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View Poll Results: WWW Rotterdam 500?

Roger Federer 58 63.04%
Juan Martin del Potro 15 16.30%
Jo Wilfried Tsonga 9 9.78%
Someone else (specify) 10 10.87%
Voters: 92. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-08-2013, 05:29 AM   #16
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
I'm not sure we watched the same match. But as you said, Federer played great in the first few rounds of AO and he suddenly was 50% against Tsonga? I suppose that could have nothing to do with the fact that Tsonga is a much tougher opponent than the ones Federer faced previously and can put Federer under far more pressure.

I say your prediction will be wrong. Federer can definitely take the title, he's the favorite to do so actually, but it will not be easy unless Delpo and Tsonga lose early - even then, more players in the draw could give Fed a tough time. Both Tsonga (if he draws Fed in semis) and JMDP will at worst push him. Just look at the last 4 matches Federer played against each of them, when did he ever win easily?
Dude! Check the stats in the Tsonga match, the UEs were all the way, and the serve stats X__X

Fed vs Tomic
Aces: 11
DF: 4
1st serve in: 69%
1st serve won: 88%
2nd serve won: 45%
W/UE ratio: 46/20
Break points conversion: 3/16

Fed vss Raonic
Aces: 14
DF: 1
1st serve %: 64%
1st serve points won: 90%
2nd serve points won: 75%
Winners/UE ratio: 34/12
Break point conversion: 3/7

Fed vs Tsonga

Aces: 6
DF: 3
1st serve %: 61%
1st serve points won: 77%
2nd serve points won: 56%
W/UE Ratio: 49/47
Break Point conversion: 4/18


Of course Tsonga is a way better player than Tomic and Raonic, but IMO, as a fan of both players, I think both played really bad that match, Federer and Tsonga.
I'd say that Tomic would easily take one or two sets over that Fed, and defeated that Tsonga. I wasn't happy abour the level of play, and i'm pretty sure that if we don't count the last set, the stats would be even worse, he broke Tsonga and started making winners and serving better.

The thing that destroyed Fed in the last 2 matches was the big number of stupid UEs, not shanks, just stupid UEs, and IMO that's why I think he played at easily 50% or less. Tsonga played bad also, but not that shitty as Fed considering their level last year and in the early rounds.
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Old 02-08-2013, 05:41 AM   #17
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Quote:
Originally Posted by viruzzz View Post
Dude! Check the stats in the Tsonga match, the UEs were all the way, and the serve stats X__X

Fed vs Tomic
Aces: 11
DF: 4
1st serve in: 69%
1st serve won: 88%
2nd serve won: 45%
W/UE ratio: 46/20
Break points conversion: 3/16

Fed vss Raonic
Aces: 14
DF: 1
1st serve %: 64%
1st serve points won: 90%
2nd serve points won: 75%
Winners/UE ratio: 34/12
Break point conversion: 3/7

Fed vs Tsonga

Aces: 6
DF: 3
1st serve %: 61%
1st serve points won: 77%
2nd serve points won: 56%
W/UE Ratio: 49/47
Break Point conversion: 4/18


Of course Tsonga is a way better player than Tomic and Raonic, but IMO, as a fan of both players, I think both played really bad that match, Federer and Tsonga.
I'd say that Tomic would easily take one or two sets over that Fed, and defeated that Tsonga. I wasn't happy abour the level of play, and i'm pretty sure that if we don't count the last set, the stats would be even worse, he broke Tsonga and started making winners and serving better.

The thing that destroyed Fed in the last 2 matches was the big number of stupid UEs, not shanks, just stupid UEs, and IMO that's why I think he played at easily 50% or less. Tsonga played bad also, but not that shitty as Fed considering their level last year and in the early rounds.
All these stats tell me is that Tsonga is a far better player than the other two. Of course Federer will make more UEs and play 'worse' against Tsonga as he's under far more pressure. Against Raonic and Tomic, he knew he wasn't under any sort of pressure in his service games and that he'd almost surely win anyway. Tsonga's power off the ground doesn't allow Federer to be as comfortable on court.

Were you also surprised at the US Open last year when Federer suddenly played 'bad' against Berdych after looking really good in previous matches and how his stats looked much worse? It's easy to look good when you face opponents who cannot really trouble you, Federer and Tsonga looked 'bad' mostly because of how evenly matched they were and how they had to go for more than usual to get the upper hand. Put it this way: against Tomic/Raonic, Federer dictated 95% of the points where those two didn't put a big first serve in, against Tsonga he only got to dictate about half the time, he had to take risks with his shots far more often (hence far more errors). If you get stats for Fed's recent matches with the rest of the top 8 (bar Ferrer), you'll see they look far worse than his stats vs Raonic/Tomic and it's not because he randomly played 'bad' against them, but because tennis is a matchup sport - a player's level can never be seen in isolation, it always depends on what he gets from the other side of the court.

BTW, I'm not even discussing whether or not Federer and Tsonga were playing badly in that match, just that it tells us nothing about how they'd play in the same day against another (inferior) opponent. If he had faced Tomic instead of Tsonga that day, odds are he'd have routined Tomic again since the Australian can't trouble him and put him under pressure the way Jo does.

