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Old 03-27-2013, 09:49 AM   #61
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
Now the #4 position for RG gets interesting.
Nadal is currently 115 points ahead of Ferrer. Once Miami points come off, he will drop to 65 points behind him. If Ferrer can defend his points(only 590 after Miami), it will very tough for Rafa to defend(2350) and put on more points over that. But, we definitely can't count Nadal out. A deep run for Ferrer in Miami will help help him a lot.
Yes, it's actually getting really interesting right now in terms of the Roland Garros seedings. Murray is looking like he could edge out Roger for the #2 spot, and Ferrer is a strong favourite now to hold off Nadal for #4. I can already hear the cries of anguish if Murray and Ferrer end up on the same side of the draw!

Here is a look-forward on the top 5. (I have no affiliation with the linked site.)

Roger has already announced that, once again, he won't play Monte Carlo, and Andy is defending 1,000 fewer points than Rog from Miami to RG. After Miami QF, Murray is 740 points behind in "live ranking". Makes his QF match with Cilic a pretty big deal.
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Old 03-28-2013, 09:06 AM   #62
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Originally Posted by Slasher1985 View Post
Murray must definitely win Miami and significantly improve his clay court game. I think that there is not much he can do until Wimbledon though, despite Litotes' most optimistic scenario described above.
Agreed. And thanks for your continued contributions with your Live rankings. Hopefully the powers that be will appreciate them... I couldn't good rep you again though you deserve it.

Respectfully,
masterclass
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Old 03-28-2013, 09:08 AM   #63
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Agreed. And thanks for your continued contributions with your Live rankings. Hopefully the powers that be will appreciate them... I couldn't good rep you again though you deserve it.

Respectfully,
masterclass
Well, a storm is brewing around here. I seriously hope the Mods will consider a small change to the forum rules in order to increase the quality of life here.
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Old 03-30-2013, 03:46 PM   #64
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

I'm not sure I understand this "provisional" ranking system?
Is it meant to predict the ranking at any point in the future, or does its predictive value diminish with time?
Who would be the provisional #1 one year from this coming Monday?

Respectfully,
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Old 03-30-2013, 03:48 PM   #65
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by masterclass View Post
I'm not sure I understand this "provisional" ranking system?
Is it meant to predict the ranking at any point in the future, or does its predictive value diminish with time?
Who would be the provisional #1 one year from this coming Monday?

Respectfully,
masterclass
I replied in the other thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
The provisional ranking is duong's list of the rankings on the points earned solely in a particular period of time. He does this generally for slams. It is like the race to the slam instead of race to London. It helps in predicting seeding for that slam as you don't need to understand which points will be dropped. Points will only be added(or in some cases they will replace lesser points in the best of other tournaments section).
See post #78 in this thread.
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Old 03-30-2013, 03:59 PM   #66
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

So let me see if I understand properly.
Is Mr. duong dropping all points earned after a certain point in time, and then assuming that they don't earn anything in the meantime to predict their potential seeding at a certain target date, counting only the points they've actually earned from a year before the target date?

If that is correct, then I guess the answer to my question about who would be provisional #1 a year from Monday is kind of meaningless. Whoever won the Miami final would be provisional #1 a year later.

If I'm hopelessly off base with my understanding, I might need a more basic explanation if someone wants to take the time
Thanks.

EDIT: Adding a simple example for one player:

Djokovic will have 12370 points on Monday.
If my target date is anything over one year from Monday, I drop all the points earned between this year and next, and I'm guessing he will have 0?

Or let's make the target date less than a year, say to before the Australian Open next year.
He'll have only the points he's earned since and including the AO this year? 2950? (AO + Dubai + IW + Miami)

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masterclass

Last edited by masterclass : 03-30-2013 at 04:27 PM.
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Old 03-30-2013, 04:32 PM   #67
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
yes that's it

As for 52 weeks from monday, actually noone would have any point, it's for the target two weeks earlier (between Indian Wells and Miami 2014) that the winner of Miami this year would be "the provisional number 1" ... or rather the "provisional leader"

In other words, to be seeded better than Ferrer for the US Open, Federer now needs to get 2100 points more than Ferrer from now until Cincinnati ... which is a lot, esp. if you consider that clay is Ferrer's best surface, and that the best conditions for Federer are the ones in the end of the year, after the US Open ... which will not count for the seedings for the US Open.
Ah, Ok. I was making an edit to my previous post to add an example for clarity, while you sent this.

So I think my point is that the predictive value of this provisional system diminishes with time is correct, since no one has any idea (unless you make personal conclusions ) what their actual results will be between the start date and the target date, and the further out in time you go, the more chance things can drastically change.

Respectfully,
masterclass
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Old 03-30-2013, 04:37 PM   #68
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Ah, Ok. I was making an edit to my previous post to add an example for clarity, while you sent this.

So I think my point is that the predictive value of this provisional system diminishes with time is correct, since no one has any idea (unless you make personal conclusions ) what their actual results will be between the start date and the target date, and the further out in time you go, the more chance things can drastically change.

