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Old 04-21-2013, 10:38 AM   #31
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Not losing 6-1 6-2 to Wawrinka for starters.
I know it may feel like since Nadal has played about 90% of his matches since his matches on the surface since his return but clay is not the main surface on tour.
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Old 04-21-2013, 10:40 AM   #32
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by Moozza View Post
I know it may feel like since Nadal has played about 90% of his matches since his matches on the surface since his return but clay is not the main surface on tour.
He has a 100% win record off clay this year, including 3 wins over top 10 players.

However, enough fooling around here, this thread is about Federer's inability to win anything this year. So back to that. A slam? Start with a 250 Rog.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:02 AM   #33
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

Lol, how nice it is when people argue about 'who's the real #2', Fed, Rafa or Andy, but we have only 1 undisputed #1.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:06 AM   #34
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by uxyzapenje View Post
Lol, how nice it is when people argue about 'who's the real #2', Fed, Rafa or Andy, but we have only 1 undisputed #1.
For now
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:08 AM   #35
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
However, enough fooling around here, this thread is about Federer's inability to win anything this year. So back to that. A slam? Start with a 250 Rog.
This thread is actually about Federer's ability TO WIN this year.

You turned it into a "thread about Federer's inability to win anything this year" because you're a predictable, boring troll. No offense.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:11 AM   #36
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

For years Federer has been proving the critics wrong, so I'll never say that he's done. However, the matches I saw him play this year really concerned me. It genuinely felt he couldn't keep up with the opponents he lost to. Whereas his losses in previous years just felt like it was a matter of who was better that particular day, this year it feels like he's gotten behind permanently. But then again, I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow reaches RG final, wins Wimbledon, troubles Djokovic at USO, and takes another WTF home. You just never know with him.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:12 AM   #37
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Ladies and gentlemen, we found the first person alive who thinks Ferrer is a better player than Nadal right now. Congratulations.
He never said that. Your judgement becomes quite clouded when it comes to Nadal. He said that Ferrer has had better results than Nadal.

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Rankings don't lie, they tell us what they are supposed to. They tell us that over the last 12 months Djokovic has clearly had the best results, Federer and Murray are almost tied for 2nd, Ferrer is 4th and Nadal 5th. Of course, if Nadal had got his way and a two-year ranking had been in place then he'd be clearly ahead of Ferrer in 4th. As it is, though, he'll have to wait to get there.

Nadal has had the best results the past two months, but as far as I know noone has seriously suggested a two-month world ranking. Let's see if he can sustain it for a bit longer before we declare him underranked.
One's opinion about who is currently playing at the best level is a lot more subjective than who has had better results. When a player takes a seven month break from tennis, it is not too absurd that another player who played consistently well(although without those 'big' results) is ranked above this player for a while, especially in a ranking system that treats every week in the last 52 to be exactly the same.

Remember when Del Potro came back from injury and was ranked way below 50? It is not that the people above were 'better' players, but they had had better results. It is exactly the same thing here.

Edit: Getting back on topic, I doubt Federer has it in him to win slam this year, and this is coming from a fan. I hope he proves me wrong, though. One thing is for sure that it really would be too early to count him out. He has surprised us time and time again.

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Old 04-21-2013, 11:28 AM   #38
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
He never said that. Your judgement becomes quite clouded when it comes to Nadal. He said that Ferrer has had better results than Nadal.
Well, it was his response/argument to me saying rankings don't show who's the better player, just who had the most points over the past 12 months. Would be strange to write an essay like that if he didn't disagree with my statement.

Although if that wasn't your point, please tell me otherwise, Litotes.

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One's opinion about who is currently playing at the best level is a lot more subjective than who has had better results. When a player takes a seven month break from tennis, it is not too absurd that another player who played consistently well(although without those 'big' results) is ranked above this player for a while, especially in a ranking system that treats every week in the last 52 to be exactly the same.

Remember when Del Potro came back from injury and was ranked way below 50? It is not that the people above were 'better' players, but they had had better results. It is exactly the same thing here.
Before Nadal's injury, Nadal and Djokovic contested 4 consecutive slam finals, splitting the last 9 slams between them. After that Djokovic dropped off a tiny bit, but still reached the USO final and later restored order by winning the WTF and AO. Since Nadal's comeback, Rafa is yet to miss a final in his first 5 tournaments, winning 3 already, potentially 4 after today. We are back to seeing Nadal-Djokovic finals. When fit and playing, they dominate. It's that simple.

Federer's last tournament win was 8 months ago and Murray is still a clay clown, but has a case to be called better than Nadal at the moment. Federer? Absolutely not.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:37 AM   #39
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

Yeah on Virtua Tennis, vs his twin daughters.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:44 AM   #40
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

Honestly I think he has a chance at Wimbledon, but I can't see him winning Roland Garros or the US Open. Though at Wimbledon he'll get Tsonga/Nadal/Berdych/Del Potro QF and 3 of those 4 have beaten him there while the other almost beat him at the Olympics last year.
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Yeah on Virtua Tennis, vs his twin daughters.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:48 AM   #41
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by Brad Motoflou View Post
This thread is actually about Federer's ability TO WIN this year.

