R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers - MensTennisForums.com

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vBookie Event: Dubai R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers (Tennis)

This event is over.
vBookie Event
Dubai R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers (Tennis)

This event is over.

Outcome Odds Total Bets Total Staked
Roger Federer 13/200 F (0.07) 7 18749 WIN!
Marcel Granollers 13/1 (13.00) 5 8836  

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Old 02-26-2013, 05:25 PM   #1
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Default R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers

Who will win this match? This market will be closed at the stated time. If a player retires before a set has been completed, all bets will be void and stakes returned. You must be logged in as a registered member to place bets using your Credits.

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http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/en/players/

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Old 02-26-2013, 07:12 PM   #2
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Default Re: R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers

in on Marcel
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Old 02-27-2013, 07:40 AM   #3
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Default Re: R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers

Do you think Federer has fallen that low yet?
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Old 02-27-2013, 07:49 AM   #4
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Default Re: R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mae View Post
Do you think Federer has fallen that low yet?
The odds are supposed to be set in such a way as to divide betters between the two options. If everyone bets on the same player, the odds were not set entirely right. Considering Granollers gives 13 times the stake in return if he wins, betting on him is not really a vote of little or no confidence in Fed.
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Old 02-27-2013, 08:16 AM   #5
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Default Re: R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Litotes View Post
The odds are supposed to be set in such a way as to divide betters between the two options. If everyone bets on the same player, the odds were not set entirely right. Considering Granollers gives 13 times the stake in return if he wins, betting on him is not really a vote of little or no confidence in Fed.
Are you saying the people that bet on Granollers are just hoping he gets the big upset so they can get the big pay off? Which is just the opposite of me who is always looking for the "safe" bet! And having more and more difficulty finding that "safe" bet
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Old 02-27-2013, 08:28 AM   #6
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Default Re: R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mae View Post
Are you saying the people that bet on Granollers are just hoping he gets the big upset so they can get the big pay off? Which is just the opposite of me who is always looking for the "safe" bet! And having more and more difficulty finding that "safe" bet
Well, look at it this way: If you make 13 bets on Granollers or similar players under similar circumstances, you only need your players to win just once to get your stake back. Two wins would be a handsome profit. If you make 13 bets on favourites like Federer here, you need them to win 12 times for you to break even, and all 13 to make a profit. Picking safe bets is a good strategy if you're aiming for a small plus over a short time, but if you play regularly you should - in theory - get the same return from playing the underdogs.

If you believe Granollers' chance of winning this match is above 7,7% (100/13) then you should bet on him. If you think it's below 7,7% then you should bet on Federer. If you want to bet on this match at all, of course.
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Old 02-27-2013, 01:51 PM   #7
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Default Re: R2: R. Federer vs. M. Granollers

Well, I see it in the same way of Litotes. I bet on the players that have an odd (that is relates to the chances that he has to win) that, in my opinion, has to be lower than it is. Betting for me is like wasting credits in players that I think that have better chances to win than the chances that vBookie (in MTF) says.

Af course if I think that Granollers has a 20% of possibilities to win I won't bet all my money in him. For this kind of bets the correct way is to spend a little amount of credits. If you guess the outcome of the match, as the odd is very high with little amount of credits you can win a lot of them, sometimes more than betting all your money in one favourite player.

The key is mixing "safe" bets and this kind of bets that we are talking about (in my opinion). And making a good management of the amount of credits for each pick. Here in MTF I bet almost all my money every day because I want to be in 1500 - 2000 credits to start an efficient management (if I'm lucky too ).
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