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Old 05-05-2006, 11:52 PM   #1
bad gambler
 
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Question The Betting Public - Do they win?

I'm always trying to get an edge of the bookies in one way or another, and the concept of "fading the public" has always intrigued me. Personally I feel it is imperative to cap the game instead of capping the money trail but everyone has their own methods. So over the next month I am going to undertake an exercise of randomly selecting various matches across various sports such as tennis, rugby league, rugby union, AFL, american sports and see what the results are. Obviously this is not really going to prove anything but it will be interesting to see what the results are.

Ok so how this is going to work...

I will randomly nominate matches (well in advance of their start time) and post their lines as well here and basically if their is a line movement favouring one player/team by the time the event starts I will place "1 unit" on the player/team where the movement has been unfavourable, so effectively betting against the money trail. I realise all line movements are not as a result of where the money trail is, prime example being injury to key players, weather etc, but will use my judgement to determine whether this is the case. If their has been no significant line movement, it will be considered as a "no play."

The bookmaker I will be using to monitor the line movements is Centrebet, so for american sports it won;t really give me a true indicator of the money flow, but I don't want to overcomplicate this exercise by using multiple bookies.

Lets see how the contrarian picks fare.

Last edited by bad gambler : 05-05-2006 at 11:55 PM.
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Old 05-05-2006, 11:53 PM   #2
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

Record

Code:
Date     Event                    Pick       Result       Return         YTD

6/5      Estoril Tennis           Moya        Lost        -1.0          -1.0

Last edited by bad gambler : 05-07-2006 at 12:59 AM.
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Old 05-06-2006, 04:49 AM   #3
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

Tennis - 6/5/06

Davydenko ($1.88) v Moya ($1.88)

Rugby League - 7/5/06

West Tigers ($1.90) v Manly ($1.90)

Cronulla Sharks ($1.95) v Dragons ($1.85)

AFL - 7/5/06

Kangaroos (+5.5) ($1.90) v Hawthorn (-5.5) ($1.90)
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Old 05-06-2006, 12:03 PM   #4
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

Interesting stuff Prabu...do I say good luck?

Hope it works out the way it is supposed to!
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Old 05-06-2006, 01:46 PM   #5
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Tennis - 6/5/06

Davydenko ($1.88) v Moya ($1.88)

New line now Davydenko ($1.77) v Moya ($2.00)

Line movement good enough for a play:

Moya to beat Davydenko - $2.00 (1 unit)

Jez - I'm not dealing with real money here, this thread is for tracking purposes only, these by no means reflect my plays

Last edited by bad gambler : 05-06-2006 at 02:27 PM.
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Old 05-10-2006, 12:12 PM   #6
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

Interesting one was Johansson vs. Fognini last night. I think it was about a 30c shift in Fognini's favour, wasn't it?
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Old 05-26-2006, 11:43 PM   #7
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler

Rugby League - 7/5/06

West Tigers ($1.90) v Manly ($1.90)

Cronulla Sharks ($1.95) v Dragons ($1.85)

AFL - 7/5/06

Kangaroos (+5.5) ($1.90) v Hawthorn (-5.5) ($1.90)
I was unable to monitor the line movements of these events hence will be void

I will resume this exercise from now on, with special interest during the French Open
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Old 05-27-2006, 03:46 AM   #8
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

Interesting experiment .. I do think you'll find that more often than not, when there's a plunge from the public the proposition in question wins.

I also remember reading somewhere a tip from a professional punter to observe where the money's going and if in doubt tail.
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Old 06-08-2006, 11:05 AM   #9
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Default Re: The Betting Public - Do they win?

You cannot accurately say the weight of money is on something when it firms. Quite often its not. The only way to get accurate #'s is to have access to certain sites or know bookmakers. It also varies greatly from sport to sport as does the public's success.
For example take two of my best sports NBL (Aussie Hoops) and NHL. For the NBL public numbers has not too much significance where as in the NHL its huge for me.
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