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Old 06-04-2005, 01:14 AM   #1
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Default Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Okay...I have worked out the Wimbledon seedings top 10 based on the projected Monday Entry rankings (Nadal is assumed to win RG) and the Wimbledon formula which I think is as follows: -

Current Entry ranking points
100% 2004 grass
75% 2003 grass
50% 2002 grass
25% 2001 grass

The totals and seedings are as follows: - (Monday rankings points + Wimbledon seedings points = points total)

1. Federer - 6980 + 2263 = 9243
2. Roddick - 3590 + 1502 = 5092
3. Hewitt - 3685 + 1166 = 4851
4. Nadal - 3600 + 56 = 3656
5. Safin - 3065 + 96 = 3161
6. Henman - 1780 + 972 = 2752
7. Agassi - 2275 + 324 = 2599
8. Grosjean - 1315 + 1095 = 2410
9. Canas - 1990 + 143 = 2133
10. Davydenko - 2085 + 24 = 2109

No doubt this isn't completely correct...the formula might be inaccurate / I may have left someone out of the top 10 that perhaps should be there...but this is a rough estimation.

Thus, to put all arguments to rest (from other threads), Nadal WILL be top 4 and Henman WON'T be...unless there are 2 withdrawals among the top 5 which is possible (Hewitt, Safin) but highly unlikely. Henman is likely to be 6 no matter what because Agassi is unlikely to be fit for Queen's and even if he is, he has to win the event.
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Old 06-04-2005, 01:39 AM   #2
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Okay...as I have the workings in front of me I have made adjustments based on the possible formula of: -

1. Entry ranking points as of seeding date, plus
2. 100% of grass court tournament points from the previous 52 weeks, plus
3. 75% of single best grass court tournament points from 53-104 weeks ago.

They go as follows: -

1. Federer
2. Roddick
3. Hewitt
4. Nadal
5. Safin
6. Agassi
7. Grosjean.
8. Henman
9. Davydenko
10. Canas

Hewitt is well off #2. A SF performance at Queen's for Grosjean will bump him up to #6. As it is, Agassi is 95% sure of withdrawing so Grosjean and Henman stand to be bumped up to #6 and #7 respectively anyway.
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Old 06-04-2005, 02:03 AM   #3
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Two questions/points:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jez
Okay...I have worked out the Wimbledon seedings top 10 based on the projected Monday Entry rankings
Which Monday are you using: June 6th or June 13th? June 13th (after Queen's Club/Halle) will be the latest before the Wimbledon seeding.
Quote:
No doubt this isn't completely correct...the formula might be inaccurate/I may have left someone out of the top 10 that perhaps should be there...but this is a rough estimation.
Bob Larson reported last week that although the AELTC changes the seeding formula from year-to-year, it will be unlikely that any formula can promote Henman to the top 4 this year and he may not even be promoted to the top 8. His main basis for this statement was Canas's results: he didn't even factor in Davydenko who now has also passed Henman in the entry rankings. It's purely speculation for now, but here's his column:
http://www.menstennisforums.com/show...01&postcount=7
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Old 06-04-2005, 10:48 AM   #4
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Okay mate: -

1. Using Monday June 6 (see projected rankings thread - Judio)

2. He is correct which most people just won't accept. Henman CANNOT be top 4. There is a points gap of nearly 1000. He will definitely be top 8 provided that they take into account his last 2 years / even last 4 years. Grosjean is the only surprise package to pull him down...all other players immediately behind him have never done at all well on grass. By my calculations Henman is to be seeded 8 but Agassi is likely to withdraw promoting him to #7. Grosjean is 1 place higher than him.

Hope that answers your questions
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Old 06-05-2005, 01:11 AM   #5
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Bob Larson's column this week has more about the Wimbledon seeding issue:

http://www.tennisnews.com/exclusive.php?pID=5637
Quote:
The part at the top is easy: Roger Federer stays #1.

Below that -- well, there is more to it than just the rankings. There is the Wimbledon seeding formula. With Andy Roddick being last year's Queen's champion, and Rafael Nadal having pretty well filled his optional card, it appears Lleyton Hewitt is safe at #2 -- but who gets the #2, #3, and #4 Wimbledon seeds? It's obvious that the #2 spot comes down to Hewitt or Roddick. In the two years that will probably be the basis for the formula, Hewitt has a first round loss to Ivo Karlovic at 2003 Wimbledon, a semifinal at Queen's 2004, and a quarterfinal at Wimbledon 2004. Roddick has a semifinal at Wimbledon 2003, a title at Queen's 2004, and a final at Wimbledon 2004. That's obviously a big advantage to Roddick, but the seeding committee could always adjust the seeding formula (one is tempted to say they will adjust the seeding formula). They may well feel that Hewitt -- the 2002 Wimbledon champion, and the winner of Queen's 2000, 2001, 2002, and 's-Hertogenbosch 2001 -- is the better grass player. The one thing that's nearly certain is that every point either man earns at Queen's counts twice: Once toward his ranking, if it's big enough to go toward his optional five, and again (guaranteed) as a grass point. A good enough result for Hewitt might make it possible for the committee to find a formula to seed him #2.

