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Discussion Starter #1
For those of you familiar with 538, it is an excellent site for data analysis. Here is what they had to say:

The odds of Nadal finishing at precisely 16 titles and Federer at 17 are a little under 15 percent. That’s also the most probable of the individual scenarios. Overall, there’s about a 61 percent chance that Federer ends his career ahead of Nadal, and about a 17 percent chance they end in a tie.

It looks like somewhat of a long shot for Nadal to pass Federer (close to a 22 percent chance), but if he were to have a strong summer and win two of the three majors remaining in 2014, he’d greatly improve his chances. Then again, failing to win even the French would be a serious blow — especially if Federer could pull off another win this year.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/happy-birthday-nadal-youre-probably-too-old-to-pass-federer/
 

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You really think a site like this is the intended audience for an article like that?
 

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Discussion Starter #4
You really think a site like this is the intended audience for an article like that?
They were in politics... now they do sports. I think it's fascinating to look at the data
 

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Discussion Starter #5
read this yesterday, very interesting. I always visit that site religiously during election season
If you love analyzing data, whether politics or sports, that site is the bomb.
 

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Yeah, and Roger will win a few tournaments :cool:
 

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Nadal getting to 18 looks really hard. I doubt it will happen. Too late for that. Nobody won more than 5 slams after turning 27. Nadal had 11 slams the day he turned 27, even in the scenario he won 5 slams after 27 like Laver, Agassi and Federer, that would give him 16 slams. Not enough.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
I really do hope people read the article. This is not a FedTard or NadalTard writing an article. This is a financial analyst and modeler for a professional site doing analysis.
 

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They were in politics... now they do sports. I think it's fascinating to look at the data
If you love analyzing data, whether politics or sports, that site is the bomb.
I really do hope people read the article. This is not a FedTard or NadalTard writing an article. This is a financial analyst and modeler for a professional site doing analysis.
Oh yeah, I totally respect and enjoy their writing. It's just a little complex and NOT the type of writing that appeals to MTF.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Oh yeah, I totally respect and enjoy their writing. It's just a little complex and NOT the type of writing that appeals to MTF.
I get what you are saying but who knows. haha. I thought it was a different take on things so I decided to start a thread about it. I don't open threads a lot here anyway :D But I get what you are saying
 

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Yeah but those data don't take into account the current state of the ATP tour. Only Djokovic has the balls to challenge Nadal (and he's failed miserably last 3 times they met at slams), young generation is crap, other players are declined or incosistent, Rafa could very well rule the tour till 2016 at least winning 6+ slams in the process.

Just stop the strong era BS though...
 

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Oh yeah, I totally respect and enjoy their writing. It's just a little complex and NOT the type of writing that appeals to MTF.
Lol what is actually complex in these stats?
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Yeah but those data don't take into account the current state of the ATP tour. Only Djokovic has the balls to challenge Nadal (and he's failed miserably last 3 times they met at slams), young generation is crap, other players are declined or incosistent, Rafa could very well rule the tour till 2016 at least winning 6+ slams in the process.

Just stop the strong era BS though...
But Rafa missed a big chance when he lost to Wawrinka. If his back is really bothering him, and backs don't just get better overnight, he may not be able to make it.
 

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But Rafa missed a big chance when he lost to Wawrinka. If his back is really bothering him, and backs don't just get better overnight, he may not be able to make it.
Toni already said Rafa is not injured at all. I think it's all mind games, just to make everybody think Rafa isn't the obvious favourite to win RG and to put more pressure on Djokovic who might as well get out before the final.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Toni already said Rafa is not injured at all. I think it's all mind games, just to make everybody think Rafa isn't the obvious favourite to win RG and to put more pressure on Djokovic who might as well get out before the final.
If his back is hurt, we will see against Ferrer. Other than that, Rafa needs to win this slam if he wants to match that record. It's a must win
 

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Best case scenario is Nadal wins one more slam, imo. Like Connors and Sampras wins 3 slams after turning 27. His career seems to be winding down.
 
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