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Old 01-08-2007, 11:13 AM   #1
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Default ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

*** 2007 ***

ATP Tour Betting - Week 1 & 2





Tournaments: Auckland & Sydney
Date: 1st - 14th January, 2007


Welcome back guys, once again I'm hoping to provide ATP Tour selections and write-ups on a continual basis, hopefully with the same success as in previous years. Over the past two years I have finished the season with a return on investment over 20%, with 2006 being my most successful year, finishing the year with a ROI slightly over 25%. For those who are interested, I don't use any specific systems nor do I believe in following specific trends, I just analyze each match individually, on its own merits, drawing from what I have uncovered over my years of being involved in tennis. Having said that, I do like to keep a tight record of all betting action as I believe money management and discipline play a crucial role in long term success.

I'll be using a 1-10 unit staking system, with the average play being approximately 3-5 units. Feel free to offer any support, whether it be constructive criticism or just a few words of wisdom. I'm always willing to gain experience from other punters and hopefully together we can have a profitable year.

Good luck and happy punting
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Old 01-08-2007, 11:37 AM   #2
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Good luck Breaker,welcome back mate!!Hope ur studies went well!!!
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Old 01-08-2007, 01:16 PM   #3
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Thanks freak, all the best for the year mate

Keeping Records

Just thought I'd post the spreadsheet I use to keep track of my betting as someone may find it useful. Unfortunately this forum doesn't allow Excel documents to be attached to posts so you will have to download the file from HERE


Screenshots:








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Old 01-08-2007, 02:48 PM   #4
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Early thoughts:

Agustin Calleri over JM Del Potro @ $2.24

JMDP’s success at Adelaide should come as no surprise to those who have followed the tour closely over the past year or two, however, $1.74 favoritism seems to be a slight overreaction by the betting public as a result of the 18 year old’s recent results.

After being plagued by injuries for the latter part of last year Calleri should take to the court the healthiest we’ve seen him in months as he blamed poor tournament scheduling and lack of breaks for his injury woes of ’06. 2006 wasn’t all bad for the 30 year old Argentine beating the likes of Kiefer, Ferrer, Moya & Malisse on hardcourt and making the New Haven final and the Miami TMS QF where he lost to eventual finalist Ivan Ljubicic.

Most likely taking the more mature and experienced player who (from memory) started out at around $1.80 favourite with the bookies before easing out to $2.25+


Other matches under review include:

Monaco over King-Turner @ $1.23


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Old 01-08-2007, 03:23 PM   #5
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Very Professional.

Nice to meet you

Now i agree with the calleri prediction but be weary, this is a all argentine affair with rivalry set to play a crucial role.

Now, i will go with calleri but only with small stakes as i feel it could go to a deciding set.
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Old 01-08-2007, 11:23 PM   #6
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan View Post
Very Professional.

Nice to meet you

Now i agree with the calleri prediction but be weary, this is a all argentine affair with rivalry set to play a crucial role.

Now, i will go with calleri but only with small stakes as i feel it could go to a deciding set.
Hey mate - thanks for the feedback

I also had slight concerns over the influence of an all argentine affair while going through the form of both players, however, I feel that it only increases my interest in taking Calleri. Not only has Agustin gone 9-1 in his last 10 all Argentine affairs but he has also stated numerous times his will to play as much davis cup tennis as possible. You would think it would be in his best interests to do well against his fellow countrymen in order to cement a spot in a talented DC team which has numerous avenues to go down in regards to which players make the squad. At a time where motivation (and tanking) often come into question I feel that this should not be of concern with Calleri today. However, issues such as weather, lack of matchplay and injury problems have resulted in a reduction of stake.


Agustin Calleri over JM Del Potro @ $2.24

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit



Good luck guys
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Old 01-09-2007, 02:53 PM   #7
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Pending:

Agustin Calleri over JM Del Potro @ $2.24

Today's card:

I see very little value in today's card, however, one matchup has taken my eye.

Fernando Verdasco ($1.85) may be worth a look over fellow countryman Carlos Moya.

As would be expected, very few players who reach the semifinals and/or final in Chennai are able to back up the following week. Over the past four years only two players who reached the SF at Chennai have made it past the second round of the next weeks lead up tournaments. A sample of such instances are listed below.

