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Discussion Starter #1
ok folks i need advise on 2 bets

1. i took Hawks to win flag at a pre-season odds of $36 (around mid Feb) .. thinking it is value at the time , so i can trade it later.
also took couple of small bets at $1.9 for hawks to reach 8 and to win over 11.5 (may be early in the season)
Assume that i have one unit on the flag bet.for easy calculation $100 to win $3600
today As it stands Hawks are losing to lions and will be 5-4 and hovering around the bottom of 8 , where i was expecting them anyway , in fact they have done about right and almost overachieved (except for today).
there odds are almost halved .. Round $17 today (before end of game)
Question is: at what stage do i sell?
A. Now or soon
B. When i feel they will not make top 8
c. at conclusion of R23 at whatever odds , if they reach top 8
d. ride it all the way


my second question.
i took GWS to win flag at $8 at some stage R2-R3 ,,.. they we done a bit from $4 -$5 flag fav/second fav . i though value and they will bounce back..
odds now out to $21 , $26 . i can't sell as no value.
they are 11th now after R9
i am tempted to bet on them to make the 8 at odds , vary around 2.4 - 2.6
does anyone think there is value here ?
Who in the current 8 , will make room for them? with few others knocking
 

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Even though GWS are trending down and that they were diabolical against the Bombers last weekend you have to think they will come good eventually. They have too much talent not to.

If anything now is the best time to buy low with them and jump on them in the futures markets.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Even though GWS are trending down and that they were diabolical against the Bombers last weekend you have to think they will come good eventually. They have too much talent not to.

If anything now is the best time to buy low with them and jump on them in the futures markets.
today GWS are $5 before the Adelaide game to make the 8..
might take a bite of that and more if they lose too (hopefully at odds around 7-8)
there is less than 6 points between them and fifth
 

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Well 2 wins in a row and now they are 2 points outside the Top 8 with the hapless Lions this week on deck.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
on update on those 2 future bets after R17
Hawks lost to Lions in TAS , that was un-expected.. that took a dive and they may not the top 8 , next week carlton
Giants , coming back from the dead in the few weeks , including a win over Tigers .. On track to top 8 finish unlesss omething dramatically happens.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
both Hawks and Giants picking up wins in R18 ( hawks over carlton , Gianst over port in Adel)
both teams are in top 8 for the time being
Other results aslo kind of fell their way (stars are aligned) .
both future bets looks better than few weeks ago .. 5 rounds to go
 

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Discussion Starter #8
suitition after R20 is still good for Giants while hawks are hovering over the edge. R21 will tell a big story
 
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