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Old 10-09-2006, 09:01 PM   #1
country flag Ernie_Money
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Default Week 7, Day 1

They are calling for rain and snow tonight.

Baltimore/Denver under 33, laying $102 to win $100

Reasoning:

Now I saw a post where there was a big snow storm a few years back at Denver on a Sunday night game when they played the Raiders, and I do remember that game going Over. But does that game really compare to tonight's game? Did the Raiders have a good defense? Was Denver's defense anywhere near as good then as it is now? I realize with sloppy conditions, the offense has an edge because "the runners/receivers know where they are going" and it's much tougher on the defnese to keep good footing when they are in constant reactionary mode. But Denver has a good run defense, which should neutralize Lewis. Denver held the St. Louis offense to zero TDs at STL, despite 5 turnovers and giving STL the ball numerous time deep in Denver territory. The Broncos also held KC to zero TDs. and lastly, they held NE to 7 points at NE. This defense is good. Their offense has been subpar all 3 games and everyone knows the Ravens defense is awesome. With the bad weather, the coaches will be conservative with the play-calling against these defenses and this will be a field-position game where both coaches will probably let their defense try and win this game, figuring whoever can play mistake-free football will probably win. Unless there are 2 or 3 defensive TDs and numerous big plays broken, this should stay under.

Week 6: 5-1, +$750
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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