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Who did you vote for? Or who would you vote for if you were a US citizen?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 7 41.2%
  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 8 47.1%
  • Minor party candidate or write-in

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • None of the above - they're all terrible

    Votes: 2 11.8%
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Discussion Starter #1
Dixville Notch NH has voted, and away we go! After a seemingly eternal campaign (Trump formally announced his reelection campaign the day after his inauguration), the big day has arrived. I thought it would be fun & interesting to post thoughts, reactions, highs & lows as the election results start to come in.
 

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Trump leads 16-10 in New Hampshire
Excellent result for Biden in the two towns Dixville Notch and Millsfield. This is a +10 % change towards Democrats compared to 2016. It's about what I expect for the overall vote, which would lead to a BIDEN LANDSLIDE.

The stats already show the trends I'm expecting for today. Republicans mostly stick with Trump, but independants leaning heavily towards Biden.

358142
 

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Discussion Starter #7
Biden campaign manager Jennifer O'Malley Dillon tweeted that Joe Biden has "multiple pathways to 270" without Florida & Pennsylvania. First, she is conceding without explicitly saying it that they're going to lose FL & PA. Second, while Biden could get to 270 w/o FL & PA, I'm not seeing multiple pathways. Biden would have to run the table in all the tossups, which is a huge ask.

In the scenario I worked out, Biden would have to win the other 3 Rust Belts, hold NV, and flip NE-2 & AZ. That would get him to 270. Sure, you could argue that he could flip other so-called tossups like GA or NC, but those states are further out of reach.

In sum, I'd much rather be in Trump's position right now than Biden's.

 

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Discussion Starter #8
Most of the states called so far are expected results: Trump wins W. Virginia, Indiana, and S. Carolina; Biden wins Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Illinois.

The big news is that Trump has won Florida, the must-win state for him because he had no viable path to 270 without FL. Big sigh of relief in the Trump camp right now.

Did Michael Bloomberg follow through on his vow to spend $100 million to flip FL to Biden? If so, that's money almost as well spent as his $1 billion+ to win 5 delegates from American Samoa. Thanks for apreading the wealth, Mikey!

Speaking of money well spent, Amy McGrath lost her bid against Mitch McConnell, despite raising almost $90 million. Hopefully she can commiserate with Jaime Harrison & Beto.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Biden has the rust belt already in the bag, with a margin of over 5 percentage points.

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina looking excellent, too. Florida should be a formality, with more than 2 million unaffiliated voters already turned up to vote. I predict they split 66-33 pro Biden.

This leaves Ohio, Texas and Iowa. I want them all. Texas looking fucking aweome, to be honest. The very high turnout numbers are devastating for Trump. Lot of people hate Trump there with a passion, and they suffered a lot because of covid. Trump's feud with the Bush family certainly does not help:


Leaves Ohio and Iowa, the only States I do not fully trust... They will be a coin toss I guess, with the slight edge to Biden.

I think the polls do underestimate Biden's performance, because they did not expect such a high turnout and how many independants will lean towards Biden.

I want 400 delegates for Biden and a 10+ margin win for Biden tomorrow, otherwise I will be slightly disappointed.
I copied this post out of another thread because it seemed more relevant here. When I read this, i had to wonder what fantasyland swiss_tennisgod is living in.

Iowa, Ohio & Texas for Biden? snort
I will eat my MAGA hat if even 1 of those 3 goes blue. FL, a "formality," has already been called for Trump.
 

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Vodka-boy as absent as Biden in the campaign I see... why?
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Vodka-boy as absent as Biden in the campaign I see... why?
Who knows?

At least Iowa, Ohio & Texas have all been called for Trump. Truth be told, I don't have a MAGA hat, so if Biden had won one of them, I would have had to go out & buy one, then eat it. I am a man of my word.
 

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Oh my, Trump is gonna take it, hilarious scenes down there! 😂
Trump haters in absolute ruins!
And BTW, all companies making polls and projections should just close - what a big fail.
 

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Vodka-boy as absent as Biden in the campaign I see... why?
Holy shit, in what kind of mess did I wake up to?

Biden is going to win, but he fucked up royally.

Looks like it was not the smartest move to bet all the money on a senile old fucker, after all.

Ah well, let's try to be positive. It will be absolutely hilarious seing Trump claiming victory, only to be crushed by the not counted early mail votes
 

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Discussion Starter #15
"Way wayyy too early to call"? I'd say more like an eensy bit early to call.

Not called yet but I'm giving North Carolina & Georgia to Trump (source: Decision Desk HQ) ...
NC: Trump leads by 76,701 with >95% in
Georgia: Trump leads by 117,788 with >99% in

I'll give Biden Arizona & Nevada ...
AZ: Biden leads by 130,021 with 80.7-97% in (if 700K election day votes are still outstanding & ED votes are going 65% for Trump, as the AZ GOP maintains, Trump still has a shot, but for argument's sake, let's say Biden pulls it off)
NV: Biden leads by 29,226 with 79.8-95.7% in (again, Trump theoretically still has a chance, but for argument's sake)

So far, Trump 248 to Biden 244. Here are the results as of right now from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin ...
PA: Trump leads by 719,270 with 73.7-87.2% in
MI: Trump leads by 277,342 with 68.3-80.2% in
WI: Trump leads by 109,805 with 86.9-99% in

If you're being generous to Biden, you can call PA, MI & WI tossups, despite Trump's leads in all 3 states. Biden would have to take 2 of the 3 tossups to win, and frankly, there aren't that many votes left uncounted. Biden would have to win a huge percentage of the votes outstanding to pull that off.

Can I definitively call the election for Trump? No, but I would much rather be in his position than Biden's.
 

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What a disgusting country, full of clowns voting for that thing.
You got what you vote👍👍👍👌
 

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Discussion Starter #19
OK, past 4 am where I am. Since I work nights, not that late for me, but definitely time to turn in. I'm 99% sure that I'll wake up tomorrow to read that Biden pulled it off in a squeaker. Something tells me I'm gonna toss & turn a whole heckuva lot.
 

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Trump has 214, and would reach 271 with these 57 electoral votes-
key.jpg

but he won't win Nevada.
Pennsylvania won't be easy either.
 
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