Chennai Semi-finalists of ‘06

Stepanek (1st Rd exit)
Moya (2nd Rd exit)
Vliegen (1st Rd exit)
Ljubicic (Lost 1st two matches at Kooyong)

Chennai Semi-finalists of '05:

Moya (1st Rd exit)
Garcia Lopez (1st Rd exit)
Srichaphan (DNP)
Zib (1st Rd exit)

So far 2007’s Chennai semifinalists have proven no exception with Malisse, Nadal and Koubek playing minimal (if any) part in this weeks play and Moya needing a third set tiebreak to beat lowly ranked journeyman, Bourgeois. One would assume that going deep into the Sydney international isn't at the top of the aging Spaniard's priority list after a relatively successful opening tournament. In contrast Verdasco will be looking to build upon his solid start to the season after his straight sets win over Grosjean.

It must also be noted that during Moya's last seven appearances at this event he has only made it past the 2nd round once.

Overall, I will more than likely pass on this matchup, however, on a day where value is scarce, Verdasco comes across as a possible play.

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Old 01-09-2007, 03:12 PM   #8
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Once agains spanish pride is at stake in this match.

I have checked the head to head and moya seems to like playing verdasco with a 4-0 lead.

But, i have a rule with head to head records which is simple...Dont base your bets on it.

It must be stated that the last time these two played each other was in 2004. Verdasco seems to have developed into a qaulity player since then even though he had a dreadful end last season whereas Moya well what can be said about carlos?

He is on the verge of retiring and your point about chenai is a good one.

I think if both calleri and verdasco win later on we will be lucky as both matches are coin flips.

Sometimes you need abit of luck.
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Old 01-09-2007, 03:36 PM   #9
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2



Welcome back BREAKER!!!!

Just a word of advice, the "average odds" stat you have chosen to include is a rather inaccurate indicator of the odds you tend to select.

Only the odds of winning bets should be included, otherwise you could include a few players who are at 1000-1 to win the Aussie Open, and your average odds will be either double or triple digits.

For example, considering that your highest winning odds are 1.55, it is misleading to claim average odds of 1.68

Also, it would be more accurate if you weighted those odds according to the size of the bet. Again, this will limit the influence outliers may have on this "average odds" figure.

Your average winning odds would be 1.41 without weighting, or 1.38 with weighting.


PS. DON'T BREAK THE BANK!!!

PPS. Jump on Verdasco, don't be scared just because the odds are above 1.50

BOL
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Old 01-09-2007, 03:41 PM   #10
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Verdasco price is leaning towards fave every hour.................

The bookies might even have him at 2/5 by the end of today
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Old 01-09-2007, 10:57 PM   #11
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan View Post
Once agains spanish pride is at stake in this match.

I have checked the head to head and moya seems to like playing verdasco with a 4-0 lead.

But, i have a rule with head to head records which is simple...Dont base your bets on it.

It must be stated that the last time these two played each other was in 2004. Verdasco seems to have developed into a qaulity player since then even though he had a dreadful end last season whereas Moya well what can be said about carlos?

He is on the verge of retiring and your point about chenai is a good one.

I think if both calleri and verdasco win later on we will be lucky as both matches are coin flips.

Sometimes you need abit of luck.
4-0 record was when Verdasco was trying to find his feet in tennis,Verdy should blow Old Man Moya away,but with a Spainish affair Verdy might want to make it close for his respected country men,insayin that Verdy should have no problems,but depends if Verdy is switched on,it look liked that in his last match!!
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Old 01-10-2007, 03:00 AM   #12
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2




Calleri wins 61 63

ATP Betting Record '07: 6-1, +8.35 Units (ROI 36.30%)

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Old 01-10-2007, 03:16 AM   #13
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

Hey breaker, do you know where you can download excel?
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Old 01-10-2007, 03:22 AM   #14
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

I currently have a small 0.50 unit play on Verdasco over Moya @ $1.763 from last night which I will leave as is as I don't have enough confidence in Verdasco's motivation nor do I feel the need to cancel the bet



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Old 01-10-2007, 03:25 AM   #15
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Default Re: ATP Tour Betting '07 - Week 1 & 2

what's the point of this screen shot?
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