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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
My preview for Round 18 ..

Friday night at TD: WD X St. kilda .. I expected something around pk em .9th/10th ladder both with 93-94%. found out that st. klida is -21.5 favorite
On form St.kilda won 5 of last 6 .. WB lost 3 last 5 including 2 big loses against Cats/ WCE
St. Kilda always have the wood over WB , Last time: St Kilda 17.14 (116) d Western Bulldogs 9.12 (66), round three, 2007, at Telstra Dome , also won easily last year .
Good for Overs backers

Carlton X Collingwood.
Kouta retires . Ratten job seems almost certain after Voss decided not to coach in 2008
It came to my attention that draft rules allows any team to get first draft pick if in 2 successive seasons wins only 8 games . even if they don’t finish last . Carlton already has 4 last year and 4 this year. They don’t need more. but +31.5 against Pies ..they can do the same like last week .. let the pies lead and then “fight” ;) and fall short ( no tanking here)

Geelong X Richmond .. I have never seen -51.5 .. seen lots of -48.5 ..this a joke 1.02 versus 13 in AFL .

Brisbane X Kangaroos .2 top form . Lions won 4 of 4 Kangaroos 5 of 5 . both back from good wins last week. Could have been more like pk em . considering kangaroos are 2nd , lions are 11th..
Kangaroos +6.5

Adelaide X Port . on form and in/outs (I consider Mark Ricciuto (ankle) – test , Ben Rutten (knee) – test still out)
Port scored over 100 last 5 games
Port -10.5

Melbourne X Sydney @ Manuka oval. Low scoring game in Canbarra .. Melbourne +41.5

Hawthorn X Essendon.. Odds about right . can’t make up my mind

WCE X Freo . are WCE back to their best ? we will find out . Freo lost Aaron Sandilands for the season.. tough assignment , but always nice to watch
 

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My preview for Round 18 ..

Friday night at TD: WD X St. kilda .. I expected something around pk em .9th/10th ladder both with 93-94%. found out that st. klida is -21.5 favorite
On form St.kilda won 5 of last 6 .. WB lost 3 last 5 including 2 big loses against Cats/ WCE
St. Kilda always have the wood over WB , Last time: St Kilda 17.14 (116) d Western Bulldogs 9.12 (66), round three, 2007, at Telstra Dome , also won easily last year .
Good for Overs backers
Let me get this right, you thought this game would be a PK ?



Geelong X Richmond .. I have never seen -51.5 .. seen lots of -48.5 ..this a joke 1.02 versus 13 in AFL .
If u think the line is that much of a joke surely u would bet it ?

Regardless goodluck with your plays!

I think my days of posting any AFL plays are over, as I'm getting good results betting seconds before bounce off.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Let me get this right, you thought this game would be a PK ?
i expected anyhing from 1.65-1.8 versus 2.3-2.1 , but i didn't expect 1.3 versus 3.8 . i am not saying st. kilda won't win , they most probably will based on form last few weeks but they shouldn't be that much of a favorite
the wb are that long because they were only trashed by the best 2 teams (cats and a full WCE)

If u think the line is that much of a joke surely u would bet it ?
do you remember anyone being $13 to win in AFL?

I think my days of posting any AFL plays are over, as I'm getting good results betting seconds before bounce off.
%100 right
last week Scott west was late withdraw . Also Sam Mitchell and Lance Franklin were late withdraw
 

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Will Brisbane Make Final 8 (After Rnd 22)

Yes - 3.20
N0 - 1.40

Yes, yes, yes. This represents value. Brisbane have been on fire in there last 5 games. I'll have some of that.
 

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Good bet. It can only get better once we get Chris Johnson back in that forward line within the next few weeks and perhaps Mitchell Clark on top of that.
 

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Just some futures bets.

Sydney to reach the Grand Final @ $4.50

Sydney and West Coast Quinella @ $9

This weekend

Highest scoring team - Geelong @ $3.30

Port Adelaide @ $17

Lowest scoring team - Richmond @ $3.50

I'm playing 7 of the 8 on the card this week. One match is difficult.

Geelong -50.5 @ $1.91 - Geelong are hot right now. They are at home. If they don't cover this, then something is wrong.

I was hoping Brisbane would be the dog in the match against the Roos. However, I'm still going with the Lions to cover the 7.5.

Brisbane -7.5 @ $1.91 - Kangaroos record at the Gabba is appalling. 2 wins from 7 attempts. And as said, Brisbane are in rare form.

Port Adelaide -10.5 @ $1.91 - Adelaide are shit as I've been saying all year. They have more injuries. Anyone backing Adelaide need to donate money to charity.

West Coast -20.5 - Fremantle suck and West Coast are getting back to their best.

Hawthorn ML @ $1.82 - Too strong for Essendon

St.Kilda -21.5 - I've fallen the mistake of doing the Dogs on the last couple of weeks. Fact is, the Dogs are crap and can't even kick anywhere near enough with no major forward to trouble St.Kilda who have found their attacking style in recent weeks. This will be another blowout and the Dogs unfortunately will be on the receiving end.

Carlton +31.5 @ $1.91 - Close game I think this will be. Ratten wants to press for the senior coach job and so far last week they played well. I see that continuing. Collingwood were awful last week.

Sydney V Melbourne - always play close games but Sydney are finally playing attacking football and not that defensive shit. Hard to call. Leaving it alone for the time being.

On theory, these 7 bets should get up. But theory doesn't always work.
 

