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Surely, but I don't think this is the case in most places (with some exceptions of course). Here in Germany for instance people/politicians/media have been whining about the ominous second wave for several weeks now becaue of a rise in cases, even though there is absolutely no rise in hospitalizations and the positivity rate is almost consistently below 1 % (as you probably know 5 % stated as critical by the WHO). It's pretty obvious that the rise in cases is almost solely a result of increased testing (from 400,000 tests to over 1,000,000 IIRC) and it annoys me how certain politicians say that it's impossble to deny there's a second wave (in Germany) because it's just plain wrong.
As previously said, the test is fine, but the people making decisions on the basis of "cases" or reporting them as an absolute number without understanding it are not.
in France though the rise in cases is NOT just a result of increased testing. Hospitalisation and deaths are increasing. They just reported 154 deaths in a day. and about 13,000 cases. Given the deaths are mostly people who got it about 3 weeks ago and cases are now double what they were then expect the deaths to continue at 3 digits for a while.
 

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in France though the rise in cases is NOT just a result of increased testing. Hospitalisation and deaths are increasing. They just reported 154 deaths in a day. and about 13,000 cases. Given the deaths are mostly people who got it about 3 weeks ago and cases are now double what they were then expect the deaths to continue at 3 digits for a while.
Has the positive test rate been increasing?
Yes, that's why I posted this some days ago (it's a couple of days old but situation hasn't changed much since then).

 
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no. This is so frustrating. Ive seen people saying this stuff for weeks now. I don’t mean to be rude but you’re talkin BS. Stop it. you’re completely misinterpreting the data. Cases are only higher now because now there is actual testing capacity for mild cases and people who have simply been exposed. The real number of cases in the first wave would have been much, much higher but most people weren’t being tested. So yeh it’s not as bad now, but you cant compare confirmed cases from then with now because the testing capacity and criteria were completely different.

The case to death ratio is only so different now in countries like France that had a lack of testing capacity during the first wave. If you look at other countries that have had adequate consistent testing capacity since the beginning the case-to-death ratio has been more or less going consistently as you would expect. In the first wave in France the number of infected would have much, much higher than what we knew because back then only bad cases of covid were being tested.

Also, the average time to death is actually closer to 3 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next few weeks France will have deaths at least over 100 per day. Treatment has improved so that helps, and early diagnosis too. But it’s not only about deaths anyway, it can have other effects on the body that are longer lasting and hidden in some cases until later.

so while this wave is not as bad as the first wave... it’s not exactly something to take lightly if the cases keep going up and up. That’s when things can get out of hand
But if this is the case then the case numbers are simply not comparable to the previous case numbers, and the current "peak" isn't anywhere near the previous one. The only relevant number is the deaths number - which is way, way lower. And 100 deaths a day - still not that bad. 1700 people die a day in France in normal times.
 

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This overhyped virus so the rich gets richer. How many of this COVID deaths are really due to covid? Time to get on with our lives.
 

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Record increase of 13,000 cases in France yesterday.

Definitely not good.
And yet for months, for months RG Tournament Director Guy Forget has dismissed, flat out dismissed the threat from COVID-19. The guy is NUTS totally crazy wanting to let Fans on the Site.

Meanwhile Steph Myles is reporting apparently 3 positive COVID-19 Tests among 2 Players and a Coach who are supposed to play Qualies next week BUT of course France wants Spectators.


What the heck is wrong with these people from the FTT?
 

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But if this is the case then the case numbers are simply not comparable to the previous case numbers, and the current "peak" isn't anywhere near the previous one. The only relevant number is the deaths number - which is way, way lower. And 100 deaths a day - still not that bad. 1700 people die a day in France in normal times.
@educasian made a very valid point in what @mistercrabs responded to here. There truly is a problem with how grand majority of the people who look at the data and their graphs are not told or simply forget that somewhere in the middle of the graph the environment of the source of the data has changed. It's a much know phenomenon in data collecting and analyzing that once you're collecting data and the source or the description of the data starts changing, or when there's more data collected due to changing how data is collected, then if you keep presenting the data as if you're still showing the exact same stuff, you're misleading those that think they understand the data/graphs and have to make decisions based on it. The data isn't wrong, because it's (presumably) factually correct (number of positive cases divided by total number of tests ran), we just have to make sure we understand that some of the changes in the numbers need an explanation on why the line somewhere along it started diverting from counting all the red apples of a specific brand to kinds of red apples and we're drifting towards counting all apples of all colors and shapes (I'm purposely not making the apples and oranges analogy, because it's still all apples).

