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What will happen at slams in 2020?


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I've always been cautious about claiming this and have challenged many MTF users over the past years that were expecting the Big 3 to stop dominating. But this year enough cracks have appeared that makes this a realistic possibility. Let's look at how the year went:

Australian Open - sure, Novak won again. However, his QF and SF were a joke and earlier, he lost sets to two youngsters: Shapovalov and Medvedev.
French Open - Nadal won as usual, but he lost a set to Goffin and also to Thiem in the final (who also had to beat Djokovic again the round before). I fully expect the 2020 match between them to go to five sets if it happens.
Wimbledon - The famous 40-15 Djokerer final. However, Djoko had a weak draw and still lost a set to Hurkacz. Federer has also avoided the really dangerous youngsters en route.
US Open - Best example? Medvedev almost won the final against Nadal after having a much tougher QF and SF. And it was his first final!

The story is, the youngsters are finally truly rising up. They can challenge and beat the best of the best. I'm not even talking about the M1000 and Nitto, where the Big 3 has totally lost their grip already. None of them even reached the final at Nitto. Only the slams remain, and enough cracks have showed there that it's totally reasonable to predict the fortress going down next year. All we need is for the youngsters to stop losing to the Goffins and Verdascos which will promptly bend over to Big 3 next round. Every time the Big 3 have faced the truly dangerous youngsters (Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Shapovalov, hell even Hurkacz) they've lost sets or matches. And those youngsters lacked experience then, which they will have now. They will also be higher in ranks, helping avoid more dangerous opponents early and the second tier of Big 3 gen, such as Tsonga and Verdasco, will keep declining further. GU should not be an issue at this point, I hope.

I've rambled on for too long. What do you think? Is 2020 the year of change, or the same old Big 3 domination? Or maybe the Comeback King claims it all?
 

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Well, if the Big 3's fortress gets blown wide open, shouldn't at least somebody be concerned about the damsels in distress? ;)

I actually think the younger guys may grab one slam next year—probably not more than that. But then again, who knows? I certainly wouldn't mind seeing a big change of pace.
 

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Looking at the odds at various betting sites, the big three are firm favorites against the field. Usually, I agree with the bookies pretty much, but not in this case. I voted two slams for the youngsters - including Thiem in this group.

Current odds suggest something like:

AO: Bookies: 60 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate, 40%)
RG: Bookies: 75 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate, 60%)
Wim: Bookies: 70 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate 55%)
USO: Bookies: 60 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate 35%)

When giving the bookies percentage, I tried to compensate for their margins but didn't do a thorough calculation (it is a bit tedious to do this, since all players with decent odds must be accounted for), so the numbers might not be completely accurate.

Still, the trend is clear. The bookies have not realized that the youngsters are coming - if it ain't Zverev's time now (when we talk about slams, it never seems to be), at least it is the time of somebody from the same generation.

All in all, I wouldn't advise anyone to bet their houses against big three in the slams, but maybe a sum you can afford to lose? :sneaky:
 

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Why do people keep on associating the old man federer (who is nearly 40 yo) with Rafa and Nole who are 5 and 6 years younger?
 

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Hmm. People have been predicting this for at least 5 years and so far they have been wrong at every turn. At some point they will be right. We all know that. The big question is when will they be right. Will it be 2020? Maybe, maybe not.

The youngsters have certainly gotten a lot better. I don't think that's even in question at this point. Having said that, that doesn't mean the youngsters will win two plus slams next year.

I think for the first time in a long time the youngsters are going to deal with what the big 3 have dealt with their whole career: expectations. Yeah, for years we've had folks hollering the young guys were coming but I don't think anyway seriously believed it. But now I think people seriously believe the youngsters are going to challenge for slams and number 1. So now they are going to have to deal with the same expectations and have the same target on their back that the big 3 had for some long. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.
 

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Fortress blown open? Or defences down just enough that another player might have a chance of winning something? I think the latter is more likely than a complete collapse and there's enough signs there that it could be considered more likely than last year, but it's never a sure thing.

Nadal only lost to other Big 3 players at slams, and has been pretty successful against the new generation in general. Even if Nadal isn't winning every slam, as long as he's still going deep he will be a barrier to these younger players. And of course until we see otherwise we can assume he's the huge favourite for RG. Djokovic lost to Thiem in a slam, but Djokovic has been more vulnerable on clay in general in the past couple of years so I'm not sure losing to a one hander at RG signals his coming downfall at other slams (he was routined by Thiem and lost to Cecchinato in the last couple of RGs so he's still trending upwards there if anything). On HC and Grass Djokovic's one slam defeat was down to injury and even there it was another old slam champion that was the one to finish him off not a new threat. So he's far from looking done at HC and Grass slams - dropping a set to Hurkacz is hardly a sign of worry. But, losses in Bo3 to players like Medvedev, Thiem, Tsitsipas who have had strong runs elsewhere does indicate he could be at risk in slams - if those players consistently deliver at HC slams, and if Djokovic doesn't perform significantly better in big slam matches on grass or HC, which he has done for the past couple of years.