You turned it into a "thread about Federer's inability to win anything this year" because you're a predictable, boring troll. No offense.
None taken.

But me not agreeing he will win a slam this year makes me a boring, predicable troll and is not allowed in this topic? Sounds about right.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:48 AM   #42
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Look, I knew you are very, very focussed on numbers in tennis and don't use anything else than that to reason with people or predict results (probably the reason why I'm absolutely killing you with the ATP Draw Challenge, but that's another matter). I prefer to use my eyes and judge a player on level of play, quality of opposition and other factors.

Nadal only played half of the season, misses two slams in his rankings and was injured in the third, and still he's almost tied in points with Ferrer and not that far behind Murray/Federer. When he plays, he is just way better than those guys.
I've never said Nadal wasn't better than Ferrer when both play. However, Ferrer is much more likely to play at all, something that also counts.

You say the ranking is simply because Nadal was injured. Well, injuries are part of it, you can't be best unless you manage to be uninjured for the important tournaments. Something Nadal did not manage in 2012. He might in 2013, of course, and if he does his ranking will with great likelihood improve. But then again he might not. If anyone made a bet for who's most likely to either not play or use injury as explanation for a loss after this years W and USO, Nadal would be odds-on and Ferrer a serious long shot.

As for ATP Draw challenge, I have never claimed to be good at predicting the future. Not very consistent either. For example, I made vBets on Fognini to beat both Ramos and Berdych but picked him to lose immediately in the draw challenge. And still I managed subpar results both in the challenge and in vBetting. So I am not about to flaunt my own skills at prediction. I will say, however, I am competent at analyzing the past. My statement about Nadal's ranking should thus be read as a situation report, not a prediction.

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Old 04-21-2013, 11:56 AM   #43
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Before Nadal's injury, Nadal and Djokovic contested 4 consecutive slam finals, splitting the last 9 slams between them. After that Djokovic dropped off a tiny bit, but still reached the USO final and later restored order by winning the WTF and AO. Since Nadal's comeback, Rafa is yet to miss a final in his first 5 tournaments, winning 3 already, potentially 4 after today. We are back to seeing Nadal-Djokovic finals. When fit and playing, they dominate. It's that simple.
I don't see your point. Of the last 12 months, Nadal was the best in the last two and the first two, most(if not all) people would agree with that. But, since when does that mean that he should be ranked in the top two? The seven month absence has got to count for something.

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Federer's last tournament win was 8 months ago and Murray is still a clay clown, but has a case to be called better than Nadal at the moment. Federer? Absolutely not.
It comes back to the same point. Injury absence has got to count for something. You can not blame the ranking system(if you are) for this 'discrepancy'

And you shouldn't count Federer out just because he hasn't won a tournament in 8 months. Didn't Nadal go two years without a HC title? That is two spans of 8 months without a title. Yet, he is back to a place where you(and many others) are calling him among the best two players. It's too early to count Federer out.
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Old 04-21-2013, 11:57 AM   #44
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by Litotes View Post
I've never said Nadal wasn't better than Ferrer when both play. However, Ferrer is much more likely to play at all, something that also counts.
Not when discussing who's the better player. But it does count when discussing rankings. I wasn't doing that though. I just said Nadal was one of the top 2 players right now. Something that's different to the ATP rankings

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You say the ranking is simply because Nadal was injured. Well, injuries are part of it, you can't be best unless you manage to be uninjured for the important tournaments. Something Nadal did not manage in 2012. He might in 2013, of course, and if he does his ranking will with great likelihood improve. But then again he might not. If anyone made a bet for who's most likely to either not play or use injury as explanation for a loss after this years W and USO, Nadal would be odds-on and Ferrer a serious long shot.

As for ATP Draw challenge, I have never claimed to be good at predicting the future. Not very consistent either. For example, I made vBets on Fognini to beat both Ramos and Berdych but picked him to lose immediately in the draw challenge. And still I managed subpar results both in the challenge and in vBetting. So I am not about to flaunt my own skills at prediction. I will say, however, I am competent at analyzing the past. My statement about Nadal's ranking should thus be read as a situation report, not a prediction.
Predicting a tournament the day before it starts seems like a good indication of being able to judge who's the better player at the moment.
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Old 04-21-2013, 12:02 PM   #45
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Default Re: Federer to win a slam this year.

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Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
I don't see your point. Of the last 12 months, Nadal was the best in the last two and the first two, most(if not all) people would agree with that. But, since when does that mean that he should be ranked in the top two? The seven month absence has got to count for something.



It comes back to the same point. Injury absence has got to count for something. You can not blame the ranking system(if you are) for this 'discrepancy'

And you shouldn't count Federer out just because he hasn't won a tournament in 8 months. Didn't Nadal go two years without a HC title? That is two spans of 8 months without a title. Yet, he is back to a place where you(and many others) are calling him among the best two players. It's too early to count Federer out.
Achievement wise, Federer is above Nadal. Playing level and potential wise (and therefore more likely to have better results in the upcoming months), I'd put Nadal way above Federer. I highlighted the 8 months title drought as an indication of Federer's poor level of play.

The injury absence he had says nothing about his current level of play.
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