Over here in the Netherlands, I think the increase of positive cases can't all be the 'more testing' phenomenon, testing capacity hasn't strongly increased in the past 10 weeks, testing criteria are (reportedly) unchanged, the use of that capacity has increased to maximum use, all that showing a spike in the infection rate.

But that's all diverting from the original topic, (besides, the Netherlands isn't France), watching the crowds on the side of the roads in Le Tour de France is plenty enough reason to expect more spiking of infections in France. We as human beings apparently are unable to obey the distancing instructions. Football stadiums are getting filled up again. All this 'back to normal' behavior will not help undo the increase of infections, we just don't know whether it's <1% increase or >10% increase. So, I suppose having Roland Garros with (big) crowds can only work if discipline is shown. I see it everywhere from afar and around me, even find myself "one little exception" here or there. Right now, we're clearly not ready for big crowds.
 

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Much the same happened in the UK. The Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, admitted that lockdown was too late to be responsible for the falling numbers. Since then we have had various regional "lockdowns" based on little except for new "cases" detected by a test which could have a large number of false positives. It's a shitshow of the first order but the natives are getting restless. There was about 30,000 demonstrating against the measures last month and those numbers will probably be exceeded by the demo planned for next Saturday.
Every time I see what's going on in Britain I somehow feel like our government maybe isn't that incompetent anymore. :lol:

But the entire response to the Virus is just so incredibly irrational, I seriously wonder how this period is going to be perceived in the future. People are probably going to laugh at this. At least we can come back to these threads in the future and gloat about how well our posts have aged then, lol. I mean how do people expect a suppression (at increadibly high cost) even if it is succesful short-term to be succesful on the long run? I simply cannot see this. Even in case you manage to keep the numbers down until a vaccine arrives (which aready is more wishful thinking than everything else IMO), do people expect a vaccine to all of a sudden end COVID altogether and turn the world into ponyland? Even in case you manage to get an approval out in 2021, this is going to be everything else than the reincarnation of the measles vaccine efficiency-wise (leaving the safety concern aside here for once).

The Virus will continue to exist and will probably continue circulating forever. I would recommend people to simply accept this and stop melting down with every announced infection or even whenever they see people closely together, because otherwise they might end up as disappointed as the Nazis in '45 after their "Wunderwaffe" failed to appear in time.
 
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Remember guys this virus is very picky on who and how it targets. More than 6 of you, then good luck surviving, less than 6 you are perfectly safe. It only comes out after 10pm in the UK from next week, so before that time we should all be fine. If you do go out after 10pm, I can only imagine the horror of tripping over dead bodies left right and centre. It you protest against it, you are not safe but if you want to do a BLM protest the virus is very sympathetic to your cause and will leave you alone. Police officers are also immune.

Here in the UK people are finally waking up to this bullshit. No conspiracy theory it's called common sense and intelligence. I wish it were the same in other countries. There are real illnesses out there like cancer not this nonsense.
 

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I know it sounds really icy but at some point with far less money and far more unemployment, if people are asked do you prefer loosing your job or your grandfather answer may be surprising.
This implies that only young people matter right? Because only young people have grandfathers you see. What about say 45 year olds, or 55? You don't care to mention what their answer would be, i.e whether they'd like to lose heir parents, or even their own lives, those people are also in non-negligible danger you know. So apparently for you all that matters is young people, that they have their jobs and be able to watch tennis. You're something...
 

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And only 26 deaths.
153 the day before. also these deaths are mostly of people who were infected 3 weeks ago. The hospitalisations have increased as well as those in ICUs. It's only going to continue and it doesn't seem even to have peaked yet. Are people supposed to be content to just let it keep increasing and increasing? I have some sympathy for people who went through lockdown and don't want to go back to that. but at the same time it seems government/society is utterly failing in virus containment. It is possible to keep the country relatively open while containing the virus. It's been done in some places. I don't know why they don't put more effort into quarantine and tracing.

Anyway I hope that the French Open can go smoothly but it makes me worried as qualies are about to start and already two players and a coach tested positive. I believe one of the players is Denis Istomin. It's up to the people there at the end of the day how this goes. not sure it's really sensible though having 5000 people in attendance. it's nice to have some people there but it still seems pretty risky, mainly for the health of the players and success of the tournament. People will get pretty upset i think if some top players have to pull out.
 

