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Old 09-15-2006, 09:27 PM   #1
country flag Ernie_Money
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Default Week 3, Day 5

Clay Hensley burned me yesterday with an outstanding outing and Harang had one bad inning to garner the loss. Hopefully I can bounce back today. Problem is I like 10 games and want to bet them all, but I am either chicken or showing discipline, I am not sure which. My worst nightmare would be to go 8-2 and lose this game, but a lot of times, when I do go ahead and bet the 10 games, I go 2-8. So I will try 1 game today and see what happens:

ChiSox/Oakland over 9, laying $174 to win $150

Reasoning:

Normally, I would never bet this game Over as there are several factors that point to an Under, but I simply cannot ignore the wind and humidity factor tonight. The wind is blowing almost straight out to CF at 21 mph at game time and won't drop to about 16 mph until the game is about 2 hours old, but as the wind speed drops a little, the humidity is rising, and playing baseball for over 30 years myself, I have seen that the ball carries just as much in high humidity conditions than it does with a stiff breeze blowing out. The humidity will be at 69% at game time and will climb close to 80% by the end of the game. Esteban Loazia threw 5 straight gems before getting pummeled last time out at Tampa Bay, so he may be in bounce-back mode, but he also may be in for just a mediocre outing, as perhaps his absolute stellar stretch may be done and he will regress to his normal mean the rest of the month. Jon Garland has been awesome in 5 of his last 6 starts, not allowing more than 1 run in those 5 starts, and the other start, he allowed 4 runs in 8 innings. But these are hitters' conditions tonight, and the ChiSox bullpen has been shaky at best, and hopefully, Garland will regress to his mean a bit tonight. I also realize that the A's went Under their last time out after 6 straight Overs and normally I'd never take this game Over, but the weather conditions are just too strong to ignore.

Week 3: 3-1, +$289
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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Old 09-15-2006, 10:29 PM   #2
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Default Re: Week 3, Day 5

Very interesting, I have a small bet on the other side of this one, and with your excellent record, am tempted to abort it, but I am going to stand and we will see...
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Old 09-15-2006, 10:51 PM   #3
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Default Re: Week 3, Day 5

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie_Money
Clay Hensley burned me yesterday with an outstanding outing and Harang had one bad inning to garner the loss. Hopefully I can bounce back today. Problem is I like 10 games and want to bet them all, but I am either chicken or showing discipline, I am not sure which. My worst nightmare would be to go 8-2 and lose this game, but a lot of times, when I do go ahead and bet the 10 games, I go 2-8. So I will try 1 game today and see what happens:

ChiSox/Oakland over 9, laying $174 to win $150

Reasoning:

Normally, I would never bet this game Over as there are several factors that point to an Under, but I simply cannot ignore the wind and humidity factor tonight. The wind is blowing almost straight out to CF at 21 mph at game time and won't drop to about 16 mph until the game is about 2 hours old, but as the wind speed drops a little, the humidity is rising, and playing baseball for over 30 years myself, I have seen that the ball carries just as much in high humidity conditions than it does with a stiff breeze blowing out. The humidity will be at 69% at game time and will climb close to 80% by the end of the game. Esteban Loazia threw 5 straight gems before getting pummeled last time out at Tampa Bay, so he may be in bounce-back mode, but he also may be in for just a mediocre outing, as perhaps his absolute stellar stretch may be done and he will regress to his normal mean the rest of the month. Jon Garland has been awesome in 5 of his last 6 starts, not allowing more than 1 run in those 5 starts, and the other start, he allowed 4 runs in 8 innings. But these are hitters' conditions tonight, and the ChiSox bullpen has been shaky at best, and hopefully, Garland will regress to his mean a bit tonight. I also realize that the A's went Under their last time out after 6 straight Overs and normally I'd never take this game Over, but the weather conditions are just too strong to ignore.

Week 3: 3-1, +$289
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
The smart gamblers have restraint, a quality I admire but rarely practice. I suppose that is why you are rather successful. Yesterday I had a dream day in baseball going five for five and winning a decent amount of money. I share your feeling on the over on that game as both teams are due to bring the bats out!
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