The contest for the #4 seed is even more complicated, because there are no really strong contenders. The gap from #5 Safin to #6 Agassi is so wide that it can't be crossed (particularly with Agassi hurt and unable to play this week, and #7 Davydenko also not playing); either Nadal or Safin will be the #4 seed. Nadal's sole grass result in the past two years is a third round at Wimbledon 2003. Safin missed the 2003 grass season, and lost first round at both Halle and Wimbledon in 2004. Again, points earned this week count double. That means that the results this week will settle it.

Whoever fails to get #4 will certainly be #5. It appears Andre Agassi is also safe in the top eight seeds, assuming he's able to play. That leaves two Top Eight spots. Right now, Nikolay Davydenko and Guillermo Canas are #7 and #8, with Tim Henman a rather distant #9 going into the Roland Garros final and Joachim Johansson a still more distant #10. But Davydenko lost first round at Wimbledon 2003, first round at Halle 2004, first round at 's-Hertogenbosch 2004, first round at Wimbledon 2004. Canas was injured in 2003; he made the second round at 's-Hertogenbosch 2004 and lost first round at Wimbledon 2004. Henman made the quarterfinal at Wimbledon 2003, lost his opener at Queen's 2004, and made the quarterfinal at Wimbledon 2004. That's enough points, assuming Wimbledon uses a formula similar to recent ones, to move him past Davydenko and Canas. So it's Canas playing to try to overtake Davydenko. Best guess is that he needs a semifinal.

At least one guy will take a big hit: Halle finalist Mardy Fish, who isn't playing this week, will probably fall to around #65. Queens finalist Sebastien Grosjean won't be hit as hard, but he could fall to the #30 range.
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Old 06-10-2005, 01:47 AM   #6
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Federer, Safin and Canas are in the QF at Halle. Safin and Canas could meet in the SF, and one of them could reach the final, presumably against Federer.
At Queens, Hewitt and Henman are on course to meet in one semi, and one of them could face Roddick in the final.
How does that translate into Wimby seeding???
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Old 06-10-2005, 06:17 AM   #7
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

If Hewitt beats Henman and Roddick on his way to winning Queens, and is then seeded behind Roddick, I'll be extremely pissed.

Hewitt is a former Wimbledon champion, it's pathetic that they would seed him behind Roddick.
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Old 06-10-2005, 06:17 AM   #8
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

I hope Henman isn't in the top 8 seeds, and then draws Federer in the round of 16
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Old 06-10-2005, 04:48 PM   #9
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Current seeding positions for top 16 Wimbledon after qf at Halle and Queen's), assuming weighting formula same as last year's:

1. Federer
2. Roddick
3. Hewitt
4. Nadal

5. Safin
6. Agassi
7. Henman
8. Canas (would overtake Henman for 7th if he wins Halle)

9. Davydenko
10. Grosjean
11. Ancic
12. Johansson, J

13. Johansson, T (would overtake Pim Pim if reaches Queen's final, and Ancic if wins)
14. Robredo
15. Stepanek (could be as high as 13th with final, or 11th with win at Queen's)
16. Coria

Haas is currently 20th but can get to about 13th if he wins Halle.

