Mens Tennis Forums banner

121 - 140 of 208 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,283 Posts
Everyday, the public transport is packed in Paris. Life is going on as usual except for having to compulsorily wear masks in the public. Will they stop that too????? No, so there is no point in not having a controlled number of spectators
Yes, they probably will stop that too, once the spread of the disease gets out of control and the death figures start to climb sharply.

But by then the FFT will have made its money, and it won't give a shit whether the FO has contributed to the spread of the disease or not.

Take the money and run.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,381 Posts
Only solution: We need somebody who has experience with both, Ebola and COVID to get us out of this misery ASAP.

 
Sweden's model isn't containable for other countries, because most of people there live alone, so R coefficient automatically will be low there.
Despite that almost 6000 deaths is quite a bad result for such country, especially if we compare it to other Scandinavian countries.

Denmark and Norway coped with this virus much better.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,310 Posts
Sweden's model isn't containable for other countries, because most of people there live alone, so R coefficient automatically will be low there.
Despite that almost 6000 deaths is quite a bad result for such country, especially if we compare it to other Scandinavian countries.

Denmark and Norway coped with this virus much better.
I don't like the comparison of Sweden with its neighbors, I believe the Virus was already spread far more widely in Sweden than in the rest of Scandinavia before any measures were/would have been implemented. Overlayed the Swedish curve with the Finnish one some time ago by shifting the deaths something like 3 weeks forward, the difference even at the beginning of March was immense. Think even with the policy of Denmark/Norway/Finland the deaths in Sweden would have still been much higher than there (something around 3,000 or 4,000 I'd say).

But yeah, obviously true that Sweden's not necessarily the best model system for the rest of the world (although it kind of was the only country disproving the outlandish modelling regarding deaths/hospital capacities a couple of months ago). Right now I think the sunbelt of the US is best thing we have to compare strategies and outcomes. Still like to cite Sweden because my view on the pandemic is pretty much in line with what Giesecke's said and they adopted a long-term approach I support from the beginning without panicking.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,381 Posts
I don't like the comparison of Sweden with its neighbors, I believe the Virus was already spread far more widely in Sweden than in the rest of Scandinavia before any measures were/would have been implemented. Overlayed the Swedish curve with the Finnish one some time ago by shifting the deaths something like 3 weeks forward, the difference even at the beginning of March was immense. Think even with the policy of Denmark/Norway/Finland the deaths in Sweden would have still been much higher than there (something around 3,000 or 4,000 I'd say).

But yeah, obviously true that Sweden's not necessarily the best model system for the rest of the world (although it kind of was the only country disproving the outlandish modelling regarding deaths/hospital capacities a couple of months ago). Right now I think the sunbelt of the US is best thing we have to compare strategies and outcomes. Still like to cite Sweden because my view on the pandemic is pretty much in line with what Giesecke's said and they adopted a long-term approach I support from the beginning without panicking.
I understand what you are saying. Sweden has amazing healthcare, easily one of the best in the world and the fact that it was not overloaded tells a lot about it. Still think that they could have done much better job in nursing homes, that's their biggest failure.

Denmark's model was quite good for me. 1 month lockdown, meanwhile increase testing capacities in that time + train your medical personnel. With massive testing you can definitely control the spread of Covid. There was a testing shortage in March/April so when positivity rate reaches 50% everyone is panicking, therefore you can't do anything but lockdown. Biggest problem in world is that leaders don't have consistent messaging, so people don't understand what to do.

All in all, for me early lockdowns are still justified, because we didn't have enough info, testing capabilities and in some countries not enough hospital beds. Now even if cases rise, most of countries will be much better prepared and as we see they are.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
492 Posts
I understand what you are saying. Sweden has amazing healthcare, easily one of the best in the world and the fact that it was overloaded tells a lot about it. Still think that they could have done much better job in nursing homes, that's their biggest failure.

Denmark's model was quite good for me. 1 month lockdown, meanwhile increase testing capacities in that time + train your medical personnel. With massive testing you can definitely control the spread of Covid. There was a testing shortage in March/April so when positivity rate reaches 50% everyone is panicking, therefore you can't do anything but lockdown. Biggest problem in world is that leaders don't have consistent messaging, so people don't understand what to do.

All in all, for me early lockdowns are still justified, because we didn't have enough info, testing capabilities and in some countries not enough hospital beds. Now even if cases rise, most of countries will be much better prepared and as we see they are.
I don't have the figures to hand but I'm fairly certain the Swedish healthcare system was never "overloaded". Do you have anything to support this assertion?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,381 Posts
I don't have the figures to hand but I'm fairly certain the Swedish healthcare system was never "overloaded". Do you have anything to support this assertion?
Wanted to say not overloaded, typo there.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,988 Posts
Only solution: We need somebody who has experience with both, Ebola and COVID to get us out of this misery ASAP.

