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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
No matter what a draw is tennis fans will call it rigged if it doesn't suit their favorite.

Newsflash: Draws aren't made to suit your favorite. That would be the definition of rigged!

The latest example is Thiem not being in Djokovic's half at the FO for the first time in 5 years and you have ppl calling it rigged 🤦‍♂️

It literally had to be that way for draws not to be rigged!

I think tennis fans are the biggest conspiracy nuts in the world with the rare exception of Trump supporters.

Discuss.
 

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Mate, I am not a Covid Denier, or any other type of conspiracy theorist, but tennis draws often get analysed in that way.
This time, the Draw Gods have been kind to Nole, but that is a rare event!
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Mate, I am not a Covid Denier, or any other type of conspiracy theorist, but tennis draws often get analysed in that way.
This time, the Draw Gods have been kind to Nole, but that is a rare event!
I was thinking more in terms of ppl claiming draws are rigged in Djokovic's favor...
 

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Depends on who you consider to be tennis fans and on which group of fans you're focusing.

It's clear a lot of MTF people only look at stats when talking about tennis.
 

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People identifying themselves with particular player's achievements will always claim that when the outcome is not in theit favor. Those are, however, merely empty accusations with no proof whatsoever to support them. Check, for instance, Stan vs. Grigor R1 on few tournaments played in the same year, it's just a chance.
 

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I have it on good authority that QAnon is a member of the Federesian horde
 
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Some years ago someone run a statistical analysis of the US open draws, yelding a statistically significant bias in top players recieving below average early round opponents.

Given doping suspicions, weird matchups happening again and again, I don't think you can really fault tennis fans for not trusting ATP.

Personally, and this is not aimed in favor of or against any player, I have high doubts that draws generation is 100% random, especially in the biggest events. And not because of who knows what grand conspiracy: they simply try to maximise profit by having interesting matchups on display
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Some years ago someone run a statistical analysis of the US open draws, yelding a statistically significant bias in top players recieving below average early round opponents.

Given doping suspicions, weird matchups happening again and again, I don't think you can really fault tennis fans for not trusting ATP.

Personally, and this is not aimed in favor of or against any player, I have high doubts that draws generation is 100% random, especially in the biggest events. And not because of who knows what grand conspiracy: they simply try to maximise profit by having interesting matchups on display
This I happen to agree with. My problem is when ppl take it too far and say the draw is rigged when Thiem is in Nadal's half for the first time in 5 years. Ppl never know where to draw the line.
 
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You mean like the fans who witnessed a line judge getting hit by a ball in the throat, could not accept that simple reality, and proceeded to blame her for deliberately getting in the way of the ball for obscure, nefarious reasons?

Yeah, those guys are 100% dyed-in-the-wool conspiracy nuts, not to mention nasty victim-blaming creeps.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
You mean like the fans who witnessed a line judge getting hit by a ball in the throat, could not accept that simple reality, and proceeded to blame her for deliberately getting in the way of the ball for obscure, nefarious reasons?

Yeah, those guys are 100% dyed-in-the-wool conspiracy nuts, not to mention nasty victim-blaming creeps.
Yes that's what I mean.

Thank you for your contribution to this thread.
 

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It's sports as usual, deal with it.
 

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Bro I swear, I saw that lineswoman hit by Djokovic turned into a gay frog.

Funniest shit I've ever seen.
 

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Some years ago someone run a statistical analysis of the US open draws, yelding a statistically significant bias in top players recieving below average early round opponents.

Given doping suspicions, weird matchups happening again and again, I don't think you can really fault tennis fans for not trusting ATP.

Personally, and this is not aimed in favor of or against any player, I have high doubts that draws generation is 100% random, especially in the biggest events. And not because of who knows what grand conspiracy: they simply try to maximise profit by having interesting matchups on display

Very intelligent post! (y)

There are two extremes fans can go to:

1) Claim that the draws are always, always, always rigged whenever their favorite player doesn't get a draw that they were hoping for.

