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Old 09-19-2006, 11:10 PM   #1
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Default Week 4, Day 2

After that San Diego loss last night, I wonder if that is a sign from the stars to quit baseball for the season, as I could be in the midst of a cold, cold streak when crap like that happens. Back-to-back-to-back-to-back HRs in the 9th for LA and then a 2-run walk-off HR in the 10th to lose that pick last night. SD never trailed until the game was over. But, I am gambler, so I will go forward, although if I have a disastrous night tonight, I will have to re-evaluate what I will do with MLB these final 2 weeks carefully.

Tonight, laying a lot of small chalk:

Florida Marlins, laying $128 to win $100
Milwaukee Brewers, laying $130 to win $100
Los Angeles Angels, laying $132 to win $100
San Francisco Giants, laying $348 to win $300


Reasoning:

1) Mets clinched last night, should be resting plenty of starters, while Florida is still in the wild-card race (barely) and won't be resting anybody and I like them coming off a shutout.
2) Simple: Sheets vs. Jeff Weaver, I have to go with the better pitcher.
3) KC has been playing better baseball than LAA recently (believe it or not), but Saunders got rocked last time out and the last 2 times he got rocked, he bounced back strong in his next outing. KC bats are certainly overdue to regress to their mean, too.
4) Matt Cain has had 6 awesome starts in a row. Zero earned runs in his last 4 starts (spanning 29 2/3 innings) and 1 earned run in his last 6 starts (spanning 42 innings). Normally, I would say he is "due" for a bad outing, but after Colorado scored 20 last night, I see their bats struggling a bit in this spot and San Fran should be able to end a 3-game losing streak.

Week 4: 1-2, -$134
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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Old 09-20-2006, 02:32 AM   #2
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

You know I am sure Ive missed some money but there are two teams I cannot bring myself to bet any longer due to so many loses, the Braves and the Marlins. Both have horrid bullpens and unless there is a big lead going in late they so often throw away the game.

Also, right now is the most dangerous time to bet on baseball chalks IMO. Teams out of it do have something to play for, especially the bottom feeders. Much more than the attraction of the spoiler role, they are playing for their jobs! eg. spots in the rooster. That makes for a lot of good dog opportunities but hitting them is no easy task.

Last edited by TFan1156 : 09-20-2006 at 06:38 AM.
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Old 09-20-2006, 03:04 PM   #3
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie_Money
After that San Diego loss last night, I wonder if that is a sign from the stars to quit baseball for the season, as I could be in the midst of a cold, cold streak when crap like that happens. Back-to-back-to-back-to-back HRs in the 9th for LA and then a 2-run walk-off HR in the 10th to lose that pick last night. SD never trailed until the game was over. But, I am gambler, so I will go forward, although if I have a disastrous night tonight, I will have to re-evaluate what I will do with MLB these final 2 weeks carefully.

Tonight, laying a lot of small chalk:

Florida Marlins, laying $128 to win $100
Milwaukee Brewers, laying $130 to win $100
Los Angeles Angels, laying $132 to win $100
San Francisco Giants, laying $348 to win $300


Reasoning:

1) Mets clinched last night, should be resting plenty of starters, while Florida is still in the wild-card race (barely) and won't be resting anybody and I like them coming off a shutout.
2) Simple: Sheets vs. Jeff Weaver, I have to go with the better pitcher.
3) KC has been playing better baseball than LAA recently (believe it or not), but Saunders got rocked last time out and the last 2 times he got rocked, he bounced back strong in his next outing. KC bats are certainly overdue to regress to their mean, too.
4) Matt Cain has had 6 awesome starts in a row. Zero earned runs in his last 4 starts (spanning 29 2/3 innings) and 1 earned run in his last 6 starts (spanning 42 innings). Normally, I would say he is "due" for a bad outing, but after Colorado scored 20 last night, I see their bats struggling a bit in this spot and San Fran should be able to end a 3-game losing streak.

Week 4: 1-2, -$134
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913

When you say LAY are you laying to lose on one of the exchanges or to win?
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Old 09-20-2006, 10:15 PM   #4
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by probids
When you say LAY are you laying to lose on one of the exchanges or to win?
Maybe you can explain to us again your principle of making money betting on losers. Try and be more concise, less lingo if you can as I have no clue what you are talking about.
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Old 09-20-2006, 11:49 PM   #5
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by TFan1156
Maybe you can explain to us again your principle of making money betting on losers. Try and be more concise, less lingo if you can as I have no clue what you are talking about.