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Nice analysis by Bossboss and Bolar,good luck all!!Not much stands out 2nite maybe a shootout again but the overs has been pounded badly with the Over 221+ only at 2.40,Most disposals is interesting!!

Group A!

West 4.00-Ball magnet!!
Boyd 4.80
Hayes 5.00
Montagna 5.50
Dal Santo 6.00
Harvey 8.00
Cooney 12.00
Eagleton 15.00

Group B!

Fisher 2.80
Ball 4.60Ball magnet!!
Hargrave 7.00
Reiwoldt 7.00
Johnson 8.50
Ray 9.00 -another ball magnet,is a good backbet!
Baker 9.00
Aker 12.00
 

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Nice analysis by Bossboss and Bolar,good luck all!!Not much stands out 2nite maybe a shootout again but the overs has been pounded badly with the Over 221+ only at 2.40,Most disposals is interesting!!

Group A!

West 4.00-Ball magnet!!
Boyd 4.80
Hayes 5.00
Montagna 5.50
Dal Santo 6.00
Harvey 8.00
Cooney 12.00
Eagleton 15.00

Group B!

Fisher 2.80
Ball 4.60Ball magnet!!
Hargrave 7.00
Reiwoldt 7.00
Johnson 8.50
Ray 9.00 -another ball magnet,is a good backbet!
Baker 9.00
Aker 12.00
Group A -West 30 posessions!!
Group B- Ball didnt play,Hargrave 24 posessions!!
 

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Just the one for the arvo,doing it for the retiring Kuta (champion)!!Also jumping on the Dees early,also still looking at the Crows +11.5pts and both teams under 15.5pts can go astray in a thriller at Football park!!

60 units on Carlton Blues +32.5pts @ 1.85 over Collingwood Magpies - Big crowd with emotions running high for Blues fans!!!

60 units on Melbourne Demons +43.5pts @ 1.90 over Sydney Swans - Too much pts to be honest here,played on Sunday!!

Good luck - other leans on Crows +11.5pts/Lions -7.5pts/!!!
 

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Guys - I hate taking unders but mark my words, one game will be under tonight.

Port Adelaide V Adelaide - Under 180.5 points @ $1.85

Looking out, the forecast is very bleak here in Adelaide - there has been some rain but AAMI stadium drains well. However, looking at the clouds, it's not looking good for later today. I was going to have a game of tennis with a mate but rain my force my hand.

Not only that, but this total is way too high. Sure Port have been scoring well of late but Neil Craig came out on Wednesday night on the news saying Adelaide are going to play defensive as it's the only way they can see them winning the game. He will want to put a defensive approach in tonight and still hope they put in a good offensive approach. This spells under.

Collingwood V Carlton - Over 192.5 points @ $1.68 - High scoring game.

Geelong V Richmond - Over 202.5 points @ $1.85 - Again, Geelong will score a lot and Richmond should score something.

Brisbane V Kangaroos - Over 205.5 points @ $1.90 - I said I don't like taking overs in Kangaroos games after I've been screwed over, but the last few weeks Brisbane have put up scores in excess of 140. Gotto keep riding that train. Brisbane will keep attacking. Kangaroos may play defense, but I think Brisbane won't change their method of play.

But the play of the day is the Under at AAMI stadium tonight.

Good luck!
 

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Projected scores.

Collingwood 110 - Carlton 100

Geelong 140 - Richmond 78

Port Adelaide 86 - Adelaide 69

Brisbane 120 - Kangaroos 100

Good luck!
 

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Guys - I hate taking unders but mark my words, one game will be under tonight.

Port Adelaide V Adelaide - Under 180.5 points @ $1.85

Looking out, the forecast is very bleak here in Adelaide - there has been some rain but AAMI stadium drains well. However, looking at the clouds, it's not looking good for later today. I was going to have a game of tennis with a mate but rain my force my hand.

Not only that, but this total is way too high. Sure Port have been scoring well of late but Neil Craig came out on Wednesday night on the news saying Adelaide are going to play defensive as it's the only way they can see them winning the game. He will want to put a defensive approach in tonight and still hope they put in a good offensive approach. This spells under.

Collingwood V Carlton - Over 192.5 points @ $1.68 - High scoring game.

Geelong V Richmond - Over 202.5 points @ $1.85 - Again, Geelong will score a lot and Richmond should score something.

Brisbane V Kangaroos - Over 205.5 points @ $1.90 - I said I don't like taking overs in Kangaroos games after I've been screwed over, but the last few weeks Brisbane have put up scores in excess of 140. Gotto keep riding that train. Brisbane will keep attacking. Kangaroos may play defense, but I think Brisbane won't change their method of play.

But the play of the day is the Under at AAMI stadium tonight.

Good luck!
Agree with Bolar on the Unders in AAMI :scared: Brisbane vs Shinboner will be a scrap and lucky to reach 200 imo!!
 

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Cant split both games 2nite,therefor see value on both games under 15.pts either way to the winner!!Also Welsh 6.00 most goals is tempting,can feel he will bag 3-5 which is more then good enough for a low scoring match!!

Crows vs Power Under 15.5pts either team @ 3.10!Game total Under 150pts @ 4.15 is worth a look at in what should be a scrappy affair!!Adel +11.5/Under 180.5pts @ 3.45!!Scott Welsh most goals @ 6.00 is definetely value!!
Lions vs Shinboners Under 15.5pts either team @ 3.20!
 
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