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Old 09-25-2006, 05:19 PM   #1
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Default NFL WEEK 4

If you thought Week 3 was tough well take a gander at the games this week in the NFL. I hope many of you did well this week. I would have done a whole lot better if Kurt Warner didn't play on Sunday if you know what I mean. There are a few games that I like this week but not too many.

San Diego -2.5 at Baltimore
I am not overly confident on this one but the Chargers have looked awesome this year and are coming off a bye. Baltimore has looked incredible on defence and have impressed me as well. Something has to give here.

New England +6 at Cincinnati
Are you kidding me? I know the public loves the Bengals now but these are the Patriots! I anticipated the line to be around -3 for the Bengals but double that is a bargain. Don't overate the Bengals, they still have a weak run defence and Corey Dillion is back to his old stomping ground. I would love to know the Patriots record after losing a game in the last five years, I bet you it is pretty damn good!

Bears -3 over Seattle
Okay I will not waste my time on rationalizing this pick. The Bears on prime time against the Seahawks, did you see how poorly the Seattle defence looked in the second half of the Giants game? I don't need to explain anymore to you.

Packers Eagles over 46.5
What a high total huh? Well I don't think so both teams have struggled to stop offences from scoring a lot of points and this is on Monday night!! Eagles should win 38-31.

Good luck everyone!
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Old 09-25-2006, 06:37 PM   #2
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by callitasicit
If you thought Week 3 was tough well take a gander at the games this week in the NFL. I hope many of you did well this week. I would have done a whole lot better if Kurt Warner didn't play on Sunday if you know what I mean. There are a few games that I like this week but not too many.

San Diego -2.5 at Baltimore
I am not overly confident on this one but the Chargers have looked awesome this year and are coming off a bye. Baltimore has looked incredible on defence and have impressed me as well. Something has to give here.

New England +6 at Cincinnati
Are you kidding me? I know the public loves the Bengals now but these are the Patriots! I anticipated the line to be around -3 for the Bengals but double that is a bargain. Don't overate the Bengals, they still have a weak run defence and Corey Dillion is back to his old stomping ground. I would love to know the Patriots record after losing a game in the last five years, I bet you it is pretty damn good!

Bears -3 over Seattle
Okay I will not waste my time on rationalizing this pick. The Bears on prime time against the Seahawks, did you see how poorly the Seattle defence looked in the second half of the Giants game? I don't need to explain anymore to you.

Packers Eagles over 46.5
What a high total huh? Well I don't think so both teams have struggled to stop offences from scoring a lot of points and this is on Monday night!! Eagles should win 38-31.

Good luck everyone!
gl bro but I hate those picks. Sd has had a cakewalk of a sched and they get baltimore in baltimore and you gotta give up points???

NEs a dog cause they deserve to be. The bengals are that good. The pats are always the public play cause everyone believes they can at least keep it close. Dillon left last night with an arm injury, not a biggy Marones damn good but the pats record over the last 5 years means nothing to this year. Brady hasnt developed a good relationship with his wideouts yet and it leaves teams to focus on the run. Bengals in cincy, my numbers have the lines at -11 cincy so i'll likely take the bengals -6

I will admit my bias in this pick but are you kidding me when mentioning the 2nd half results of the ny game??? Did you see the score in the 1st half of the game with ny. Seattle took the rest of the game off. Everybody watching the game knew what seattle was going to do on offense all 2nd half, run on 1st, run on 2nd, pass on third if they got a first down great if not they wasted some time. Seattle shut it down at 45-0, even when ny scored it didn't scare the hawks the game was never in doubt. The hawks d when trying is top 5-6 in the league. Grossman had his fits with minny try a d thats as good but has an offense that puts up points, i'll take the points here as well most likely.

Pack/Eagles I wouldnt bet the totals till I got the weather reports as it could effect the result with it being an open air stadium.


So far the only play i've made is Cleveland over Oakland -2, I read the line came out at -1 so its being pounded, I had the browns -7 for my own lines before the real lines came out so if I liked them at -7 I love them at -2.

Vikes + the points might be a play for me as well but still looking into that more as I believe they should be giving points here but still researching.