he is talking about bet exchanges like betfair .. when you put money (techinal term is LAY) on a team not to win

because the original poster .. had "laid" money ..he was asking whether he put this money to "back" the team or to "lay" the team (i.e for the team to win or for the team to lose"

if you are still confused .. had a look at betfair
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Old 09-21-2006, 12:00 AM   #6
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by bossboss
he is talking about bet exchanges like betfair .. when you put money (techinal term is LAY) on a team not to win

because the original poster .. had "laid" money ..he was asking whether he put this money to "back" the team or to "lay" the team (i.e for the team to win or for the team to lose"

if you are still confused .. had a look at betfair
I`ll take a look at it, Doesn`t make sense to me. I bet on a team or individual to lose with every bet unless I`m betting on totals...
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Old 09-21-2006, 12:48 AM   #7
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Difference in terminology - basically when an American say he is "laying" something generally means he is putting $$$ on an event
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Old 09-21-2006, 12:48 AM   #8
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

So when he says he is laying the chalk, he is accepting the lower return
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Old 09-21-2006, 02:44 PM   #9
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

sorry if I confused you.

Quick example

Last night I had 1000 Pounds on NYM to beat Florida at the bookmakers

I also had 1000 pounds (laid) them to lose on betfair at the same odds.

I lose 1000 with the bookmaker and win 1000 at betfair that covers the bookmaker stake.

My profit is 270 Pounds without risk. ( I am an aussie but trade UK for obvious reasons)

1000 - 10% times 30% = 270

The bookmaker I am affiliated with pays me a commission and most bookmakers do. You need two people to trade like this but it is fun and you never lose a cent!
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Old 09-21-2006, 04:44 PM   #10
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by probids
sorry if I confused you.

Quick example

Last night I had 1000 Pounds on NYM to beat Florida at the bookmakers

I also had 1000 pounds (laid) them to lose on betfair at the same odds.

I lose 1000 with the bookmaker and win 1000 at betfair that covers the bookmaker stake.

My profit is 270 Pounds without risk. ( I am an aussie but trade UK for obvious reasons)

1000 - 10% times 30% = 270

The bookmaker I am affiliated with pays me a commission and most bookmakers do. You need two people to trade like this but it is fun and you never lose a cent!
I think I follow you. You are betting both sides of an event at two different places and pocket the commission on the lose which you say amounts to 270 on 1000 or 27%. So all one really needs is a bookmaker willing to give you back 27% of your personal loses. It behooves me how they could profit on you that way unless you be a really bad gambler, what am I missing?
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Old 09-21-2006, 05:57 PM   #11
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

OK this is why you need two people. One to become an affiliate and the other to open an account through the affiliate link. It is good business sense to pay this commission as 100% of zero is zero. It is recurring so if the team you back wins they take the same 27% off your affiliate earnings. If you trade 2000 pounds per night and have around a 60% success rate per month you are up around 8000 pounds for the month. remember with the bookmaker you are backing the team you want to lose not win. The exchange you lay at also takes a commission starting 5 at % dropping to 2% so your true commission is 22 to 25%. If you need any help just ask but like anything just do some research and do dummy trades for a month or so.
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Old 09-21-2006, 06:51 PM   #12
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by probids
OK this is why you need two people. One to become an affiliate and the other to open an account through the affiliate link. It is good business sense to pay this commission as 100% of zero is zero. It is recurring so if the team you back wins they take the same 27% off your affiliate earnings. If you trade 2000 pounds per night and have around a 60% success rate per month you are up around 8000 pounds for the month. remember with the bookmaker you are backing the team you want to lose not win. The exchange you lay at also takes a commission starting 5 at % dropping to 2% so your true commission is 22 to 25%. If you need any help just ask but like anything just do some research and do dummy trades for a month or so.
I think I follow, is all a bit French as my training is in the liberal arts, not business. So your partner becomes the affiliate, you open an account through their link and count on them to kick back to you their commissions on your loses. Bet both sides of the event, you cannot lose as you have access to these kickbacks.
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:00 PM   #13
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Yes that is correct

I just had 495 pounds on Cleveland at 2.16 with the bookmaker to win

and then laid them to lose at the exchange for the same deal

495 pounds at 2.16

With this bookmaker I make 20% of 495 if Oakland win or if Cleveland win, I win or lose nothing as I win 574.20 at the bookmakers but pay out 574.20 at the exchange.
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:11 PM   #14
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by probids
Yes that is correct

I just had 495 pounds on Cleveland at 2.16 with the bookmaker to win

and then laid them to lose at the exchange for the same deal

495 pounds at 2.16

With this bookmaker I make 20% of 495 if Oakland win or if Cleveland win, I win or lose nothing as I win 574.20 at the bookmakers but pay out 574.20 at the exchange.
That makes since and it a damn good setup. Will hand it to you, but what is the criteria for becoming an affiliate? And are commissions based on volume?
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Old 09-21-2006, 07:16 PM   #15
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 2

Thank you
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