Decided I'm going to go back to posting a little bit in here, although I won't be staking / analysing the matches like last year...no point bothering if no-one else does.
Had a slow start to '08, although not on the scale of last year. I can relate to a good observation made by desigundah in yesterday's thread...the underdogs (men) don't seem to be barking in this year's AO. Been breaking even since Monday, and I've had to adjust my strategy accordingly. Highest odds winner has been just 2.00 (Querrey over Rochus), and the only real success I've had has been in handicaps...something I rarely touch. Best-of-3 format couldn't come soon enough as far as I'm concerned! :lol:
Anyway, the two I've taken for tonight (with main reasoning) are:
Cilic over Gonzalez @ 3.70 - Cilic not only in finest form, but also wins over Gulbis, Haase and Dropshot Dlouhy, within the last year, seem to suggest that he can hang with the big-hitting "loose cannon" style. Some good serving from the powerful 19-year old should ensure that, at the very least, he keeps the match close.
Blake (over Grosjean) x Berdych (over Monaco) @ 1.70 - a MUG double if ever there was one (especially considering their respect mental strength ), but Grosjean doesn't have the best track record against big-hitting "loose cannon" style (e.g. Tursunov, Garcia-Lopez), while Monaco does seem to struggle against the more powerful players (e.g. Gonzalez, Haas, Querrey). Both matches may be ugly, but I expect both guys to pull through.
For the two that pissed me off (and vice versa) last year, you should now be able to block me. Hope everyone else has been enjoying the AO.
Hewitt over Baghdatis 11/10- Both at their best hewitt wins, so value is with the aussie.
Nalbandian over Ferrero 4/7- Gonna place my bet at a retirement bookie which voids matches if injury just incase bandys back is not better, if fit he should beat ferrero.
Wozniaki over Liski 4/9- Dangerous match to bet on but the dutchwomen has been more impressive in what i have seen of their matches so far.
Gonzalez over Cillic 2/5- I can compare fena to mauresmo at the momment, much better player than cillic/delleqau but because of his/her wild creative style of play he/she can make mistakes in rallies very often at crucial stages of matches because of low confidence, so you can say why havent i backed cillic then, i dont know to be honest, something is telling me gonzo will win.
Birdman over Monaco 2/5- Juan has had a good tournie but like last weeks epic with llodra he is bound to be feeling the strain, worst of all he is up against a fresh and dangerous birdman, i wouldnt rule out a monaco win here because juan has more confidence, better mentality and fight than birdman but tomas simply has a better game for this surface and really should win.
Agree with JMG about Baggy...the match is more on his terms, and I think it will need a combination of a very in-form Hewitt (yet to demonstrate this in 2008, so I have read), and a bit of a let-down from the Cypriot, for the match to go the Aussie's way. Want to do more trading this year, so I'll start by having a go with this one. Would trade Cilic, but for the unsociable hours.
I think Berdych will be too much for Monaco to handle,Pico is not playing that well at this AO,had big problems with Delic.Djoko,judging on his current form definitely shouldnt lose a set to a limited player like Sammy boy :lol: and Nalby,well,I just think he is the better player right now,dont know what to say about that match,should be a cracker.
I would like to see Séb' beat James but it will be very difficult. Frenchman is not serving so well.
Value for me is Baggy who was impressive against Marat : he showed his old level (when he was runner-up) and has enough power to beat Hewitt who seems struggling.
I was hoping that Rusty showed something new since he worked with Roche but this is the same "shitty" Lleyton than 2007.
Members who watched Baghdatis - Safin will understand.
-Seb +6,5 @2 -High quality tennis with his new coach since Lyon 2007-
-Cilic +4,5 @2,09 -He reminds me Baggys run in 2005
-Baggy @1,7 -Hes playing as he was against Nadal in Paris where he lost by playing a wonderfull tennis.No way Lipton will get this level-