Cincy maybe, Jax -3 possibly will confirm the rest of my plays later.
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Old 09-25-2006, 07:02 PM   #3
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

The Saint Louis Rams of Saint Louis to kill The Detroit Lions of Detroit
31-17
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Old 09-25-2006, 07:35 PM   #4
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by flmmkrz
gl bro but I hate those picks. Sd has had a cakewalk of a sched and they get baltimore in baltimore and you gotta give up points???

NEs a dog cause they deserve to be. The bengals are that good. The pats are always the public play cause everyone believes they can at least keep it close. Dillon left last night with an arm injury, not a biggy Marones damn good but the pats record over the last 5 years means nothing to this year. Brady hasnt developed a good relationship with his wideouts yet and it leaves teams to focus on the run. Bengals in cincy, my numbers have the lines at -11 cincy so i'll likely take the bengals -6

I will admit my bias in this pick but are you kidding me when mentioning the 2nd half results of the ny game??? Did you see the score in the 1st half of the game with ny. Seattle took the rest of the game off. Everybody watching the game knew what seattle was going to do on offense all 2nd half, run on 1st, run on 2nd, pass on third if they got a first down great if not they wasted some time. Seattle shut it down at 45-0, even when ny scored it didn't scare the hawks the game was never in doubt. The hawks d when trying is top 5-6 in the league. Grossman had his fits with minny try a d thats as good but has an offense that puts up points, i'll take the points here as well most likely.

Pack/Eagles I wouldnt bet the totals till I got the weather reports as it could effect the result with it being an open air stadium.


So far the only play i've made is Cleveland over Oakland -2, I read the line came out at -1 so its being pounded, I had the browns -7 for my own lines before the real lines came out so if I liked them at -7 I love them at -2.

Vikes + the points might be a play for me as well but still looking into that more as I believe they should be giving points here but still researching.

Cincy maybe, Jax -3 possibly will confirm the rest of my plays later.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Baltimore has played three weak teams so far. Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland. Tampa Bay we are now seeing is a pretty bad team as for Oakland they are probably the worst team in the league and Cleveland is not exactly a powerhouse and they almost beat the Ravens. The Chargers have only played two games so far, both against horrible teams but you can't fault them for having an easy schedule so far. San Diego has also crushed both teams by an amazing margin. Both teams have not played anyone good yet so it will be interesting to see what happens. I have to give the edge to the Chargers still as the bye week helps them prepare a bit more than the Ravens.
As for Seattle, they had the game in hand yes but there is no excuse for any team to fall asleep on defence the way they did in the second half. They will have to play better against the Bears because they won't give up many points at all. The Bengals did not play as well as the score may have indicated. Palmer was pretty average and if it wasn't for the Steelers brain cramps in the 4th quarter they probably would have won. The Patriots really need a win and the Bengals aren't as desperate. The 6 point spread is too high.
Since we don't really agree I will wish you luck on the games we do concur on right now. Minnesota, the Browns and the Jaguars.
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Old 09-25-2006, 08:59 PM   #5
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by callitasicit
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Baltimore has played three weak teams so far. Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland. Tampa Bay we are now seeing is a pretty bad team as for Oakland they are probably the worst team in the league and Cleveland is not exactly a powerhouse and they almost beat the Ravens. The Chargers have only played two games so far, both against horrible teams but you can't fault them for having an easy schedule so far. San Diego has also crushed both teams by an amazing margin. Both teams have not played anyone good yet so it will be interesting to see what happens. I have to give the edge to the Chargers still as the bye week helps them prepare a bit more than the Ravens.
As for Seattle, they had the game in hand yes but there is no excuse for any team to fall asleep on defence the way they did in the second half. They will have to play better against the Bears because they won't give up many points at all. The Bengals did not play as well as the score may have indicated. Palmer was pretty average and if it wasn't for the Steelers brain cramps in the 4th quarter they probably would have won. The Patriots really need a win and the Bengals aren't as desperate. The 6 point spread is too high.
Since we don't really agree I will wish you luck on the games we do concur on right now. Minnesota, the Browns and the Jaguars.
My biggest issue with the sd play is rivers. He's playing well so far but he's seen Oakland and tennesse, he's faced tougher d's in college. From that he has to walk into baltimore and take on the leagues nastiest d. Its easy for him to look good when LTs running for 100 + a game but we're talking a ravens team giving up 34 yards on average over 3 games. Ravens are gonna pour every available man into the box and leave the corners out on islands. Rivers is gonna have to beat this d passing in their yard and gl.

