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Old 05-11-2006, 11:08 PM   #1
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Default Quarters Friday

Code:
1.13	Federer	        V	   Almagro        8.2
11.5    Gonzalez        V          Nadal          1.08
1.22    Nalbandian      V          Ancic          5.3
1.5     Roddick         V          Monfils        2.58
Almagro might be worth a longshot, other than that, nothing really interesting.

Li over Schnyder might have value at 3.95, Patty hasn't been very impressive lately while Li is playing the best tennis of her career.
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Old 05-11-2006, 11:17 PM   #2
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Almagro is definitely worth a small play IMO.
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Old 05-11-2006, 11:45 PM   #3
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Should be Favourites Friday!

Roddick x Federer x Nalbandian x Nadal @ 2.26 (Betfair DIY parlay)
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Old 05-11-2006, 11:57 PM   #4
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

I totally agree with elroyf....I can't really see any of them losing.

Roddick is most at risk IMO...Bandy should win fairly comfortably...Gonzo could put up a good fight if he played consistently well - but that seems beyond him this week...Roger - no point saying much there...he won't lose If Almagro can play consistently excellent stuff - he could pull off a shock. But he can't sustain a high level for too long.

Considering Roddick x Nalbandian @ 1.83 (odds per Freeze)
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Old 05-12-2006, 12:41 AM   #5
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

I know I'm stating the obvious here, but isn't it amazing just how wide the gulf between Nadal & Federer vs the rest is ..?!

Today's odds once again highlight this massive gap .. While the likes of Almagro and Gonzalez have been short priced fravourites in all their matches this week, suddenly they're $8 and $11 rank outsiders against the two top dogs in mens tennis.
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Old 05-12-2006, 12:43 AM   #6
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Bookings giving almagro around 12% chance @8.1... i think he should have at least 25% chance of winning but shit.. this is like throwing money away even though theres great value, anyone beating against fed will probably lose money
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Old 05-12-2006, 12:59 AM   #7
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jez
I totally agree with elroyf....I can't really see any of them losing.

Roddick is most at risk IMO...Bandy should win fairly comfortably...Gonzo could put up a good fight if he played consistently well - but that seems beyond him this week...Roger - no point saying much there...he won't lose If Almagro can play consistently excellent stuff - he could pull off a shock. But he can't sustain a high level for too long.

Considering Roddick x Nalbandian @ 1.83 (odds per Freeze)

Roddick has served really well this tourney. Monfils tends to lack consistency and struggled against Ginepri. I think Roddick will cruise through in 2 sets.

Nalbandian, 2-0 h2h with Ancic and looking good this tournament. He is very good on clay, people tend to forget.

I think Federer will show that he really is the 2nd best and crush Almagro. Federer is extremely good on clay. But not the best.

Nadal, no problems. Gonzo far too inconsistent. Not serving well. Maybe his shoulder problem is playing up

All straight sets I reckon. In fact I am taking a speculative small stakes parlay on all faves in straights @ 6.3 (Betfair, selfmade parlay)

Last edited by elroyf : 05-12-2006 at 01:09 AM.
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Old 05-12-2006, 01:22 AM   #8
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Just took Almagro over Federer @8.4

Yes I like giving money to the books on the off chance Almagro schools Fed. Win back money later if ALmagro gets rolled.

3-6 WTD
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Old 05-12-2006, 01:42 AM   #9
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

I'll dare and say that Almagro is the 3rd hottest player on clay right now. But yeah, I don't see him beating Fed, maybe taking a set off him.
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Old 05-12-2006, 03:01 AM   #10
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

WTD: 5-12 -6.06 units

Roma

Almagro +735 o Federer (1)
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Old 05-12-2006, 03:25 AM   #11
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

I liken Almagro's clay season run thus far to Richie Gasquet of last year who was behind Nadal the hottest dirtballer, and we all know what happened in Monte Carlo last year - I love my tennis trends and use it as a basis for my most of selections, and funny enough I'm getting Almagro at around the same price I got Richie in last year's SF, potentially a good omen for today....

Almagro to beat Federer - $8.30 (big play)

good luck
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Old 05-12-2006, 03:28 AM   #12
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Looking into a couple of things re: Monfils but heavy lean on the Frenchman as well

Just got to shop around a bit...
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Old 05-12-2006, 04:37 AM   #13
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Almagro to beat Federer - $8.30 (big play)

good luck
Sometimes you just gotta know when to hit it! GL to us on Nico!

My moto: no guts, no glory!
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Old 05-12-2006, 04:41 AM   #14
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistyServe
Sometimes you just gotta know when to hit it! GL to us on Nico!

My moto: no guts, no glory!

As I say, just got to pick your situation, if the stars align pound the shit out of it, no point holding back

If I look like a goose in several hours time when Federer destroys Nico, so be it.
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Old 05-12-2006, 04:42 AM   #15
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Default Re: Quarters Friday

Adding:

Monfils to beat Roddick - $2.75

gl
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