Re: AFL Round7
here my views on tonights match.
Friday night footy this week is between 2 teams that have both shown less then expected of them this year with the saints sitting 3-3 but scraping away with the win against the bulldogs last week against Geelong which now site 2-4 after 4 straight losses and in need for a desperate win to stay in touch with the top 8.
Geelong gets a couple of big names in King and Harley but will be without Cameron Mooney. Saints will be out with a couple of big names without milne and kozi, "thumbs up" he may be back soon.
Last time these 2 sides met Saints ran away with it in the second half for a 41 point victory at the Dome.
Saints have been a great team at the Dome for quite some time now winning there last 8 games which includes snapping the doggies 9 game winning streak there last week, over these matches there they have a average of 122 points there and keepi there opposition to an avg of 75. The highest score opppistion has scored is 87 and saints have not been under that once.
Cats dont have a good record at the Dome either losing their last 4 there.
I dont think theres much working in the cats favour here from past records and current form and for the stats minded an interesting stat this year so far in FNF the home team has won ATS 5-1 and 3-0 as Home Favourite.
Dont see it being no different tonight.
1 unit St Kilda -9.5 @ $2.00
High Goalscorer Value
Each week I always put in my input on high goalscorer and this week looking no further then the favourite in big fraser @ 3.25. Reiwoldt @ 6.00 always chips in with a consistent 3 goals or so against geelong and has been consistent this year aswell and does have the potential to be up there at the end. Big fraser though was back in form last week with a match winning 6 goals after a fairly slow start to the season but still kicking his 3 or so goals. At the dome this yar he is averaging 3.7 and if he can manage just 4 tonight should be enough to be the high goalscorer tonight.
Value: Fraser Gehrig @ $3.25
Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( hayes 4.50, dal santo 5.00, ling 5.50, corey 5.50, harvey 6.50, ball 9.00, bartell 9.00, enright 9.00 )
Looking past the favourite here, Lenny Hayes has had a great start to the season but the last few weeks his posession count has dropped away a bit with 22,22 and 20 his last 3. Joel Corey has been pretty similar to Lenny having a blistering start to the season with the last few weeks quieting back down and he does seem to play alot better at home.
Cameron Ling was back in form last week racking up 31 for the cats and has a good past vs St Kilda though this week im going to go with the inform Nick Dal Santo @ $5.50. Last week Dal got 34 possies and has been red hot all year. including an average of 28.7 possies in his 3 games at home.
Value: Nick Dal Santo @ $5.50