium get the last 2 quarterfinal places
 

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unless something really weird happens or they throw a match spain should beat japan 3-0, thereby eliminating japan

rance to beat south africa 2-1 and austria to beat poland 3-0

meaning austria and belgium get the last 2 quarterfinal places
It's not likely but in the Austria 3-0 case Argentina could sweep Croatia which would put Austria 1st in the group, ARG and CRO both at 5-4 and Canada would be through.

This group is very complex though. There's a weird scenario in that group where if Austria loses, and Argentina beats Croatia 2-1, then Argentina wins the group and Croatia is 2nd at 6-3 and they advance that way. The only way Argentina can get in is by winning the group, would require winning and having Austria lose, or by winning 3-0, having Austria win 2-1 and winning the 3 way set percentage tiebreaker.

Any Argentina sweep of Croatia would eliminate Croatia unless Austria won 2-1 and Croatia got 1st on the 3 way set percentages tiebreaker. Croatia likely needs 1 win to clinch a spot.
 

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Canada requires Spain 3-0 win, FRA/RSA to end 2-1, and 1 of the following:

a) Argentina 3-0 win over Croatia
b) Argentina 2-1 and Austria 2-1
c) Croatia win and Austria loses a match
 

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Belgium has won 12 sets out of 22, that's 54.5%. I want France and Austria to reach QFs, because they have normal 2nd players and not Darcis who is clearly close to retirement.

So in my scenario France and Austria both should win 3-0, but that's not enough for France, because:
France has won 7 sets out of 15. So they can't lose more than 1 set if they want to qualify together with Austria.
Austria has won 8 out of 15. Austria can lose set in every match and they will still be in QFs.
 

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So for Canada to qualify they need Spain to win 3-0. France/South Africa to not be a sweep. And either a win in any way from Croatia or a sweep from Argentina. Argentina winning 2-1 is bad.
 

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So Austria lost both singles and is out. Even worse, Thiem is likely to lose his 4th rank to Medvedev, and Novak failed to secure a spot in the top 100 (although he might still get it). Both were huge favourites in their matches.
 

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Why would Argentina winning 2-1 be bad for Canada?
head to head is the first tiebreaker so any Argentina win gives Argentina the group. Argentina 2-1 specifically would put 2nd place Croatia at 6-3 which would eliminate Canada.

Any Croatia win then 2nd place in that group is 1-2 and clearly out. Argentina 3-0, even if all the matches went to 3 sets would see Croatia at a best case scenario of 2-1, 5-4, 13-10 and worse than Canada's 2-1, 5-4, 12-8. Argentina 2-1 eliminates Canada, anything else and Canada is better than the Group E 2nd place team
 

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head to head is the first tiebreaker so any Argentina win gives Argentina the group. Argentina 2-1 specifically would put 2nd place Croatia at 6-3 which would eliminate Canada.

Any Croatia win then 2nd place in that group is 1-2 and clearly out. Argentina 3-0, even if all the matches went to 3 sets would see Croatia at a best case scenario of 2-1, 5-4, 13-10 and worse than Canada's 2-1, 5-4, 12-8. Argentina 2-1 eliminates Canada, anything else and Canada is better than the Group E 2nd place team
Thanks
 

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By the way, Croatia needs only 1 winning match. So if Cilic wins they may relax, and Argentina can do it 2-1 and to win the group. Croatia in any case will go to Spain, Russia or Serbia - there is no good choice, so they don't really care which one.
 

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Well things are getting clearer.....

in Group E

AUSTRIA completely failed... Thiem loosing to Hurkacz and Novak to Zuk.

ARGENTINA can finish first if winning 3/0 and loosing only one set in all other cases CROATIA qualifies.

Second from Group E can not qualify.
 

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Group A

Weird move by SImon who decided to play against Harris and send Paire against Anderson.

Afraid it can open a door to South Africa 3/0 win.
 
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