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Old 05-11-2005, 05:11 AM   #31
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeorgeWHitler
Chela hasn't been in great form at all, and if the weather is crap it helps the Toad especially if it's indoors.

Given if the conditions are normal then Chela should win, but the toad beat him on clay once though it was in Bĺstad where he plays well.

Seppi isn't that bad, but that shows how woeful he was that Schüttler got that close.
I know Seppi isn't too bad on the dirt, but I wasnt impressed when he lost last week after gaining the upper hand, and yesterday he served for the match in the 2nd set, before choking and strugging a lot in the 3rd. Schuettler had BP's at 4-4, but couldn't convert.

Canas is a solid top 20 player, it takes someone of note to knock him off generally.
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:16 AM   #32
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

money plays
Chela d Soderling - seems easy, almost toooooo easy
Massu d Flavor of the Month - Massu said he'd see results in 3 weeks upon return - it's been three and there's one, now two - I know I'm going against the board, so gl all
Crazy parlay is....Fed*Henman*Gros*Chela*Gonz*Vola
and for fun, the vchip special, Hrbaty d Step, because vbets are free!
Cheers all.
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:22 AM   #33
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

I have a question...how much should i consider a players last match when making a selection?..let me give you an example of what I mean...i am leaning towards Gasquet, but Massu is off a victory against Roddick...also I lean towards Chela, but Soderling was impressive yesterday against a good player....thanks in advance

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Old 05-11-2005, 05:24 AM   #34
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

imo, it's all about recent play - toss h2h out the window....example - Schuettler had a great year in 2003, same w/ Paradorn and they both would kill anyone betting on them this year...just my 2 cents, gl!
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:30 AM   #35
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

odds of Berdych @ pinnacle +1375, that ties fed v. zaba as far as the longest plus odds I've seen this year....not that anyone should touch that, just interesting...
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:33 AM   #36
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Final Plays for me:

Single: Puerta to beat Davydenko - $1.80 (i'll take any opportuinity to fade my fav player )

Single: Volandri to beat Lopez - $1.62 (Special of the day)

Single: Monaco to beat Novak - $2.00

Parlay: Volandri x Henman x Coria x Gasquet - $2.75 (I actually tend to agree with dnumberone, gasquet v massu will be closer than some think, but I still can;t go past richie the money train)

good luck to all

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Old 05-11-2005, 05:34 AM   #37
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
where are you getting those odds for pipo and richie?
Betfair mate... for the odds to be more precise I should really deduct my commission rate... but who could be bothered
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:39 AM   #38
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Correction on my above parlay, the value is now $2.68 thanks to henman's odds dropping
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:42 AM   #39
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

UPSET Mafia Inc Cream of da Day
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:49 AM   #40
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Gustavo KUERTEN (BRA) vs. Tommy ROBREDO (ESP)
Tim HENMAN (GBR) vs. Greg RUSEDSKI (GBR)

Kuerten is back to his peak after his injury period long ago. He played very well in his previous round and for Roberdo, he had JUST recover from a shoulder injury and still not in his peak and win luckily against Waska.

Gamebookers 1.85

Henman and Rusedski are country mate and under normal circumstance, anything can happen. They are team mate during the Davis cup last year and know each other very well. Both are very experienced player,not clay court specialist and both are playing serve and volley style and to me, the match is edge towards Rusedski. Rusedski definately has the upper edge in the serving part and he is definately not bad playing on clay court breaking Fededer once through statistic say otherwise.

Gamebookers 5.50
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Old 05-11-2005, 05:57 AM   #41
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by TennisMan85
Gustavo KUERTEN (BRA) vs. Tommy ROBREDO (ESP)
Tim HENMAN (GBR) vs. Greg RUSEDSKI (GBR)

Kuerten is back to his peak after his injury period long ago. He played very well in his previous round and for Roberdo, he had JUST recover from a shoulder injury and still not in his peak and win luckily against Waska.

Gamebookers 1.85

Henman and Rusedski are country mate and under normal circumstance, anything can happen. They are team mate during the Davis cup last year and know each other very well. Both are very experienced player,not clay court specialist and both are playing serve and volley style and to me, the match is edge towards Rusedski. Rusedski definately has the upper edge in the serving part and he is definately not bad playing on clay court breaking Fededer once through statistic say otherwise.

Gamebookers 5.50
Rusedski over Henman on clay... that's some tip
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Old 05-11-2005, 06:23 AM   #42
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Puerta x Gonzalez @2.46
Hrbaty x Gasquet @2.91
Kiefer @2.52

I couldn't bet on Volandri
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Old 05-11-2005, 06:45 AM   #43
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

seems like on much the same as the rest of you.

Volandri over Lopez
Puerta over Davydenko
Gasquet over Massu

Only slight variations were

Kuerten over Robredo
Safin over JCF
Henman x Fed x Gonzo x Coria
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Old 05-11-2005, 06:46 AM   #44
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by its.like.that
I know Seppi isn't too bad on the dirt, but I wasnt impressed when he lost last week after gaining the upper hand, and yesterday he served for the match in the 2nd set, before choking and strugging a lot in the 3rd. Schuettler had BP's at 4-4, but couldn't convert.

Canas is a solid top 20 player, it takes someone of note to knock him off generally.
I would never expect Cańas to lose to Seppi at all.
__________________
On Nadal bumping him on the changeover, Rosol said: "It's ok, he wanted to take my concentration; I knew he would try something".


Wilander on Dimitrov - "He has mind set on imitating Federer and yes it looks good. But he has no idea what to do on the court".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Filo V. View Post
I definitely would have preferred Gaba winning as he needs the points much more, but Jan would have beaten him anyway. I expect Hajek to destroy Machado, like 6-1 6-2.
Machado wins 6-2 6-1
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Old 05-11-2005, 06:54 AM   #45
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Default Re: ATP Master Series Hamburg : 11th May Day 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by 36908
The power of low odds, mate.
Safe.
Higher the odds (so called value bets), the riskier it is
Mate, a value bet isn't any bet with high odds.

A value bet is anything in which you think the bookies are paying more than they should do, hence it gives you 'value'.

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