Last edited by Mark Lenders : 02-08-2013 at 05:53 AM.
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Old 02-08-2013, 05:51 AM   #18
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Federer played really bad during the whole 2012 US Open. Making UEs all the way, Young broke him twice... And IMO he played the same vs Berdych than vs any other USO oponnent. It never happened that "Federer suddenly played bad".
But that's my opinion of course.

In this AO it was pretty different, Federer was the most solid player until R4, and I really thought he could win the whole thing. Then, vs Tsonga he played really, reaaaaally bad, 50% or less.

And also, I don't think it was like you said vs Raonic. Milos was serving really well but his backhand was awful. And Fed didn't dictated as much as 95%, Milos tried to make backhand winners all the way dictating the game, and of course, making stupid UEs.

Sorry dude, we won't agree here. My opinion is the same, Fed at 50% should win the tournament if Delpo and Tsonga are like that, let's see how him and the other players decide to play.
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Old 02-08-2013, 06:03 AM   #19
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Quote:
Originally Posted by viruzzz View Post
Federer played really bad during the whole 2012 US Open. Making UEs all the way, Young broke him twice... And IMO he played the same vs Berdych than vs any other USO oponnent. It never happened that "Federer suddenly played bad".
But that's my opinion of course.

In this AO it was pretty different, Federer was the most solid player until R4, and I really thought he could win the whole thing. Then, vs Tsonga he played really, reaaaaally bad, 50% or less.

And also, I don't think it was like you said vs Raonic. Milos was serving really well but his backhand was awful. And Fed didn't dictated as much as 95%, Milos tried to make backhand winners all the way dictating the game, and of course, making stupid UEs.

Sorry dude, we won't agree here. My opinion is the same, Fed at 50% should win the tournament if Delpo and Tsonga are like that, let's see how him and the other players decide to play.
Don't be surprised if that happens again; how players fare against opponents who can't trouble them in any way is no indication of who is winning any title. Hell, last year here in Rotterdam Delpo looked quite impressive in QF and SF, dropping 5 games in total and then was totally outclassed by Federer. It was not because he suddenly dropped his level, just Federer has the tools to disrupt his game that Troicki and Berdych don't.

Federer dictated 95% of the points where Raonic didn't put a big first serve in, that was my point. Of course when he got a huge serve in, Milos dictated, but that was the only weapon he had to unsettle Federer, which is obviously not enough. 95% of points not started with a huge Raonic serve, Federer dictated at will.

And fair enough, we'll see how things unfold next week.
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Old 02-08-2013, 06:08 AM   #20
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Mug event. Haase better go in Kitzbuhel mode and take out these mugs.
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Old 02-08-2013, 06:14 AM   #21
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Delpo and Federer are really different players, considering what happened last year, when Roger started well a tournament, he played well from the whole tournament with the exception of Halle.
Or the contrary, when he started bad, sometimes he played better, but this AO-thing, never happened in 2012.

You have the examples of RG and the USO, those tournaments he played pretty bad from the whole tournament, and he only made SF and QF because of easy draws and because of 50%-Fed > 80% of the ATP Tour.
In tournaments like Wimbledon he had a good start, a weird Benneteau match and a barely-can't-move Malisse match, but excluding those, he played awesome.

In Madrid he started and finished playing great tennis.

In IW, Cincy and WTF he started playing bad and then he rose up his level and played amazing tennis from the rest of the tournament.

In tournaments like Basel, Miami, Rome, Shanghai and most of the Olympics, he played bad from the first day until the end (still he made 2 finals).

I know when to be surprised. You should watch Federer more neutrally.
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Old 02-08-2013, 07:15 AM   #22
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Roger is really a vulture playing an ATP 500 tournament with 2 other top 7 players. He really goes for the weak fields.

Hope we have a fast surface like last year and we watch some great attacking tennis with Roger taking the title of course.
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Old 02-08-2013, 02:07 PM   #23
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

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Originally Posted by duarte_a View Post
Hope we have a fast surface like last year and we watch some great attacking tennis with Roger taking the title of course.
The quick year was 2011 - it was so quick they said they would slow it down to make matches last longer. Last year was kinda slow, even Krajicek said he was surprised how much so.

They've changed surfaces now, so should be somewhere inbetween.
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Old 02-08-2013, 02:08 PM   #24
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

I want to see 2010-11 Indoorerer back, not that clown who played in Basel last year
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Old 02-08-2013, 02:49 PM   #25
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Jerzy as number 7 seed
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Old 02-08-2013, 02:58 PM   #26
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Brutally tough field. DelPo over Jerzy in the final.
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Old 02-08-2013, 03:00 PM   #27
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Janowicz or Monfils
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Old 02-08-2013, 03:05 PM   #28
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

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Janowicz or Monfils
Monfils, really?
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Old 02-08-2013, 03:52 PM   #29
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

It will be between Federer and Gasquet if Richie isn`t tired too much after Montpellier. Hope Richard will have a chance to take a revenge against Tsonga.
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Old 02-08-2013, 04:03 PM   #30
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Default Re: WWW Rotterdam 500: Federer, Del Potro and Tsonga Head the Field

Janowicz vs Juan Martin Del Potro final
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