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Old 06-10-2005, 04:52 PM   #10
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitsansh
Federer, Safin and Canas are in the QF at Halle. Safin and Canas could meet in the SF, and one of them could reach the final, presumably against Federer.
At Queens, Hewitt and Henman are on course to meet in one semi, and one of them could face Roddick in the final.
How does that translate into Wimby seeding???
Assuming they use last year's formula, only Canas and Henman would be affected by results this week. Federer, Roddick, Hewitt and Safin are all locked into position already and cannot move up or down (gaps too big).
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Old 06-11-2005, 12:14 AM   #11
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Quote:
Originally Posted by KarolBeckFan
I hope Henman isn't in the top 8 seeds, and then draws Federer in the round of 16
That can't be... the 9-12 seeds meet 5-8 seeds in the last-16...
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Old 06-11-2005, 03:10 PM   #12
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Quote:
Originally Posted by nitsansh
Federer, Safin and Canas are in the QF at Halle. Safin and Canas could meet in the SF, and one of them could reach the final, presumably against Federer. At Queens, Hewitt and Henman are on course to meet in one semi, and one of them could face Roddick in the final. How does that translate into Wimby seeding???
Here's Bob Larson's latest update:
http://www.tennisone.com/magazine/larson_news.php
Quote:
That means, assuming everyone plays, that we know 31 of the 32 seeds with certainty, though the order of course remains in the air. Seeded will be: Federer, Hewitt, Nadal, Roddick, Safin, Agassi, Davydenko, Canas, Henman, Joachim Johansson, Puerta, Gaudio, Robredo, Coria, Ferrer, Stepanek, Ljubicic, Nalbandian, Moya, Thomas Johansson, Ancic, Haas, Gonzalez, Hrbaty, Kiefer, Grosjean, Gasquet, Novak, Massu, Dent, and Ferrero; the remaining spot will go to either Volandri or Olivier Rochus. Youzhny, Feliciano Lopez, and Soderling are currently the first three alternates, but those slots are not assured.

We cannot estimate the Wimbledon seeds with certainty, given that we don't know the seeding formula, but if we use the formula Entry points plus all grass points in the past year plus half the grass points from the year before, we get this list:

Seed..Name.............Score
1 Federer............8647.5
2 Roddick............4682.5
3 Hewitt.............4047.5
4 Nadal..............3642.5
5 Safin..............3127.5
6 Agassi.............2352.5
7 Henman.............2212.5
8 Grosjean...........2130.0
9 Davydenko..........2100.0
10 Canas..............2065.0
11 Ancic..............1875.0
12 JohanssonJ.........1795.0
13 Robredo............1682.5
14 Coria..............1650.0
15 Puerta.............1618.0
16 Gaudio.............1592.5
17 Stepanek...........1590.0
18 JohanssonT.........1580.5
19 Ferrer.............1500.0
20 Moya...............1480.0
21 Nalbandian.........1465.0
22 Ljubicic...........1460.0
23 Haas...............1402.5
24 Gonzalez...........1352.5
25 Hrbaty.............1328.5
26 Kiefer.............1287.5
27 Novak..............1252.5
28 Ferrero............1240.0
29 Dent...............1240.0
30 Gasquet............1197.5
31 Massu..............1157.5
32 Volandri...........1100.0
This was written on Thursday evening so it doesn't take into account Friday or Saturday results:
Quarterfinal losers: Grosjean, Gasquet, Hewitt, Henman, Ferrero, O. Rochus
Semifinal losers: Stepanek, T. Johansson, Haas, Canas
Semifinal winners: Roddick, Federer, Safin

Also, Gaudio & Moya have now withdrawn.

Last edited by smucav : 06-11-2005 at 03:42 PM.
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Old 06-11-2005, 11:45 PM   #13
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

If I understand the formula correctly, we should add twice the points players got at Queens and Halle since the QF, IE 90 pts (45X2) for SF losers and 200 pts (100X2) for the finalists, and the winners will get additional 140 pts (2X70).

Seed..Name.............Score
1 Federer............8647.5 + 200 = 8847.5
2 Roddick............4682.5 + 200 = 4882.5
3 Hewitt.............4047.5
4 Nadal..............3642.5
5 Safin..............3127.5 + 200 = 3327.5
6 Agassi.............2352.5
7 Henman.............2212.5
8 Canas..............2065.0 + 90 = 2155
9 Grosjean...........2130.0
10 Davydenko..........2100.0
11 Ancic..............1875.0
12 JohanssonJ.........1795.0
13 Robredo............1682.5
14 Stepanek...........1590.0 + 90 = 1680
15 JohanssonT.........1580.5 + 90 = 1670.5
16 Coria..............1650.0
17 Puerta.............1618.0
Gaudio.............1592.5
18 Ferrer.............1500.0
19 Haas...............1402.5 + 90 = 1492.5
Moya...............1480.0
20 Nalbandian.........1465.0
21 Ljubicic...........1460.0
22 Gonzalez...........1352.5
23 Hrbaty.............1328.5
24 Kiefer.............1287.5
25 Novak..............1252.5
26 Ferrero............1240.0
27 Dent...............1240.0
28 Gasquet............1197.5
29 Massu..............1157.5
30 Volandri...........1100.0
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Old 06-12-2005, 06:17 PM   #14
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Tennis...514924225.html
Quote:
Hewitt to lose second seeding
By Richard Hinds
London
June 13, 2005

The now customary controversy about Wimbledon seedings could emerge again this year with world No. 4 Andy Roddick set to gain the vital second seeding for next week's championships ahead of Australia's No. 2-ranked Lleyton Hewitt.