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I wonder what the Macron administration has to say about RG being held soon, Macron is obviously the pro business leader and representative of free markets and will prioritize all the money involved above anything else but he wants to be reelected at some point too.
 

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Again, I am not proposing that we lock everyone down! Nobody is proposing that. Why is your mind only capable of dealing with polar extremes?
You my friend have touched on THE MAIN PROBLEM of humans. They so often are only willing to see black or white, 0% or 100%. Anything like 35% or 60% apparently seems too complicated and out of their processing power reach. I've said it many many times since the pandemic started, Covid19 has proven to be the ultimate IQ (and ego, a related quality) test. It's a complex problem and just shows most people up for not being able to handle it properly. Too many parameters and unknowns...So what do people do? Look to politicizing it (see polarizing, only keeping the quotes that fit their bias), look for conspiracy theories, say it's a hoax, etc. Basically anything to make the complex problem simple again....The smarter (and/or less lazy) people are trying to read, take as such as possible into consideration and even make calculations in their heads involving 35% and 60%, instead all or nothing. They then check them later for validation and try to improve their next efforts, acknowledging their previous mistakes. The less smart/lazy take the "easy", oversimplifying route, it's all or nothing, Trump vs the left, etc...

It's the same with climate change. Again a very complicated problem (even more so in fact). And what do people do? Politicize it...they say "I don't believe it's that serious". Note the "I". People think a lot about their abilities nowadays. Those people cannot even begin to fathom how complex this is, yet they feel confident enough to dismiss it as not that serious, or not man driven, or that it would happen anyway, blah, blah, blah. It's the easy and selfish way out.
 

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You my friend have touched on THE MAIN PROBLEM of humans. They so often are only willing to see black or white, 0% or 100%. Anything like 35% or 60% apparently seems too complicated and out of their processing power reach. I've said it many many times since the pandemic started, Covid19 has proven to be the ultimate IQ (and ego, a related quality) test. It's a complex problem and just shows most people up for not being able to handle it properly. Too many parameters and unknowns...So what do people do? Look to politicizing it (see polarizing, only keeping the quotes that fit their bias), look for conspiracy theories, say it's a hoax, etc. Basically anything to make the complex problem simple again....The smarter (and/or less lazy) people are trying to read, take as such as possible into consideration and even make calculations in their heads involving 35% and 60%, instead all or nothing. They then check them later for validation and try to improve their next efforts, acknowledging their previous mistakes. The less smart/lazy take the "easy", oversimplifying route, it's all or nothing, Trump vs the left, etc...

It's the same with climate change. Again a very complicated problem (even more so in fact). And what do people do? Politicize it...they say "I don't believe it's that serious". Note the "I". People think a lot about their abilities nowadays. Those people cannot even begin to fathom how complex this is, yet they feel confident enough to dismiss it as not that serious, or not man driven, or that it would happen anyway, blah, blah, blah. It's the easy and selfish way out.
Sounds like you are in the "100%" category on that issue as you didn't bother to mention the people that tend to act like the world is ending tomorrow because of climate change. As to Covid I haven't really seen many if any suggesting that it is fake or a complete non factor. Only that it isn't as bad as it is getting reported to be and that opinion isn't just someone taking a guess for themselves, but from hearing empirical evidence from news sources and scientists that make that claim. Of course those sources could be politically corrupted in a similar way that the sources that treat it like Ebola likely are.
 

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This implies that only young people matter right? Because only young people have grandfathers you see. What about say 45 year olds, or 55? You don't care to mention what their answer would be, i.e whether they'd like to lose heir parents, or even their own lives, those people are also in non-negligible danger you know. So apparently for you all that matters is young people, that they have their jobs and be able to watch tennis. You're something...
Please I am 50 so I do not think only young people matters.
"Grandfather" was just a world to embody elderly people.

I am 50 but I guess I am happy with the life I lived and if I have to die today I am ok with it even I am pretty sure I can live other wonderfull things, death is part of life.
I imagine it should be the right attitude of every 50+ people.

I know I am part of a very favoured post world war II generation (later boomer but boomer) that has had a life without too much of problems (apart aids and a couple of financial crashes).

That said what bothers me is that young people do not have the same freedom and same opportunities that we had at their age, life is far more tough, finding jobs is far more hard (I mean interesting jobs in Western Word where I live) and now even travelling and gathering will be forbidden.

And I am not speaking about just my son because we are bloody rich so he has privilege but about all the others I saw around.
 
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