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Old 10-07-2006, 10:03 PM   #1
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Default Week 6, Day 4

I passed on the Yankees over today even though I liked it quite a bit, but the afternoon shadows and the Yankees sudden hitting slump kept me off that one. I am taking:

New York/Los Angeles over 8.5, laying $119 to win $100

Reasoning:

Greg Maddux has an 11-14 career postseason record, although his ERA has been solid enough at 3.22 for his postseason career. This still is not the same Maddux this late in his career. He has also allowed 15 earned runs in 18 1/3 IP this season against the Mets. Steve Trachsel has never made a postseason appearance, so this is his postseason debut. He also gave up 4 runs and 5 hits in just 2 2/3 IP against LA in early September. Warmer weather should mean warmer bats and some runs.

Week 6: 3-0, +$300
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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Old 10-08-2006, 12:21 AM   #2
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Default Re: Week 6, Day 4

I thought strongly about the Red Wings/Penguins under tonight with Hasek and Fleury (Fleury coming off a 40 shot shutout performance), but a lot of games are seeing shots on goals in the mid-30s per team early on, so I cannot take an under just yet in this young season (and NJ/Dallas also looks like an under). I will go with:

Chicago Black Hawks -0.5, laying $100 to win $102 (regulation time)

Reasoning:

One of the NHL trends I look at are teams playing 2 nights in a row and we have 9 instances tonight. The Columbus/Chicago game seems to be the best of the bunch to me. Columbus was rested last night, at Home playing Vancouver, who was playing their 2nd night in a row, and the Blue Jackets led 2-0 after 2 periods, only to blow the game and lose in OT, 3-2. Now Columbus is not rested going into Chicago, who is rested, and the Hawks are coming off an impressive 8-goal performance at Nashville against Vokuhn 2 nights ago. Columbus has always been a MUCH stronger Home team, so I will fade them and take the Black Hawks, who made a lot of offseason moves to improve their squad this season. Now with the NHL, you can bet the puck-line or moneyline including OTs, or take Regulation-time lines -1/2. The juice is -148 including OT, which I will pass on, taking the slightly positive juice and hoping Chicago takes this in regulation.
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