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How weak were 2002-03 seasons? Modeling modern-day equals for that dark years

795 views 44 replies 20 participants last post by  weakeraprophet  
#1 ·
Let's look at the 2002-03 Slam results and try to model modern-day equivalents to winners and finalists to see how weak those years were:
Tournament2002 FINALModern-day equal2003 finalModern-day equal
AOJohanson def SafinPaul def MedvedevAgassi def SchuettlerDjokovic def Sonego
FOCosta def FerreroKhachanov def ZverevFerrero def VerkerkZverev def Marozsan
WHewitt def NalbandianMedvedev def RublevFederer def PhilipussysAlcaraz def Berrettini
USOSampras def Agassi2022-fall Nadal def 2022DjokovicRoddick def FerreroShelton def Zverev

Wow, what a weak era that was!
Federer and Babydal saved tennis 20 years ago 🙏 🙏 🙏
 
#3 ·
Rainer was a decent Tour player before the final, had a career high in the 20-30 range, just like Sonego.
Verkerk is a good example of a journeyman who could get hot, much like Maroszan

It's just a retrospective view from your side. These guys were nobodies before they had good runs at Slam. Well, Rainer was as decent as Sonego is
 
#5 ·
I beg to differ on some of these examples. First, there are two impossible scenarios under any circumstances: 2022 Nadal beating 2022 Djokovic outside of clay and Shelphone beating Zverev at any Slam - the man can't beat Mugnarino from 2 sets to 1 up, how is he going to beat one of the only players who has been immune to losing against lefties in the last 3 years?
Second, Sonego is still too farfetched an example for a Grand Slam finalist. Schüttler reached another Grand Slam SF and a Masters final. I think the best parallel would've been Musetti, considering the Australian Open is currently Musetti's worst Slam.
Third, where is Sinner? Why doesn't he have a parallel?
 
#7 ·
I beg to differ on some of these examples. First, there are two impossible scenarios under any circumstances: 2022 Nadal beating 2022 Djokovic outside of clay and Shelphone beating Zverev at any Slam - the man can't beat Mugnarino from 2 sets to 1 up, how is he going to beat one of the only players who has been immune to losing against lefties in the last 3 years?
Second, Sonego is still too farfetched an example for a Grand Slam finalist. Schüttler reached another Grand Slam SF and a Masters final. I think the best parallel would've been Musetti, considering the Australian Open is currently Musetti's worst Slam.
Third, where is Sinner? Why doesn't he have a parallel?
Shelton was unlucky with his injury; otherwise, he was only stopped by Sincaraz at Slams this year
It's hard to come up with something equal to the Sampras-Agassi match; maybe 2024 Djokovic def. 2022 Nadal, but these are versions from different seasons
If anything, Sonego come, let's say AO 2024, is a better player than Schuettler come AO 2003
Musetti is way too young and way too good to be compared to Schuettler. Rainer was a super-average player who made the most out of his good run at AO. Pretty much like Norrie did from his IW title. But Norrie in 2024-25 is a former top-8 player, Slam finalist, and MS winner, while Rainer had no legacy before AO 2003.
Alcaraz is younger, so it's easier to compare him with 21-year-old Fed from Wimbledon 2003.
 
#19 · (Edited)
'Babydal' saved nothing. He just kept winning French Opens from 2005, that's it. Federer for sure played his part in making the era stronger but he was alone in this effort. The worst part of the weak era (2001-2007) is that it lacked a good set of giant killers. Rafter retired after 2001 and Safin was good for only half of this time period. The Fedal period (2008-2010) saw the emergence of four GKs - Tsonga (2008), Soderling (2009), del Potro (2009) and Berdych (2010).

Btw, many of the names in the table are mismatches. I will try to make it better. The following are the rough equivalents in recent years. I will keep some of your names intact.

Tournament2002 FINALModern-day equal2003 finalModern-day equal
AOJohanson def SafinPaul def TstitsipasAgassi def SchuettlerAlcaraz def Sonego
FOCosta def FerreroKhachanov def RuudFerrero def VerkerkRuud def Marozsan
WHewitt def NalbandianMedvedev def FritzFederer def PhilippoussisSinner def Berrettini
USOSampras def AgassiDjokovic def AlcarazRoddick def FerreroZverev def Ruud

Honestly, it was very hard to find matches for Agassi and pre-prime Federer. I have matched them with Alcaraz and Sinner, even though the latter two are much greater players.
 
#28 ·
The one that really grinded my gears and I say that in my worst Peter Griffin RI accent was Hewitt-Nalbandian at Wimby 02. After the great 01 throwback Final we got a baseliner shitshow and I reserve a special place of hatred in my heart for that arrogant bastard Nalbandian. Trash player (n)
 
#34 ·
Late 2001-03 was transitional era for sure.

Safin was seen as player to dominate after his destruction of Sampras in US 2000 but it was more flashes of genius in following slams rather than sustained dominance. Considering the level of Safin-Federer in AO 2005 we should've seen that as a genuinely big rivalry for 5-6 years at least given Safin's age but didn't happen.

Hewitt also looked very good in terms of mentality and benefiting from the slowing of courts and would've been seen as 5-6 slam winner at least in that era but injuries stopped that.

That era of FO passed me by really until Ferrero and Coria came to the fore and threatened to dominate for a few RGs before Nadal did it all countless times.

I think arguably the weakest slam in that period was Wimbledon 2002. Just look at the names from fourth round: Vacek, Kratochvil, Andre Sa, Wayne Arthurs, N. Lapentti.

5 career titles between them!

Henman had missed his big chance in 2001 against Goran although ironically he was arguably only a few points away from being favourite for that Wimbledon as Sjeng Schalken had some BPs late in the 5th set of QF v Hewitt. If he'd taken one the Wimbledon SFs would've been Henman-Schalken and Malisse-Nalbandian.

Don't get me wrong Schalken was a very good player indeed as involved in plenty of second week slam runs and classic matches but considering the next year at Wimbledon we had Federer-Roddick facing off in SF that was very weak year. 2001 had Agassi-Rafter in the forgotten SF which was also five sets and excellent quality.
 
#35 ·
It's certain that with Djoko, the goat of retirements in GS, it would quickly eliminate Berdych... we understand this "restriction" better without "prejudices" 😅
:oh:

Coincidentally, this happened only against a GS winner or a runner-up, no less. :help:
  1. Roland Garros 2005 – Guillermo Coria
  2. Roland Garros 2006 – Rafael Nadal
  3. Wimbledon 2007 – Rafael Nadal
  4. Australian Open 2009 – Andy Roddick
  5. Wimbledon 2017 – Tomas Berdych <== 2nd loss in Wimb after 2010 :hatoff:
  6. US Open 2019 – Stan Wawrinka
  7. Australian Open 2025 – Alexander Zverev
There is no question why JWT's victory over Djoko at AO 2010 is not counted... but only 2008 AO (Nadal), 2011 Wimbledon (Federer) :aplot:

So predictable... so insecure... so transparent it's touching
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