Under the formula used by the All England Club to determine seedings, Roddick is likely to queue-jump the higher-ranked Hewitt because of his superior performance on grass in the past two years.

That could provide a significant advantage because the second seed will definitely avoid a potential semi-final clash with back-to-back champion and top seed Roger Federer, while the third seed will be at the mercy of the draw.

Wimbledon is the only grand slam tournament that continues to exercise the right to seed the players on their chances on grass rather than simply following the ATP rankings.

At present, a calculation that combines a player's current world ranking points and the points he or she has accumulated on grass in the past two years is used to rank the players.

In the past two years Roddick has won two Queen's Club titles - and was in a third final overnight against Ivo Karlovic - and reached the final and semi-finals at Wimbledon.

In the same period Hewitt has lost in the first round and quarter-finals at Wimbledon and reached a semi-final and two quarter-finals at Queen's.


While the points calculation favours the American, on merit alone the choice of second seed between Hewitt and Roddick - world No. 3 and French Open champion Rafael Nadal is out of the equation because of his lack of grasscourt results - is difficult.

Because Hewitt won the Wimbledon title in 2002 it could be argued that his ranking should be honoured.

But Roddick pushed Federer to four sets in the final last year - his big serve is a major asset on the surface - and he beat Hewitt in their only grasscourt meeting at Queen's last year, Roddick's only victory over the Australian in seven matches.

Both Hewitt and Roddick shrugged off questions about the Wimbledon seedings, mouthing the customary cliche about having to beat every player to win the title regardless of when they play them. "At this stage, all of that is a long way off," said Roddick. "I'm not even thinking about that."

Hewitt also remains typically buoyant about his chances at Wimbledon, knowing that he will have a chance to find his form if he can work his way into the second week. "That's where you want to play your best tennis because you're going to be coming up against the likes of Federer, Henman, Roddick, Nalbandian, these kinds of guys," Hewitt said.
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Old 06-14-2005, 02:39 AM   #15
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Default Re: Projected Wimbledon Seedings / guess the seedings formula to be used this year!

Here's the Bob Larson update after the Sunday finals:
http://www.tennisone.com/magazine/larson_news.php
Quote:
So the players seeded for Wimbledon will be: Agassi, Ancic, Canas, Coria, Davydenko, Dent, Federer, Ferrer, Ferrero, Gasquet, Gaudio, Gonzalez, Grosjean, Haas, Henman, Hewitt, Hrbaty, Joachim Johansson, Thomas Johansson, Kiefer, Ljubicic, Massu, Moya, Nadal, Nalbandian, Novak, Puerta, Robredo, Roddick, Safin, Stepanek, and Volandri. The alternates are Youzhny, Feliciano Lopez, and Soderling.

We cannot estimate the Wimbledon seeds with certainty, given that we don't know the seeding formula, but if we use the formula Entry points plus all grass points in the past year plus half the grass points from the year before, we get this list (we've redone this from last week; we had the wrong points for a few events. We'll hope this is closer):

Seed..Name.............Score
1 Federer............8817.5
2 Roddick............4852.5
3 Hewitt.............3997.5
4 Nadal..............3642.5
5 Safin..............3357.5
6 Agassi.............2352.5
7 Henman.............2262.5
8 Canas..............2195.0
9 Davydenko..........2100.0
10 Grosjean...........2030.0
11 Ancic..............1875.0
12 JohanssonJ.........1792.5
13 JohanssonT.........1700.5
14 Robredo............1682.5
15 Stepanek...........1680.0
16 Coria..............1650.0
17 Nalbandian.........1635.0
18 Puerta.............1620.5
19 Gaudio.............1592.5
20 Ferrer.............1500.0
21 Moya...............1480.0
22 Haas...............1472.5
23 Ljubicic...........1460.0
24 Gonzalez...........1352.5
25 Hrbaty.............1328.5
26 Ferrero............1280.0
27 Dent...............1280.0
28 Kiefer.............1272.5
29 Novak..............1262.5
30 Gasquet............1245.0
31 Massu..............1157.5
32 Volandri...........1100.0

Looking at the numbers, it appears certain (barring a massive change in the formula) that Roddick and not Hewitt will be the #2 seed. It's less clear that Nadal and not Safin will be #4; this gap is small enough that a change in the formula might affect it. So too with the Canas/Davydenko/Grosjean contest for the #8 seed, and of course the contest for #16 is far too close to call until we know the formula. Similarly the #24 seed. But, based on history, we'd guess that this is pretty close.
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