Federer has been beatable at HC slams for the past couple of years, at Wimbledon he's looking as strong as ever against the field though. And even Nadal has been making Wimbledon SFs again in the last 2 years, so you have potentially all of the Big 3 still contending for Wimbledon. It's hard to read too much into grass records since so little is played on grass, but it's fair to say none of the new players are a proven threat there yet. All the Wimbledon semifinalists have all been veterans for the past 5 years. Obviously one of the young players could suddenly win big there but there's nothing suggesting imminent change at Wimbledon right now.

Of course, this year could be the one where the Big 3 finally all rapidly decline, but right now Big 3 winning 3 slams between them while a younger player takes USO seems like the most likely way their slam dominance ends. And I'd say it's more likely the Big 3 wins all slams than they lose out on more than 1.
 

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The signs are that Djoker is mentally and physically fatiguing faster than the other two. It's possible he may not have another Slam run in him, particularly if he gets dragged into a few long battles in the early rounds.
 

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Looking at the odds at various betting sites, the big three are firm favorites against the field. Usually, I agree with the bookies pretty much, but not in this case. I voted two slams for the youngsters - including Thiem in this group.

Current odds suggest something like:

AO: Bookies: 60 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate, 40%)
RG: Bookies: 75 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate, 60%)
Wim: Bookies: 70 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate 55%)
USO: Bookies: 60 % win chance for anyone from the big three (my estimate 35%)

When giving the bookies percentage, I tried to compensate for their margins but didn't do a thorough calculation (it is a bit tedious to do this, since all players with decent odds must be accounted for), so the numbers might not be completely accurate.

Still, the trend is clear. The bookies have not realized that the youngsters are coming - if it ain't Zverev's time now (when we talk about slams, it never seems to be), at least it is the time of somebody from the same generation.

All in all, I wouldn't advise anyone to bet their houses against big three in the slams, but maybe a sum you can afford to lose? :sneaky:
Thread looks familiar, maybe I saw one 12 months ago.:unsure:

Anyway, numbers are good. So based on bookies, there 81% chances someone outside of Big3 will win a slam next year. Not bad at all. Wonder what the number was last year.
 

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I'm really looking forward to next 2-3 years and I'm curious how change of the guard will look like. The fact is that Big3 have won last 12 slams (including last 7 for Djokodal). It's likely that their streak will be snapped in 2020 but I don't think they will suddenly stop winning slams. They are favourites until proven otherwise. IMO the AO will tell us more and possibly set the stage for rest of the year: in these conditions all Big3 can win and also all Younger3 (Thiem, Medvedev, Tsitsipas) could be very strong. At RG there's monstrous Nadal but one younger player (Thiem) has a decent chance there (for the first time I feel he could make it this time). Wimbledon will be the toughest for younger guys: all Big3 are very strong there while grass in not favourite surface for younger guys. USO is most open slam: a new GS winner may appear there (it was so close this year), especially if Big3 get tired/injured after a long season including Olympics. My prediction is 3 slams for Big3 (or at least 2): 1-2 for Djoko, 1 for Nadal, 0-1 for Fed and at least 1 for the rest (Thiem, Medvedev or Tsitsipas, maybe someone else).
 

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Thread looks familiar, maybe I saw one 12 months ago.:unsure:

Anyway, numbers are good. So based on bookies, there 81% chances someone outside of Big3 will win a slam next year. Not bad at all. Wonder what the number was last year.
Actually, I wouldn't exclude I predicted the downfall of big three already a year ago - which would have been when I joined MTF more or less. The fact that I don't remember how I argued at the time suggests I probably was wrong.

To compensate for me (probably) being wrong, I must assert myself by correcting your math a little bit. :geek:The calculation you made that gave 81 % is not correct, as the multiplication of probabilities applies only if the outcome of the four slams can be considered as independent events.

However, if big three are great at AO and RG, chances increase that they are great also at WIM and USO. Conversely, if they are crappy in one event, for one reason or another, chances increase that they are bad in the others. Similarly, if one great contender to big three emerges at AO, eventually winning this slam, chances are good that this player will be a huge threat also at the other slams. Due to correlations of this type, the outcomes of the events are not independent, and the bookies estimate for at least one slam winner outside big three is less than 81 %.
 

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It would be truly disappointing if they sweep all 4 slams - again. I mean it has to get more difficult every year, with the no-bendover generation emerging and getting stronger all the time.
so my most conservative estimate is that 1 slam will be won by a no-bendover. they might snatch a second one but more than 2 is rather unlikely, so 2020 will be a transition year rather than a complete changing of the guard
 
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