Re: Seattle and no excuse, there was every excuse. 45 points, there was no way they were giving back that lead and they played like a team that knew it. I dont think they brought a single blitz package the whole 2nd half and sat back in prevent the rest of the game. This wasnt about padding the total or shutting out the giants it was ride it out. This game was over after the 1st quarter realistically. If the giants had come out to play the hawks wouldnt have layed off. Even then 7 points on a hass int, another int resulted in the giants being 20 yards out from paydirt. Thats 13 gimme points which puts the d on hook for a legit 17 points.

Lastly the bengals, they didnt play that well and they won. Im not looking at the fact that they didn't play that well as a negative. They went into a hostile yard and walked out with the win against a tough squad. As for the pats needing a win I disagree, they got miami and buffalo coming up the next 2 weeks, those are games they want to win. This is a sandwich game for them. Div match ups are crucial. I hope they get whupped so the line on them against the fins and bills gets pushed down cause they could be nice plays in upcoming weeks.
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Old 09-25-2006, 10:15 PM   #6
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by flmmkrz
My biggest issue with the sd play is rivers. He's playing well so far but he's seen Oakland and tennesse, he's faced tougher d's in college. From that he has to walk into baltimore and take on the leagues nastiest d. Its easy for him to look good when LTs running for 100 + a game but we're talking a ravens team giving up 34 yards on average over 3 games. Ravens are gonna pour every available man into the box and leave the corners out on islands. Rivers is gonna have to beat this d passing in their yard and gl.

Re: Seattle and no excuse, there was every excuse. 45 points, there was no way they were giving back that lead and they played like a team that knew it. I dont think they brought a single blitz package the whole 2nd half and sat back in prevent the rest of the game. This wasnt about padding the total or shutting out the giants it was ride it out. This game was over after the 1st quarter realistically. If the giants had come out to play the hawks wouldnt have layed off. Even then 7 points on a hass int, another int resulted in the giants being 20 yards out from paydirt. Thats 13 gimme points which puts the d on hook for a legit 17 points.

Lastly the bengals, they didnt play that well and they won. Im not looking at the fact that they didn't play that well as a negative. They went into a hostile yard and walked out with the win against a tough squad. As for the pats needing a win I disagree, they got miami and buffalo coming up the next 2 weeks, those are games they want to win. This is a sandwich game for them. Div match ups are crucial. I hope they get whupped so the line on them against the fins and bills gets pushed down cause they could be nice plays in upcoming weeks.
We both bring valid points to the table. Brady does have a lot of pride and don't underestimate his ego. They will come out with a fire in their belly and should compete with the Bengals. I don't want to sound to redundant so I will stop. Obviously you know your football but anything can happen on any given Sunday.
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Old 09-25-2006, 10:44 PM   #7
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by callitasicit
We both bring valid points to the table. Brady does have a lot of pride and don't underestimate his ego. They will come out with a fire in their belly and should compete with the Bengals. I don't want to sound to redundant so I will stop. Obviously you know your football but anything can happen on any given Sunday.
I hope I wasn't being overly redundant, I like the back and forth as sometimes I pick up things I hadnt originally thought about so I tend to post my thoughts hoping to do the same for others. In the end want us both to crush the books bro gl to ya.

Alexanders out for the hawks against the bears so that should make you like your play even more.
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Old 09-26-2006, 12:28 AM   #8
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by flmmkrz
I hope I wasn't being overly redundant, I like the back and forth as sometimes I pick up things I hadnt originally thought about so I tend to post my thoughts hoping to do the same for others. In the end want us both to crush the books bro gl to ya.

