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Old 01-22-2007, 09:57 AM   #1
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Cool Superbowl XLI

Early odds, we have 2 weeks to think about it and watch how the lines move. After the AFC championships game this is bound to be a letdown, but still hoping for a great match between two teams with very contrasting styles.

AFC team laying a TD to a NFC team was pretty much expected IMO.


Code:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS     1.36       -7
CHICAGO BEARS	       3.15       +7
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Old 01-22-2007, 10:33 AM   #2
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Early odds, we have 2 weeks to think about it and watch how the lines move. After the AFC championships game this is bound to be a letdown, but still hoping for a great match between two teams with very contrasting styles.

AFC team laying a TD to a NFC team was pretty much expected IMO.


Code:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS     1.36       -7
CHICAGO BEARS	       3.15       +7
Colts win but not cover Dungy 23-20 Bears Manning for MVP
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Old 01-22-2007, 03:29 PM   #3
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

I think this should be a great game and I can't see how I'd end up on the colts @ -7. Even though its the superbowl I'll probably keep stakes low and root for chicago with the 7 points. Moneyline might make things more exciting
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Old 01-22-2007, 09:48 PM   #4
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Early odds, we have 2 weeks to think about it and watch how the lines move. After the AFC championships game this is bound to be a letdown, but still hoping for a great match between two teams with very contrasting styles.

AFC team laying a TD to a NFC team was pretty much expected IMO.


Code:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS     1.36       -7
CHICAGO BEARS	       3.15       +7
Is that a typo? I can't believe that there are odds of 3.15 for the Bears + 7.
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Old 01-22-2007, 10:58 PM   #5
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

Quote:
Originally Posted by bavaria100 View Post
Is that a typo? I can't believe that there are odds of 3.15 for the Bears + 7.
Odds may be slightly inflated but in the main I think it is about right

For those statistically minded, there have been 7 ocassions where a favourite has been laying a TD ATS and the results has shown that only once has the favourite actually covered the number. The Pats are most guilty of not covering


Moral of this stat - if a team is expected to win by a TD, invariably it is a close game decided by the last possession
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Old 01-23-2007, 01:30 AM   #6
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

Vamos Bears.
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Old 01-23-2007, 01:36 PM   #7
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Odds may be slightly inflated but in the main I think it is about right

For those statistically minded, there have been 7 ocassions where a favourite has been laying a TD ATS and the results has shown that only once has the favourite actually covered the number. The Pats are most guilty of not covering


Moral of this stat - if a team is expected to win by a TD, invariably it is a close game decided by the last possession
I'm just asking because on Betfair, Bears ML is 3.2 and Bears +7.5 is 1.8.

I think Chicago has a good chance to cover the spread. I really like Peyton, but I have the feeling that he'll throw 1 or 2 INTs during the game.
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Old 01-23-2007, 03:58 PM   #8
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

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Originally Posted by bavaria100 View Post

I think Chicago has a good chance to cover the spread. I really like Peyton, but I have the feeling that he'll throw 1 or 2 INTs during the game.
And how many do you think Sexy Rexy will throw?

He is due given his performance in the NFC championship game
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Old 01-24-2007, 01:01 PM   #9
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

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Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
And how many do you think Sexy Rexy will throw?

He is due given his performance in the NFC championship game
I don't know. Grossman is soo inconsistent and you never know which side of him will show up. I think he had 6 or 7 games with a qb rating of 100 + and 4 or 5 with less than 40 during the season. I watched the NFC championship game and I was always scared when he had the ball in his hands.
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Old 01-26-2007, 10:35 PM   #10
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

Big Sav Rocca has been drafted by Philadelphia Eagles,good luck champ!!
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Old 01-28-2007, 10:07 AM   #11
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

I'm backing the Bears heavily. I seriously don't want Rex to have a ring, he doesn't deserve it and this is the only way I can stop him.
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Old 02-01-2007, 08:07 PM   #12
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

Early propositions/player specials I'm looking at

Addai over 63.5 yards rushing 5/6
Wayne over 75.5 yards receiving 5/6
Total FG's over 3.5 6/5
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Old 02-01-2007, 08:08 PM   #13
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

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Originally Posted by Son of Sadriel View Post
I'm backing the Bears heavily. I seriously don't want Rex to have a ring, he doesn't deserve it and this is the only way I can stop him.
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Old 02-03-2007, 04:43 PM   #14
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

I have no knowledge about NFL however I am a Bears fan and they are the dogs and you guys seem to give them an chance.
I think a baby bet on the bears!
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Old 02-04-2007, 12:26 AM   #15
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Default Re: Superbowl XLI

I still have my indy outright pending and it should return me after deducting my other outrights 5 units profit.

So I hedged in part last week chicago + 7.5 @ -118 x 3 units

looking to middle it and make a tidier profit.

Some interesting props as well ( bet 365 )

Grossman vs Manning rushing yards - Manning @ 1.71 x 1 unit

Neither rush but manning is smart enough to at least run forward for a couple grossman panics gets out of the pocket and gets taken down more often than not.

Addai to score anytime @ 1.83 x 2 units. Anything close to the goal line is going into his hands with the strong coverage on the outside recievers.

Clark to score anytime @ 2.20 x 1 unit

If Addai doesn't get it and Mannings throwing into the endzone the easiest pass is inside and the weakest coverage should be on the te with linebackers covering him.

MVP plays

if the game plays out like I see it, theres only a few mvp candidates I like.

Scenario 1, indy wins

Bears wont be afraid of the colt running game and they shouldn't be so Peytons gonna have to throw into extra coverage. The coverage should push harrison and wayne outside and while the might connect on the odd deep pass the biggest weapon to peytons gonna most likely be Dallas Clark and Addai. Addai runs short pass routes but he may well pile up a few scores and get close to the century mark but peytons not gonna have a huge numbers day. Clark may put up 150 yards recieving with a couple scores, he's a mismatch and will be covered by Urlacher all day. Urlachers a stud but he cant cover Clark, he's not made for falling back into deep coverage. Defensivly I dont see any individual making enough plays to be a threat, grossman wont throw enough to get anyone a multitude of ints and unless freeney gets to grossman every other down this ones staying on offense thus...

Dallas Clark @ 21 x .5 unit
Addai @ 13 x .5 unit

If it plays the other way and Chicago wins then it didn't go well for peyton and he's either thrown some ints or the teams been fumbling and the bears defense has stepped up and imposed its will. Urlacher will be stuck in coverage so it most likely won't be major plays from him that led to turnovers. If its not him I see 1 possible candidate on d that could be a threat, Tank johnson will do the grunt work leaving Briggs to get a lotta tackles and lead for most of the sacks. Briggs is dominating and playing for a nice contract next season, an mvp title would look good when hunting down that contract. Then theres the secondary, I cant see Peyton being picked off more than once by any specific person so I cant see it falling back there. The bears offense seems unlikely as well as this is indys game to lose. The bears offense isn't going to win this one. Lovie wont let Rex throw enough to make him a threat. Jones might wear these guys down but he's a physical back, more speed than jamal lewis but indy can tackle him like they did Lewis. Benson I would see having more success running as he's more elusive but will he get the touches to make him a threat, I doubt it. Which leaves me to what I believe keeps this game close in any scenario and thats the special teams. I cant see Dungy kicking it to hester after being burned a few times but anytime he gets a touch he's a threat and the colts st coverage is soft. I see him having a few big runs, maybe scoring but playing a pivotal part in field position and making his name an important factor. Thus went with

Briggs @ 51 x .5 unit
Hester @ 26 x .5 unit

GL everyone
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