It's much more interesting than that. Consider that all Russians are likely to be healthy. It means, that there is one certainty - Kafelnikov won't play singles - especially on clay. which most likely means that, comparing to Moscow tie, he will be very fresh for doubles.
True, I hadn't thought about that. But who will be his partner? Mikahil? Marat?
Besides, doubles on clay is his best. Better than singles. Better than doubles on any other surfaces. And to add to that, given that Youzhnyi played well with him against Czechs and the doubles combination can be declared as late as Saturday, Russia is likely to pair Kafelnikov with the fresher one from Safin and Youzhnyi(i.e. the one who had easier singles match ), who, as clay is the best surface for both of them, will surely play opening singles.
This answers my question from above. Of course you are making the assumption that one of them will have an "easy" singles match in order for the doubles team to be "fresh".
For what it's worth, I'll examine the head to heads.
Marat, as Russias top ranked player, is likely to play Gaudio on day one. Regardless, he's likely to play him at some point. Their head to head is tied at 2 a piece, ALL on clay. It's worth noting that these were played from 1999-2001. Thus, Marat's best period to date falls in that time range. Gaudio's doesn't (his best period to date would have been last year). For what it's worth, Gaudio won the two matches at bigger events.
1999-08-02 Amsterdam Clay R16 Marat Safin (RUS) 6-4 7-6(4)
2000-04-17 Monte Carlo Clay R64 Gaston Gaudio (ARG) 7-6(5) 6-0
2000-04-24 Barcelona Clay R16 Marat Safin (RUS) 6-4 4-6 6-4
2001-05-14 Hamburg Clay R32 Gaston Gaudio (ARG) 6-0 7-6(0)
Unfortunately we don't have a 5 set match between them, as that would be a far better guage.
Although I don't put *too* much stock into head to heads, I do believe it would be somewhat foolish to take Gaudio lightly. Surely Marat won't.
As for David - Marat totally owns the head to head. But one of the matches was rather close, notabley that match was on clay. Although I would pick Marat over David on clay at full health, I wouldn't pick a straight set "easy" match. David is much better than he was at Roland Garros.
2002-04-15 Monte Carlo Clay R16 Marat Safin (RUS) 6-1 6-7(5) 6-2
2002-05-27 Roland Garros Clay R32 Marat Safin (RUS) 6-3 6-3 3-6 6-4
2002-09-20 Davis Cup (WG-SF) ARG vs. RUS Indoor Carpet RR Marat Safin (RUS) 7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-0 6-3
2002-10-28 Paris Indoor Carpet R32 Marat Safin (RUS) 6-3 6-2
Versus Canas (who I suspect will be playing if he's healthy), Marat is trailing the head to head 1-2. He hasn't taken a set off Canas since 1999, when he won their first encounter. None of their matches were on clay, mind you.
1999-02-08 St. Petersburg Indoor Carpet R32 Marat Safin (RUS) 6-2 6-3
2001-08-06 Cincinnati Hardcourt R64 Guillermo Canas (ARG) 6-3 6-3
2002-07-29 Toronto Hardcourt QF Guillermo Canas (ARG) 7-5 6-3
Now Youzhny is the one with interesting head to heads vs these guys. He an Canas have played once - a 5 set encounter on clay, in the finals of Stuttgart - Mikhails first title. From 1-2 sets down.
He's never played David, but has played Gaudio twice. Gaudio and Mikhail are 1-1. It's worth noting that Gaudio won the clay match, and took Mikhail to 5 at Wimbledon.
2002-06-24 Wimbledon Grass R64 Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) 6-0 1-6 7-6(2) 5-7 6-4
2002-07-08 Gstaad Clay R16 Gaston Gaudio (ARG) 7-6(3) 6-4
I could go on and compare with Chela and Coria, but I've written enough already. That, and I don't think that they will get to play over Canas, Gaudio, or David. Unless of course, they kick some major butt from now until April.
In other words, Russia will have much fresher doubles team, and much fresher players on reverse singles days ( really, having good bench is really good ). It is likely that Davydenko,the latest hero, will sit out the whole tie, and probably will play a dead rubber, which will be played after Safin clinched the tie for Russia on the third day 3:1..
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You are assuming of course, that David will play doubles AND singles. I don't think that he will. If Canas is healthy, your looking at Canas and Gaudio on day one. David will likely play the doubles with Lucas, and if maybe play day 3.
I assume that David and Lucas will play again, going on the "if it ain't broke don't fix it" theory. Until they lose, why break them up? I do think that they should play together in a couple tournaments to warm up for this, but we'll see if that happens or not.
If my theory pans out, the Argentine pair NOT the Russian pair, will be the freshest.
Davydenko might be sitting out, but when you consider that Argentina will have top 30 players who didn't even make the bench, that doesn't sound so impressive
You also have to factor in that not only are the Russians playing Argentina. Not only are they playing Argentina on clay. They are playing Argentina IN Argentina. That is huge, and it will sway in favour of the Argentine squad. Gaudio has never lost a match at home.
If I was a betting woman, I'd say right now that it will be 3-2 Argentina, with Gaudio the hero
