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Old 10-15-2006, 08:16 AM   #1
country flag Ernie_Money
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Default 4-team teaser to close out the week

Tampa Bay +17.5
Dallas Pick
Seattle +10
San Diego +3.5

Laying $560 to win $400 (a tie is a push)


Reasoning:

1) Tampa Bay is winless and hungry for that first win, and that plus home-field advantage, I feel, is just enough motivation to offset the motivation Cincy will have after their bye after getting throttled 2 weeks ago at Home by the Patriots. NE has been unimpressive to say the least this year, so I wonder just how good Cincy is after that Home loss. TB's defense should be enough to keep them within 17.
2) Dallas is in bounce-back mode after that loss to the Eagles where big plays and turnovers killed them. Bill Parcells will get back to the run and surely will give the Texans a heavy dose of TO this week as Dallas can ill-afford a loss this week at Home.
3) Seattle is also coming off a bye after getting throttled, but they got throttled by the best team in the NFL (Bears) at Chicago. The Rams haven't beaten anyone other than Denver (who handed them 5 turnovers at STL in the opener). So barring a bunch of turnovers by Seattle, they should win this game, although I expect a close game that goes down to the wire.
4) San Diego in a let-down spot, but they are clearly the better team here and should roll. But I always worry about Marty Schottenheimer teams playing to the level of their competition, so if this teaser is still alive after the 3 early games, I may hedge and take SF moneyline.

Week 7: 4-1: +$336
Week 6: 5-1, +$750
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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Old 10-15-2006, 08:55 AM   #2
country flag Nitefaery
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Default Re: 4-team teaser to close out the week

I think that looks like a promising bet, however I'd have to switch somebody for Chicago since they are pretty much unstoppable.
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Old 10-15-2006, 08:33 PM   #3
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Default Re: 4-team teaser to close out the week

I hedged my teaser after seeing the first 3 picks ahead down the stretch and I wanted to clinch a winning week, so I took:

San Francisco Pick, laying $100 to win $480

Reasoning:

Simple. A hedge to clinch a winning week. And a middle that can pay off with a miracle 3-point or less win by the 49ers. San Fran is probably not going to win, but if they can somehow win by 3 or less by some miracle, I can win both bets. Regardless, a winning week is clinched.
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Old 10-16-2006, 12:09 AM   #4
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Default Re: 4-team teaser to close out the week

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie_Money View Post
Tampa Bay +17.5
Dallas Pick
Seattle +10
San Diego +3.5

Laying $560 to win $400 (a tie is a push)


Reasoning:

1) Tampa Bay is winless and hungry for that first win, and that plus home-field advantage, I feel, is just enough motivation to offset the motivation Cincy will have after their bye after getting throttled 2 weeks ago at Home by the Patriots. NE has been unimpressive to say the least this year, so I wonder just how good Cincy is after that Home loss. TB's defense should be enough to keep them within 17.
2) Dallas is in bounce-back mode after that loss to the Eagles where big plays and turnovers killed them. Bill Parcells will get back to the run and surely will give the Texans a heavy dose of TO this week as Dallas can ill-afford a loss this week at Home.
3) Seattle is also coming off a bye after getting throttled, but they got throttled by the best team in the NFL (Bears) at Chicago. The Rams haven't beaten anyone other than Denver (who handed them 5 turnovers at STL in the opener). So barring a bunch of turnovers by Seattle, they should win this game, although I expect a close game that goes down to the wire.
4) San Diego in a let-down spot, but they are clearly the better team here and should roll. But I always worry about Marty Schottenheimer teams playing to the level of their competition, so if this teaser is still alive after the 3 early games, I may hedge and take SF moneyline.

Week 7: 4-1: +$336
Week 6: 5-1, +$750
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
Teasers even though not good value are good bets to make.
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Old 10-16-2006, 01:53 AM   #5
country flag Anders
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Default Re: 4-team teaser to close out the week

Quote:
Teasers even though not good value are good bets to make.
Not quite sure how to fathom that
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Old 10-16-2006, 07:05 PM   #6
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Default Re: 4-team teaser to close out the week

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anders View Post
Not quite sure how to fathom that
I think he is trying to say they are not good "value" because the juice is -120 or -140, depending on where you beat these 4-team, 13-point teasers.

The Value comes from the 13 points per team, and to me, this offsets the juice you need to lay to make these plays.
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