 
USofA already has such a person

 

Anyway, you're dealing with a country deep in civil strife - presume neither of these doctors has the cure

Today, few civil wars involve pitched battles from trenches along neat geographic front lines. Many are low-intensity conflicts with episodic violence in constantly moving locales. Mines’s definition of a civil war is large-scale violence that includes a rejection of traditional political authority and requires the National Guard to deal with it. On Saturday, McAuliffe put the National Guard on alert and declared a state of emergency.
Based on his experience in civil wars on three continents, Mines cited five conditions that support his prediction: entrenched national polarization, with no obvious meeting place for resolution; increasingly divisive press coverage and information flows; weakened institutions, notably Congress and the judiciary; a sellout or abandonment of responsibility by political leadership; and the legitimization of violence as the “in” way to either conduct discourse or solve disputes.
President Trump “modeled violence as a way to advance politically and validated bullying during and after the campaign,” Mines wrote in Foreign Policy. “Judging from recent events the left is now fully on board with this,” he continued, citing anarchists in anti-globalization riots as one of several flashpoints. “It is like 1859, everyone is mad about something and everyone has a gun.”
Before Charlottesville, David Blight, a Yale historian, was already planning a conference in November on “American Disunion, Then and Now.” “Parallels and analogies are always risky, but we do have weakened institutions and not just polarized parties but parties that are risking disintegration, which is what happened in the eighteen-fifties,” he told me. “Slavery tore apart, over fifteen years, both major political parties. It destroyed the Whig Party, which was replaced by the Republican Party, and divided the Democratic Party into northern and southern parts.”

“So,” he said, “watch the parties” as an indicator of America’s health.
Eric Foner, the Columbia University historian, won the Pulitzer Prize, in 2011, for his book “The Fiery Trial: Abraham Lincoln and American Slavery.” Like the other scholars I spoke to, Foner is skeptical that any future conflict will resemble America’s last civil war. “Obviously, we have some pretty deep divisions along multiple lines—racial, ideological, rural versus urban,” he told me. “Whether they will lead to civil war, I doubt. We have strong gravitational forces that counteract what we’re seeing today.” He pointed out that “the spark in Charlottesville—taking down a statue of Robert E. Lee—doesn’t have to do with civil war. People are not debating the Civil War. They’re debating American society and race today.”
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
395 Posts
Yes, they probably will stop that too, once the spread of the disease gets out of control and the death figures start to climb sharply.

But by then the FFT will have made its money, and it won't give a shit whether the FO has contributed to the spread of the disease or not.

Take the money and run.
No, the French PM has stated clearly that there won't be any further national level lockdown. There is no country on the globe that can afford a lockdown anymore. Why do you think India is lifting all of its lockdown measures inspite of clocking a hundred thousand cases daily? It is the same with every other affected country. This is the truth.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,310 Posts
I understand what you are saying. Sweden has amazing healthcare, easily one of the best in the world and the fact that it was not overloaded tells a lot about it. Still think that they could have done much better job in nursing homes, that's their biggest failure.

Denmark's model was quite good for me. 1 month lockdown, meanwhile increase testing capacities in that time + train your medical personnel. With massive testing you can definitely control the spread of Covid. There was a testing shortage in March/April so when positivity rate reaches 50% everyone is panicking, therefore you can't do anything but lockdown. Biggest problem in world is that leaders don't have consistent messaging, so people don't understand what to do.

All in all, for me early lockdowns are still justified, because we didn't have enough info, testing capabilities and in some countries not enough hospital beds. Now even if cases rise, most of countries will be much better prepared and as we see they are.
There we can argue whether the lockdowns gain outweights the costs, also dependent on whether there will be a wave later. I believe there will be one in winter, but we will see how this will unfold anyway in a couple of months so we can just wait. Also, every (succesful) containment strategy basically needs an effective treatment in the near future to "confirm" its previous success and I don't believe in such a thing.

IMO shutting everything down was more of a panic move of politicians that were worried about overloaded hospitals, exponential growth, hundreds of thousands of deaths (speaking of Germany) and so on because they took false assumptions as reality (20 % hospitalization rate; 6 % ICU rate and possibly even the CFR as IFR). I believe lockdowns (i.e. closing schools/businesses) did more harm than good from the beginning but I don't fault anyone for implementing them first as the situation was probably rather unclear (can't say anything about it because I didn't really bother back then).
However, (at least for Germany) it was pretty clear after 2 weeks that shutting everything down was not necessary to achieve that (the numbers had already been falling before the "lockdown" was implemented) and politicians are responsible for prolonging their measures for additional 5 weeks stating increasingly absurd reasons and doing much more damage than necessary. Unfortunately the media fear-porn had already been launched so bascially there was/is no way back now...
 