Respectfully,
masterclass
I'm not sure what exactly you mean by that statement.
Let's talk about the race to London(as this is essentially the same concept). The race would give a better indication of the actual seedings in September than it would give in March. So, the predictive value of this provisional system would increase in time(as we get closer to the tournament in question).

Edit: But, of course, the difference between any provisional system and the actual rankings would decrease with time, so the provisional system would become less 'useful'.
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Old 03-30-2013, 04:48 PM   #69
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
I'm not sure what exactly you mean by that statement.
Let's talk about the race to London(as this is essentially the same concept). The race would give a better indication of the actual seedings in September than it would give in March. So, the predictive value of this provisional system would increase in time(as we get closer to the tournament in question).

Edit: But, of course, the difference between any provisional system and the actual rankings would decrease with time, so the provisional system would become less 'useful'.
Ah, yes, I meant that the further out your target date is from now, it's predictive value diminishes.
The race standings in March are much less conclusive than September with respect with how things will be at the end of the year. I think you got what I meant

In Mr. duong's provisional system, predicting RG seeding is probably much closer to what the actual seeding will be then the prediction for the US Open seeding, hence it's predictive value diminishes with time.

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masterclass
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Old 03-30-2013, 05:00 PM   #70
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Ah, yes, I meant that the further out your target date is from now, it's predictive value diminishes.
The race standings in March are much less conclusive than September with respect with how things will be at the end of the year. I think you got what I meant

In Mr. duong's provisional system, predicting RG seeding is probably much closer to what the actual seeding will be then the prediction for the US Open seeding, hence it's predictive value diminishes with time.

Respectfully,
masterclass
So, we did mean the same thing. We had opposite definitions of 'with time' and thus our statements 'increase with time' and 'diminishes with time' sounded contradictory.

By 'with time' you meant increasing time difference from current time and target date. I meant as time goes by(so, as the difference decreases).
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Old 03-30-2013, 05:39 PM   #71
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
exactly ... and the predictive value of what's called the "Race" is actually less good than the one for all of the intermediate points I made for slam seedings.
Agreed.

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Old 03-30-2013, 05:41 PM   #72
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

So to continue using Federer as an example, and if we went back in time, it probably wouldn't be so interesting to see what his provisional ranking have would have been for the 2012 US Open as of October 24, 2011. He had 7530 points at that point in October and was actually ranked 4th. Almost nobody would have predicted he'd win 9 titles including a major and 4 masters 1000 up to the 2012 US Open. So, it's probably obvious that his provisional ranking would have been rather low at that time.

But I'm just curious, at what point did the provisional system indicate that Federer would be provisionally ranked #1 following Wimbledon 2012? Probably not after AO 2012? Nor after even RG 2012?

Majors carry so many points that a result reversal can really change things in a single tournament. 2011 Wimbledon Quarterfinalist Federer beats defending champion Djokovic in the 2012 Semifinal, Federer goes on to win the title and you have a 2920 point swing from the year before.

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masterclass

Last edited by masterclass : 03-30-2013 at 06:03 PM.
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Old 03-30-2013, 05:44 PM   #73
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

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Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
So, we did mean the same thing. We had opposite definitions of 'with time' and thus our statements 'increase with time' and 'diminishes with time' sounded contradictory.

By 'with time' you meant increasing time difference from current time and target date. I meant as time goes by(so, as the difference decreases).
Yeah, man, it's so easy to get the wrong end of the stick with these things Glad we reached the same conclusion though

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Old 03-30-2013, 07:29 PM   #74
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by duong View Post
As there were some questions about it, here are the provisional situations after the Miami semifinals :

Seeds for Roland-Garros (first 24) :

Code:
1. Djokovic	10990
2. Murray	7990
3. Federer	7310
4. Ferrer	6380
5. Del Potro	4230
6. Nadal	3990
7. Berdych	3980
8. Tsonga	3300
9. Gasquet	2850
10. Tipsarevic	2630
11. Cilic	2515
12. Almagro	2210
13. Haas	2119
14. Nishikori	2090
15. Raonic	1895
16. Simon	1690
17. Querrey	1655
18. Monaco	1530
19. Wawrinka	1515
20. Isner	1475
21. Kohlschreiber	1445
22. Seppi	1445
23. Dolgopolov	1400
24. Janowicz	1299
Thanks, very helpful stuff. Just wondering if you keep the Nice points in for RG's seeding, my calculation differs from yours for both Simon and Almagro, I can only think of Nice. Second thought, Almagro is probably bcos of his DC points, which I still don't quite know how many will drop at when. Simon has no DC pts, so it's more straightforward.
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Old 03-30-2013, 08:44 PM   #75
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Default Re: The Live ATP Rankings Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by lalaland View Post
Thanks, very helpful stuff. Just wondering if you keep the Nice points in for RG's seeding, my calculation differs from yours for both Simon and Almagro, I can only think of Nice. Second thought, Almagro is probably bcos of his DC points, which I still don't quite know how many will drop at when. Simon has no DC pts, so it's more straightforward.
Nice doesn't count and Almagro will replace is 135 DC points by 90 points.

Almagro loses 65 pts for his 2012 DC QF win, so the remaining 70 points(135-65) become "non countable"
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