Alexanders out for the hawks against the bears so that should make you like your play even more.
No man, not at all! I really respect the knowledgable people in this forum and am always interested in what they have to say even if they don't agree with me. At first I thought I would like the Bears more but Seattle has the best weapons in the air of any team so it should still be a difficult game to wager on.
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Old 09-26-2006, 08:29 PM   #9
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

An Arizona Cardinals source told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that the team has had a change of heart and will stick with Kurt Warner as starting quarterback.
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Old 09-27-2006, 03:27 AM   #10
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

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An Arizona Cardinals source told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that the team has had a change of heart and will stick with Kurt Warner as starting quarterback.
They could live to regret that decision....
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Old 09-27-2006, 06:42 PM   #11
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

This isnt week 4 directly related but just took denver to win the afc west. Might be the best time to get in on it as Baltimore should be beating the chargers this week thus making denver and SD tied for the lead and odds should drop. Both have easy games left over but theres a couple tricky match ups that could bite the chargers and even if they make it thru it comes down to their head to heads. Theres no way they're winning either of them. They may squeek into the wildcard but they dont win this division so @ 2.40 its great value imo.
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Old 09-27-2006, 08:05 PM   #12
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

locked in a few more plays

Cleveland Browns -2 x 3 units ( locked in earlier this week )
Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 ( bought the hook ) x 3 units

9.5 point teaser

Colts +.5 x Rams + 3.5 x Bengals + 3.5 x 1 unit

Would make this a bigger unit play but I dont trust the rams very much but my own lines have them as a legit double digit fave so + a fg it fits.

7 point teasers

Cowboys -2.5 x Vikes + 8 x 2 units

the line worries me here as the vikes are the overwhelming public play and the line went from 0 to +1 for the vikes so the big money must be on the bills to win but my numbers had them at -3 so plus a score, I'll trust the vikes d to hold them to that. Boys to win by a fg even with to's problems should be doable.

Hawks + 10.5 x Falcons pk x 2 units

Falcs at home after a tough game in New Orleans where the world wanted them to lose. Hartwell is practicing, Abrahams practicing so the d should be very ready to go and they are nasty when they are. The cards aren't stopping anybody on d so it should be a case of atl running all day and zona not getting anywhere. I believe the hawks have every chance to take this one outright so taking 10.5 is a no brainer when I see it as a pk at best.

adding

7 point teaser

Washington + 10 x Cleveland/Oakland over 26.5 x 2 units

Just a line read on this one, jax is the big fave coming in and getting a line thats making most of us scratch our head yet the lines not budging so somethings keeping it there. My read is its a sharps play, my own lines had this jax -7 so wash + 10 makes it playable within my own lines.
Clev oak over 26.5, I like the original over as both of these teams should be scoring a few tds a piece. Walters may be in but Moss on a back up corner is good for at least a score and the browns while improved on d since last year can still be moved on, td 2-3 fg type game, and Clevelands put up a couple scores on way better teams than oakland, 2 and 2 should be easy. Over 30 should be cake.
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Old 10-01-2006, 12:30 AM   #13
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

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gl bro but I hate those picks. Sd has had a cakewalk of a sched and they get baltimore in baltimore and you gotta give up points???

Disclaimer: I`m no NFL expert. But who has the better football team here? I know you have a vision of the SD run stopped cold and Rivers out of water but haven`t both teams had pretty easy schedules? I have read that the Ravens are weak on offense. Also read some interviews with Charger players and this appears to be a highly motivated team that gets along well with one another.
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Old 10-01-2006, 12:38 AM   #14
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Disclaimer: I`m no NFL expert. But who has the better football team here? I know you have a vision of the SD run stopped cold and Rivers out of water but haven`t both teams had pretty easy schedules? I have read that the Ravens are weak on offense. Also read some interviews with Charger players and this appears to be a highly motivated team that gets along well with one another.
It's anyone's game any week really. There are arguments on both sides of the spectrum on which team should win. Just have to wait and see.
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Old 10-01-2006, 01:07 AM   #15
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Default Re: NFL WEEK 4

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It's anyone's game any week really. There are arguments on both sides of the spectrum on which team should win. Just have to wait and see.
True enough, but the key to making some money or not losing in the long run lies in good decisions as to when to get on, when to stay away, and in how to value each bet. But I`m sure everyone know this...
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