2) Claim that the draws are never, never, never rigged, and that anyone who would ever be suspicious of any draw in the history of tennis needs to check into the nearest mental hospital immediately. ;)

Your view, Maranza, avoids those two extremes. As you implied, it's healthy to be somewhat skeptical. And one can do that while still using lots of intelligence and reason. Whereas mechanical draws can be made reasonably transparent, electronic draws will invariably carry some aura of suspicion because of the secrecy involved.

What's kind of funny, though, is that one poster on here was ridiculing some of Djokovic's fans for thinking that the draw would be rigged against him in Paris, calling them "conspiracy theorists" (such a lazy, loaded term). And then when he saw that Djokovic got Medvedev instead, this poster then promptly claimed that the draw was rigged in favor of Djokovic. :ROFLMAO:

Can you say double standard?

I thought you could. ;)
 

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2) Claim that the draws are never, never, never rigged, and that anyone who would ever be suspicious of any draw in the history of tennis needs to check into the nearest mental hospital immediately. ;)
I don't think people should be checked into a mental institution, and I also think it's always good to be suspicious of the authority.

However, in this case if someone is going to make the extraordinary accusation that draws are fixed, they'd need some actual evidence to support this view.

Furthermore, I would suggest that crimes usually require a motive. In this case, there is just no reason whatsoever for the authorities to fix the draw, as they don't benefit in the slightest.
 

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However, in this case if someone is going to make the extraordinary accusation that draws are fixed, they'd need some actual evidence to support this view.

Good point. Of course, there's a difference between saying, "I know this draw is fixed" and "I suspect the draw could be fixed." I think tennis fans tend to say the latter more often. Yes, it's always better to offer some supporting evidence for one's views. The stronger the evidence you can present, the better your case. But of course, even if a draw is fixed, rarely is there going to be absolute proof.

The U.S. Open case that was analyzed by ESPN years ago, however, does have about as convincing evidence as you're ever going to find.


Furthermore, I would suggest that crimes usually require a motive. In this case, there is just no reason whatsoever for the authorities to fix the draw, as they don't benefit in the slightest.
Yes, it's helpful whenever someone can offer a plausible motive as well. As Maranza pointed out, trying to maximize profit by featuring interesting or popular matchups would likely be the most common scenario. As we all know, the top players almost always generate the most revenue.
 

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Awesome thread! Thank you for that.

I remember when I made a poll years ago about what people believe. I was beyond shocked how many actually believe draws are rigged!

It's such an utterly stupid thing to think. Do you really fucking think a tournament would take the risk to lose all credibility just to rig a draw? Come on. Use your brain, people!

I guess in the light of the vast amount of "it's rigged" nutcases here it comes as no surprise that so many have a hard time accepting that there is a pandemic raging around the world, and instead go for absolute stupid conspiracy theories about the virus. So very, very sad to see.
 
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Some years ago someone run a statistical analysis of the US open draws, yelding a statistically significant bias in top players recieving below average early round opponents.

Given doping suspicions, weird matchups happening again and again, I don't think you can really fault tennis fans for not trusting ATP.

Personally, and this is not aimed in favor of or against any player, I have high doubts that draws generation is 100% random, especially in the biggest events. And not because of who knows what grand conspiracy: they simply try to maximise profit by having interesting matchups on display
Show me that "statistical analyis". I will gladly tear it apart piece by piece for you.
 

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Show me that "statistical analyis". I will gladly tear it apart piece by piece for you.

It's been posted so many times on this forum it's hard to keep track of. ;)


Good luck with tearing it apart. :) Even after almost 10 years, I don't think anyone's ever offered any convincing arguments to refute its conclusions.
 

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It's such an utterly stupid thing to think. Do you really fucking think a tournament would take the risk to lose all credibility just to rig a draw? Come on. Use your brain, people!
Still, there are 0 ways to prove if it's rigged or not. Same with lottery, everyone knows it's rigged but you can't prove it.
 
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