  • Like
Reactions: InfoKenway

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,310 Posts
No, the French PM has stated clearly that there won't be any further national level lockdown. There is no country on the globe that can afford a lockdown anymore. Why do you think India is lifting all of its lockdown measures inspite of clocking a hundred thousand cases daily? It is the same with every other affected country. This is the truth.
He could use the Boris Johnson-methode of just putting every region under a local lockdown. I wouldn't recommend that though.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chicot

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,283 Posts
No, the French PM has stated clearly that there won't be any further national level lockdown. There is no country on the globe that can afford a lockdown anymore. Why do you think India is lifting all of its lockdown measures inspite of clocking a hundred thousand cases daily? It is the same with every other affected country. This is the truth.
Lol, since when did people lay so much store in the official, provisional pronouncements of politicians?

There will be a partial, local lockdown when the death rates climb. It's got literally nothing to do what people resolve to do.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
492 Posts
There we can argue whether the lockdowns gain outweights the costs, also dependent on whether there will be a wave later. I believe there will be one in winter, but we will see how this will unfold anyway in a couple of months so we can just wait. Also, every (succesful) containment strategy basically needs an effective treatment in the near future to "confirm" its previous success and I don't believe in such a thing.

IMO shutting everything down was more of a panic move of politicians that were worried about overloaded hospitals, exponential growth, hundreds of thousands of deaths (speaking of Germany) and so on because they took false assumptions as reality (20 % hospitalization rate; 6 % ICU rate and possibly even the CFR as IFR). I believe lockdowns (i.e. closing schools/businesses) did more harm than good from the beginning but I don't fault anyone for implementing them first as the situation was probably rather unclear (can't say anything about it because I didn't really bother back then).
However, (at least for Germany) it was pretty clear after 2 weeks that shutting everything down was not necessary to achieve that (the numbers had already been falling before the "lockdown" was implemented) and politicians are responsible for prolonging their measures for additional 5 weeks stating increasingly absurd reasons and doing much more damage than necessary. Unfortunately the media fear-porn had already been launched so bascially there was/is no way back now...
Much the same happened in the UK. The Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, admitted that lockdown was too late to be responsible for the falling numbers. Since then we have had various regional "lockdowns" based on little except for new "cases" detected by a test which could have a large number of false positives. It's a shitshow of the first order but the natives are getting restless. There was about 30,000 demonstrating against the measures last month and those numbers will probably be exceeded by the demo planned for next Saturday.
 

·
justice for all
Joined
·
15,151 Posts
Well, on the plus side, at least they added the 28 days requirement. Before everyone who ever tested positive would eventually be counted as a Covid death, even Boris.
Becker is positive? He wasn't even at Djokovic's party...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,372 Posts
So what will happen to those players and fans who were virtue signalling before about people not taking covid seriously eg. those against Adria tour and US Open? Will these players participate in RG? Will these fans boycott RG and mock players in RG even if their idols are playing? Will they be quiet and become hypocrites?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
560 Posts
No, the French PM has stated clearly that there won't be any further national level lockdown. There is no country on the globe that can afford a lockdown anymore. Why do you think India is lifting all of its lockdown measures inspite of clocking a hundred thousand cases daily? It is the same with every other affected country. This is the truth.
What did the Governments expect would happen after a lockdown? They shut the world down and it seems they are surprised by the consequences of it
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,243 Posts
I agree with those above that case numbers are not as important as they were at the start. Where I live, anybody can get a test at anytime now. Of course, the case numbers are going to go up as a result. But even so, we still haven't had as many as the peak period. I think the shutdowns were beneficial in the beginning to avoid overwhelming the emergency departments and ICU's (indeed, the hospitals were so quiet that many of my nursing friends had to take vacation time) - and to work on treatments. I've read that many severe cases have been successfully treated with cheap generic drugs such as corticosteroids, which is very good news. But another shutdown would be disastrous. I think we would see a complete economic collapse and breakdown of society if things were to shutdown again. The virus is here to stay for the time being - and we need to learn to live with it. Most people are recovering, and there are effective treatments for some severe cases. It will either run its course (like previous pandemics) and/or there will be a vaccine. Of course, more drastic actions could have been taken in the beginning but we can't go back in time. It's kind of like "the boy who cried wolf" - SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, ebola, etc didn't do much to us in the West, so we didn't think this one would either.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,001 Posts
Cofirmed cases yesterday in France: 13'215 (all time high)
Confirmed deaths: 153 (highest since May 17th)

Lockdown incoming?
 
121 - 140 of 208 Posts
Top